Last Updated on Monday, 21 July 2014 07:45
BIG SURF PICTURE Friday 7/11/14
The Jet is split now and not condusive to storms pointed to Hawaii for over 7 days. There's a lot of high pressure off the coast of NZL. So the outlook is not great after the upcoming swells. Last weeks Jet was real good tho; from the end of June starting in the Taz for tons of SW to SSW swell, the Jet bent up toward the equator far off NZL enhancing/steering a beautiful storm for one of the better South swells of the summer July 14-16.
Recent-current: Looking pretty average now with chest high and max head high sets from the SSW down from 15 sec to 13 sec. Lotsa fetch in and below the Taz sea from end of June into Wednesday 7/2. The most recent NE push was ‘captured’ (fetch pointed same way as the storms track). The limiting factor was the cheese grater Islands of Fiji and Samoa. We still got 3’ 15 second 'swells' Wed. peaking 3’ 14 sec Thursday. This pegged 'surf' hts at 2-4' late Wednesday into Thursday at the peak. (observations did see/ride 5' sets at top reefs tho' only a few). We claimed surf of 2-3 maybe 4’ at top spots top sets from the SW-SSW with long waits and that's what it was overall.
Next: Another Taz pulse will keep us at 1-2 occ 3 into Saturday the 12th. Also a gale low off the east coast of NZL Sat the 5th could push surf up from a more S to SSW angle of 2-3' Saturday, too. This one will be over taken by a larger swell filling late afternoon Sunday the 13th.
Last but not least: The Jet shifted east toward the longitude of Tahiti from the 4th-8th. On Sunday/ Monday 7/6-7 a big powerful Low comes up of the Ice shelf with a perfect NNE track and thus a long (1000 mile) captured fetch with top sea hts at 30-35’. Tho’ the storm weakens by Wed the 9th it’s very broad allowing the fetch to stick around and nose north of NZL closer to Hawaii. The surf from this source will be one of the longest lasting of the summer (5 days). WW3 now calls for 2’ 18-20 seconds by 2pm Sunday with 3' 16 sec Monday noonish and reaching 4’ 15 seconds from the South Monday nite and holding into Tuesday. Right now we’re going with late arrival Sunday then up to advry levels Monday evening's session of 3-5’ and more consistent higher sets into Tuesday.
Last 2: We dont see anything from the SSW but we do see some 14 second SSE swell bumping up Sunday the 20th from a SE tracking powerful Low under Tahiti this weekend. The issue is the track.
There's a small Taz Low moving NE Monday the 14th but wont give out more than 2.5' SW swell at 14 seconds Monday the 21st.
(See SPAC models HERE)
The Jet stream is weak but still showing some signs for background enhancement with troughing near the gulf and from the central aleutians Sunday. By Tuesday a trough comes off Japan stretching out to the dateline then drops to about 35-40N (900-1200 miles). for the season.
Recent: The N swell peaked Wednesday afternoon at just over 3’ at Laniakea and has faded to barely 1’ from the NE today. The gale storm 1200 miles N tracked NNE from last weekend into Monday leading to 11 seconds and beautiful lines.
Next: a small 0-1 maybe 2’ WNW (305) arrives late Sunday into Monday from an east bound Low off N Japan last Monday-Tuesday. The weak gale storm stays ~2400 miles away and short periods of 10 seconds wont do much for power or pizzazz but will make it barely rideable for a day...
Last: nothing out 7 days.
(See NPAC models HERE)
Windward: Wind swell will be average of 1-3’ with slight variation downward esp Sunday-Monday when the ridge weakens and drops south lightening the Trades and associated swell. Former storm Fausta may keep it up in the 3' zone but not certain.
Tropics: Another new BIG Typhoon is forming this weekend off the Filipines with a direct path east toward land. It's expected to do more than clip Luzon Wednesday. Not good. The 1st super Typhoon Neoguri that formed off the Philippines the 4th with a NW track toward Taiwan intensified and broadened into Monday with 45’ seas and reached land and created 20' surf in Taiwan. The biggest storm on record for July. Hawaii wont see surf but it was the most significant storm on planet earth. The remnants are now off Japan.
Remnants of Fausta Friday is only a trough of Low pressure moving WNW into Sunday. We’ll still see longer than average period 9 sec East swell from this source but not much higher than the local wind swell of 1-3+ for the Big Is and 1-3' for most other Islands Eastern to SE exposures. Sunday-Monday would be the peak.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|