BIG SURF PICTURE Thursday 8/21/14

SPAC:

The jet is mostly zonal till Saturday when we see a slight NE tilting trough. But it really gets good with deeper troughing to the SE of NZL and a NNE flow Monday-Wed the 25-27. This should lead to tons of above average SSW swells end of Aug and into Sept.

Recent: It's been a good August. We just finished a fun 2-3+' South from a Low that was far to the ESE of NZL and another Low off North NZL just over a week ago and pushed out some fun surf for a few days. This is currently overrun by a bigger better event.  

Next: High Surf advsy (8' faces) or 2-4+’ SSW surfer scale waves with long period surf Thursday after midday into Saturday morning for the Dukes Oceanfest! The Source was a powerful Low with 55-60kts comes into our window SE of NZL splitting it potential as it slammed into NZL. Some of its fetch hugged the East coast with a captured fetch. 18 sec forerunners popped Wed the 20th and should be reaching 3’ 16 sec swells or 2-4+ SSW surf Thursday afternoon and holding with much more consistency Friday at this size before backing down only alittle this coming weekend for the Dukes Finals. There was a much closer fetch from the end phases of this storms journey just 3500miles away which will add shorter periods to the longer period SSW Friday into Saturday. Watch for tons of sets all weekend.

Next: More E tracking Lows SE of NZL kept coming this week sending most their energy to out east off to the Americas. Still, sideband swell should fill 2' 16 sec swell late Saturday into Sunday overlapping the prior swell and keeping us in the fun zone into Tuesday.

Next: WW3 shows back ground fetch zones all along NZL for ongoing small summer time levels. By Sat the fetch area is broad and to the NE of NZL only 3500 miles off. We can expect a rising SSW Thursday from this source of 3' 15 sec 'swells' reaching near 4' 14 sec Sat-Sunday leading to 'surf' of 3-5' Friday as it peaks.

Next: Models show a powerful 30-35' sea storm to the SE of NZL by this Tuesday the 26th. The key is a perfect NNE track with a captured fetch for 3 days. Buoys will pop with 20 sec forerunners Monday as it fills and peaks Tuesday Sept 2nd with swells of 3' 16 seconds and surf refracting/shoaling up to 3-5' from the SSW-S.

Last: Wed-Thursday 8/27-28....an even more intense low with 40' seas and a NE track far ESE of NZL pumps out new High Surf Adv on the heals of the last swell. WW3 predicts 3' 18 sec Wed 9/3 and a peak of 4' 16 seconds. If the model fantasy comes true this will mean the best back to back swells of the summer. Easy 6' for 2.5 days. Long range output most often run 'hot' or overcall the episode.

(See SPAC models HERE)

NPAC

The Jet stream is weak far to the North with no signs of surface Low enhancement out 7 days.

Recently: It's all gone...Days and days of N-ENE Hurrincane swell and Typhoon swell and even a few WNW-NNW 'Fall like' ground swells...but we'll still remember this as one of the best Augusts on record.

Next: it's all about the trade wrap and NE-ENE swells from the tropics. See below. Right now models over calling the newest Big TS storm to bring us 3-6' 14 second ENE swell Saturday 8/30.

(See NPAC models HERE)

Windward side: We’ve have small 1-2’ East swell from generic local and upstream trades. Minor variation between 2' and 3’ surf over the next 7 days thnks to our Summer time High pressure lodged to the NE.

Tropics: We have quite a bit going on in the east pac tropics. 2 storms Lowell and Karina tracking North and merging. Not to worry, the systems should dissapate this weekend. Longer period swell from these storms should fill into easy 3' Sunday-Tuesday.  Long range models do show another system taking shape Sunday-Tuesday. Models have it getting pretty big as it moves ENE to East and by Thursday the 28th; it's 1200 miles wide about 6-900 miles off Baja. We'll keep an eye on it and likely East swell near end of Aug.

 

FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link  http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
LocationAdvisoryWarning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet