Last Updated on Tuesday, 10 December 2013 06:46
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Dec 10, 2013 4:36 AM HST
Moderate to fresh trade winds will return today and Wednesday. East-southeast flow will periods of variable winds will return Thursday through Saturday with isolated leeward showers becoming possible in the afternoons. An approaching frontal system will increase rainfall chances and possibly thunderstorms this weekend into next week.
The short term forecast remains generally unchanged from earlier in the shift. Trades continue to reassert themselves across the forecast area. They will reach moderate-fresh speeds and hold through most of Wednesday. Generally low PW air upstream supports isolated-scattered pops with light intensity maxing out during the overnight hours.
Developing low pressure northwest of Hawaii will induce southeasterly flow again locally thursday-saturday. A hybrid trade/diurnal regime will result with rain chances/intensity increasing towards the weekend as temps/heights fall aloft due to Pacific westerlies dipping into the area once again. Any afternoon convection or even terrain forced showers could become more robust by Saturday as the atmosphere begins to destabilize.
Global guidance remains consistent this morning suggesting another round of signifcant frontal weather this weekend into early next week. The synoptic scale pattern and model agreement is fair enough to at least nudge the long term towards a more unsettled pattern. Have made tweaks the the forecast to reflect increased rain chances and slight chance of thunderstorms sunday-tuesday in a west to east onset/clearing pattern
Chances of moderate diurnal convection increase over the weekend temps/heights fall aloft as a sharpening 500 mb trough moves into the area. Additional surface cyclogenesis along the aforementioned stalled boundary to the northwest will strengthen and force the front eastward likely increasing chances for heavy rain/thunderstorms Sunday into early next week.
Mixed wnw/nnw swell will producing 8-12 ft surf today. The crossed up nature of the swells may produce sets sneaking through up to 14 ft for some areas. A gradual easing trend will follow through early Friday before another large NW swell builds rapidly possibly reaching advisory levels around 15-18 ft by sunrise Saturday. Also a small out-of-season south swell will produce modest surf along south facing beaches tomorrow through Thursday.
Trade winds will be on the uptick over the next 24 to 36 hours and a small craft advisory will go into effect at 6 am for the windier waters around Maui and the Big Island tuesday-wednesday.