Last Updated on Thursday, 05 December 2013 18:28
BIG SURF PICTURE Thursday 12/5/13
NPAC Same scene the last couple weeks. The Jet Stream gets elongated off Japan with a NNE tilt to the dateline. It dips toward us from the dateline all the way to our North leading to the drop in trades and SE winds, a front, the NW swell etc...The Low has pushed the High to the east and its now centered between us and the west coast. The jet keeps up its extension off Japan with off and on deepening over the next 5 days. then it dissapates hinting of a break in swells from Dec 10th. however, another dip is scheduled for Thursday 12/12 leading to weather, N swells and another disrruption of Trades.
Wind and weather: A front approaching from the northwest this evening will weaken to a shear line near the Kauai Channel on Friday. High pressure will develop northwest of Kauai late Sunday as the remnants of the shear line move away to the north.Winds veered to the southeast and variables with more of the same seabreezy pattern through early next week. Details HERE.
Currently: NW waves are pumping and peaking today with perfect SE offshores and ranging 5-7'. The source was a 45-55kt ESE bound Low last Sunday-Monday. But the fetch was short lived limiting size and period.
Next: a new Low popped near the dateline Monday with 25-35kts about 1000 miles away Wednesday. We should get a 4-6' NW push Friday afternoon.
Next: This Low strenthens Wed-thur and moves NNE then stalls friday. Watch for a rise Saturday afternoon to maybe 6' from a more NNW. The fetch is long since the system occluded, plus the fetch got to within 900 miles. So we expect solid 6-8' NNW to last Sunday and only a foot less Monday. A decent chance of a pulse back to almost 5-7' tuesday from the same long Lows final fetch.
Next: A weak low near the central Aleutians tracks South sunday Monday and should bring us up to 2-4' thursday the 12th.
Last: Not a great outlook for fat WNW's for Pipe until last days but.... A compact Low spawns near the dateline Wed 12/11 and by Thursday tracks South with 25' seas and a final ESE track coming to only 300 miles away. We could see a N Friday in the high range but not all model concur. so lets wait and see.
Last Last: slight chance of a 10' WNW on 12/19 Thursday. But we must get closer.
The Jet actually took a nice NNE track up toward HI Monday the 25th and supported a Low to follow the same track. The 15 second SSW from this source will only reach 2' and maybe near 3' filling Tuesday and peaking Wednesday on the 4th of December. See below.
Current: SSW of waist high or barely 2'. The tiny background 2' SSW fills Tuesday Dec 3 from a gale Low tracking NE 2 Monday-Tuesday ago. No big deal but it does keep town rideable in Dec.
LAst: long range model fantasy hint of a better 15 second SSW swell filling Monday the 9th. It could get solid 2-3' for 2 days. A Low comes up ENE off the NZL east coast monday Dec 2nd. This is an 'out of season' swell we'd be happy with even during the Summer. Lets wait and see if models and actual winds confirm this Monday.
East Shores: pure upstream trade swell. The Storms passing close to HI are disrupting the usual ongoing trade regime. But the High to the NE is still producing from a distance waves up to 2-3'. This eases hereon.
Tropical: No storms. Thnk God.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|