Last Updated on Tuesday, 03 December 2013 07:29
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Dec 03, 2013 3:30 AM HST
The winds will be flip flopping a few times in the next couple of days. Light to moderate trades are expected to usher in a more stable and drier air mass to the western islands during the next 24 hours. This will be followed by light and variable winds Thursday as a dissipating front, or shearline, brushes Kauai Friday. Another ridge of high pressure filling in behind the shear line will usher in another round of light to moderate trades Saturday.
A broken north to south oriented band of clouds lies across Kauai this hour. Models are pointing to the weak boundary to erode further as the day progresses. This shift have the models suggesting fewer showers for Oahu today and wetter for Kauai especially this afternoon. Separately, a shower area embedded in a trade wind flow will keep eastern Big Island on the damp side for most of today. Some of these clouds and showers may get carried over to windward Maui due to a slightly stiffer trade wind flow there in the next couple of hours. But these clouds will likely get dispersed by midday.
Wednesday should be drier for Kauai, and windward Big Island. Also, trades are expected to be firmer mainly in the moderate range area wide. The ECMWF is still suggesting small craft advisory level winds for waters around the Big Island but we will wait and see. The latest GFS run no longer has a high passing north of the islands Wednesday. Shower wise, expect just a few trade showers favoring the windward and mountain areas.
The trades will be cut short by a fast approaching shear line, resulting in light winds between Wednesday night and Thursday, affecting mainly Kauai and Oahu. Light northeast winds will take over the main Hawaiian islands's area Thursday night, and as the shear line draws closer to Kauai Friday, the northeast winds will strengthen to near small craft advisory level over the island's windward waters. Additionally, it could be a damp day for most of Kauai Friday and Friday night.
The wind forecast for the upcoming weekend has the trades veering to the southeast and south on Sunday. If this pans out, expect haze to spread to the smaller islands from the Big Island. The models are not indicating much showers at this time.
Little change on the marine aspects. Surf is expected to remain below advisory levels along all shores through the forecast period, with a moderate NW swell arriving weds/thurs peaking below advisory levels.
Buoys stretched out along the windward waters are indicating seas of mainly 6 to 7 feet. This swell is likely due to an extensive fetch of easterly winds to the east of the islands. Expect this swell with a short period of around 10 secs to persist for a couple of days. Surf will likely approach but remain below advisory levels along E facing shores.
The latest GFS run has backed off from trades reaching small craft advisory strength this Wednesday around the Big Island. We will be monitoring the trend closely through tonight.
We will continue to monitor whether or not the NE winds with the shear line will reach small craft advisory level for the windward waters of Kauai Friday and Friday night.