Last Updated on Thursday, 12 December 2013 07:32
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Dec 12, 2013 4:00 AM HST
Trade winds will gradually diminish the next couple of days and turn southeasterly by the weekend as an advancing front stalls briefly west of the state. Light windward showers will continue into the weekend with some afternoon cloud buildups over interior areas of the islands. The front may resume its course to the islands Sunday into early next week, bringing wetter weather and a slight chance of thunderstorms to the state.
An area of low clouds have reached the islands earlier this morning, providing some showers to mainly windward areas. The surface high pressure that has been providing trade winds to the state is moving steadily east early this morning, as a cold front from the northwest pushes closer to the state. This will lead to a decrease in trade winds for the next couple of days over the islands. Early morning Lihue and Hilo soundings both revealed a typical trade wind weather profile, with low level moisture extending to about 6k feet. Air mass is dry and marginally stable. Therefore precipitation from the passing clouds will be limited. Trade wind weather will continue today, with passing clouds and showers affecting mainly windward areas.
Latest forecast model solutions still indicate this approaching front will stall west of Kauai in the coming days. Therefore southeasterly winds ahead of this system will slowly spread over the western islands by the weekend, while more typical trade winds will prevail over Maui county and the Big Island. The western islands may see a hybrid convective and trade wind weather regime, with land and sea breezes becoming more prominent by the weekend. Clouds and possible showers will develop over the interior sections of the islands under day time heating, while night time cooling will result in partial clearing of skies over those islands. Low clouds carried by the winds may still affect the windward areas at times. Maui county as well the Big Island should see more typical trade wind weather, with passing low clouds and showers affecting mainly windward and mountain areas. Volcanic haze from the Big Island may reach the western islands at times under the increasing southeasterly wind flow.
The stalled front is still expected to resume its advance towards to the islands by the later part of the weekend into early next week as another system from further northwest pushes east. The chance of rain will increase over Kauai Saturday night as the front edges closer to the island, then spread over Oahu and Maui county by Sunday into early next week as the front moves east. The atmosphere will also become more unstable over the islands as cold air aloft associated with the front reaches the state, bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms Sunday through early next week, with possible heavier rainfall.
The global model solutions diverge somewhat in the extended period over the islands, though both models have another frontal system approaching the state from the northwest. Gfs has a surface trough developing east of the islands, resulting in northeast trade winds over the state while the european model just indicate an area of moisture persist east of the state, with southeasterly winds over the islands ahead of the frontal system. Have sided with GFS at time though this forecast certainly is subjected to change with future model runs
The small craft advisory has been cancelled with the weakening winds. A large NW swell will build rapidly Friday afternoon, bringing possible advisory level surf for north and west facing shores Friday afternoon through Saturday. This swell may be large enough to bring small craft seas conditions to the exposed coastal waters for the weekend.