Last Updated on Saturday, 25 May 2013 07:31
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE (this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
May 25, 2013 3:30 AM HST
Strong high pressure north of the main Hawaiian islands will keep a trade wind weather regime in place through next week. Best chances of rain remain over windward and mountain areas, with some of the larger showers reaching leeward locations at times. Winds will become locally breezy at times during the holiday weekend. A trough aloft near the area will bring periods of enhanced trade showers especially at night.
Strong sfc high pressure remains centered far NE of the aloha state with an associated ridge axis extending W across the N cpac. Sfc analyses and model data locate the ridge axis around 300 miles N of the islands. This synoptic setup will keep a trade wind weather regime across the island chain through next week with periods of locally breezy conditions during the holiday weekend. Showers will focus over windward and mauka areas, with some of the larger showers reaching leeward locations at times especially during the night hours.
Latest model data show the ridge axis slowly migrating S and getting closer to the islands by early next week. This will cause a brief weakening of the trade wind flow, then strengthening again for the second half of next week as the ridge axis lifts and reinforcing high pressure develops far NE of the aloha state.
Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper lvl trough about 300 miles NW of Kauai, which is still influencing the area by keeping some instability available for enhanced trade showers. But the models gradually push the trough further away from the islands through the rest of the holiday weekend and allows for the atmosphere to become more stable.
Global models are in fair agreement regarding the potential for an upper low developing just E of the Big Island early next week. This could bring increasing instability and enhanced shower activity, especially over the Big Island. However.it is still early to determine how big of an impact this feature will have on the local weather, if it materializes. Therefore, the forecast will continue to carry close-to-climo pops, with values a little higher for early next week especially during the nighttime hours. Rainfall will still focus over windward and mauka areas.