Last Updated on Wednesday, 05 March 2014 08:13
BIG SURF PICTURE 3/2/14 Wednesday update
The Jet is rocking again; its Low and consolidated with 180+ kts and most of its deep troughing occuring from the 2400 miles NW of us all the way to our North. The trough thickens off from Hawaii to California with a ENE tilt. The Flow looks good from off Japan but weakens west of the dateline by Friday with some 180kts up there to enhance Low development. By sunday-monday the Jet looks great all the way past the dateline dipping almost ontop of HI for ongoing potential for storms through the middle of the month.
Currently, it's still up at Warning levels. A decent Low spawned on our side of the dateline 1500 miles NW; this one was connected to the BIG ONE Sunday for a close follow up boost. The key feature is its perfect SE track toward HI (captured fetch) nosing to under 200 miles away; this will do 2 things 1. create a longer lasting episode and 2. This proximity will allow for little decay time so the 25' seas out in the open ocean will end up pushing the buoys/swells to 12' 14 seconds or surf on the outer reefs of 10-15+' Tuesday the 4th through Wednesday.
Next: Upgrade as a complex array of Lows form, build and merge Thursday the 6th crossing the dateline nosing to within 600 miles by Friday! This one has a captured fetch as it trackes SE with 32' seas right toward Hawaii. We should see some 14' 15 second NW swells breaking 12-20' at its peak; this will be a notch bigger than the last one. She'll be filling late Friday midday the 7th peaking early Saturday the 8th with solid 10- 15' Sunday.
Next: A compact but powerful Low is spawning off Japan this weekend. Her east track bring her across the dateline 1200 out to our West where 40' seas are produced thnks to the storm force gales of 55+kts. The Low passes to our N Tuesday as she weakens and heads NE to the gulf. Thnks to the proximity and seas we'll see yet another X Large event Wednesday 3/12 at dawn. We'll claim 12' 16 sec creating 12-18' surf on outer reefs. The Bay to hit 15'.
Last: Another strong system pops Tuesday 3/11 near the same spot as the last one or 1800 miles to our NW; it has the same East track and weakens while crossing the dateline through Wednesday the 12th. Seas reach 38' but most the energy passed North. Still, we will get some solid 8-12+ NW by dawn Saturday the 15th. 18 sec forerunners hit noon Friday.
Long range forecasts love to fantasize. Meaning they run hot or make promises they dont usually keep.
The Jet pattern down under is near nill for swell production for a week.
Currently:We have a declining SSW at 2.5' and some NW wrap too. Some areas still seeing some remnant 3' sets.
The source was the Jet which fattened up Sunday-Monday end of Feb with a trough under NZL and hugged its SE coast. A storm is spawned in this jet at the surface level by Monday the 24th but the track was zonal and tho' she's far SE she got a big upgrade by the models with 30+' seas. Models showed 2' 15 sec swells or 3' SSW surf filled in Sunday afternoon the 2nd peaking Monday-Tuesday the 3rd-4th. This was overlapped by the WNW Sunday-Monday which got 3+' solid as well.
Next: storminess forms east of NZL today Wed. intensifying Thursday but weakening fast. Still, she hangs out for awhile and is further N than the last storm thus we'll go ahead a claim some 14 second, 1-3' SSW surf filling Tuesday into Wednesday the 10-11th.
Last: A NE tracking Low spawns SE of NZL Tuesday the 11th with 30' seas. She weakens by Wednesday but is fairly broad. We'll go with 1-3' surf from the SSW with 15 seconds filling Monday the 17th and holding into Tuesday and also lasting a long time thnks to the long reinforcing fetches.
The Windward side see’s North 3’ wrap and small 2’ wind swell off and on through the period; lite swirling winds have made it clean and inviting for the whole Windward side.
It's planning on minimal Trade winds swell size out 7 days thnks to winter storm patterns and lack of High pressure domination. But tons of N wrap are still in the picture.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|