400 AM HST TUE FEB 21 2012
SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LURKING NEARBY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ENHANCED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND BECOME SOUTHERLY FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EASE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN AND DISSIPATE OVER
MAUI COUNTY SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY...
MAINTAINING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

DISCUSSION...
THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE. SO...THE
FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS INTACT.
 A FRONT TAKING OVER THE ISLANDS OVER THE
WEEKEND. SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE TRADE WINDS RETURN EITHER
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS FORTH COMING OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE TRADE WINDS TAKING ANOTHER BREATHER. THIS CONFLICT
IS BEING BROUGHT UPON BY A FRONT THAT STALLS JUST NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI. THE ECMWF SPINS OFF A LOW ALONG THE FRONT ABOUT 300 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT CLEAN. THE NOGAPS
HAS THE LOW 300 MILES NORTH OF OAHU.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WE CONTINUE THE THEME OF ENHANCED TRADE SHOWERS.
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THERE IS ALREADY A SLIGHT SOUTH WIND
COMPONENT ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS WIND COMPONENT HAS
DIRECTED THE SHOWERS TO PASS HARMLESSLY NORTH OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND CONTINUES TO ABSORB MOST OF THE TRADE
SHOWERS. THE GFS IS POINTING TO SOME AFTERNOON ACTIVITY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLAND THEREFORE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS EXTENDED TO 6 PM THIS EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY ALSO
CONTINUES FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE THE WINDS
EASING OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILE SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND
THIS MORNING. IT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH AWAY FROM THE BIG ISLAND
TODAY BEFORE MEANDERING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE 400
MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEATHER RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ENHANCED TOPS TO 25000
FEET STRETCHED OUT ACROSS THE WINDWARD WATERS. AGAIN...THIS SLIGHT
SOUTH TRAJECTORY HAS KEPT THESE SHOWERS FROM COMING ONSHORE OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS SO FAR. WE ANTICIPATE A FEW MORNING SHOWERS MAINLY
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAINS...AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY THE LEEWARD BEACHES. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN
SHOWERY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY...AND SO IS THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES