BIG SURF PICTURE Friday 7/25/14


The N Jet is and has been zonal and strongest of the two spit branches. There's a slight flow NE off to the SE of NZL Wed-Thursday. A better bigger NE flow is seen today Friday thru the weekend which is good news.

Recent-current: Looking pretty average now with waist high and a few isolated chest high sets from the SSE and tiny 2' SSW. There's been Taz sea sources and off to the East of NZL about 10-14 days ago. Plus a fetch to the SE of Tahiti for our short period SSE which hit pretty solid 3'. The main swell last week 14-18th lasted 5 days solid and hit 6' at some spots will be the best one for July as forecasted. This was a 3 sourced swell that allowed seas to 'add' to eachother. Fairly rare. Really sweet.

Next: We had some fetch hugging Australia in the Taz a week ago plus a storm spinning off the N Island of NZL. The Taz fetch ends up fatting up but with lighter winds. Still a background 1' 14 sec SW fills in later today leading to some 2' sets Saturday and ramping up a notch Sunday-Monday to 3' sets or head high.

Next and Next: The Taz fetch drifts over NZL to it's east coast by Tuesday 22nd as another Low far SE of NZL spins off higher winds for some added 16 second SSW swell a day later bringing back to back swells. The buoy forecast (likely running alittle hot) is 3' 14 seconds hitting midday Tuesday the 29th peaking Wednesday 30th with surf reaching solid 2-4' Hawaiian Scale or 2-3' overhead at top spots top sets (SNN calls the largest range not the average).

NExt and NExt: Surf will climb Wed eve into Thursday and even Friday as another System (with a NE track and captured fetch and 30's seas) adds to the mix off NZL's N coast.  If the models pan out late friday should hit 4' and maybe reach 5' Saturday Aug 2nd from the SSW. Fetches can add to existing seas and that's what we're looking for here.

Next to Last: A  low forms straight South of us Tuesday the 29th about 1200 miles under Tahiti but tracks ENE out of our window. But bits of it will get here Tuesday Aug 5th into Thursday the 7th from the South with 2' swells and 15 sec forerunners. The peak surf could reach easy 3' for a day and a half.

LAst: A giant storm deep in the TAz is there Wednesday the 30th but the track is east. Models are likely to overcall how much of this get here Wed the 6th. Right now they claim a peak of 3' 18 seconds; more likely 2' swell with long periods for deep water spots. 

(See SPAC models HERE)


The Jet stream is above the Aleutians disallowing any WNW-NNW ground swell. Over the weekend however, into next week, we see an effort in the weak Jet to extend off N. Japan all the way to the dateline.  This does support a surface Low for another out of season WNW early August. (Details below). By Tuesday the 29th the Jet tilts ENE  but with only about 100mph so nada enough for anything. Note: Upper levels also reveal trouhiness over the Islands this weekend past Tuesday which is forecast to assist in a bit more rain fall.

Recent: High pressure domination leads to off and on tiny NE wind wrap up to maybe 2' for isolated spots. Very small 1/2' WNW hints have been in the mix but pretty much unridable.

Next: A tiny weak 25kt Low spawns off Hakkaido N. Japan monday 7/28 tracking East and dissappating Tuesday. A small 0-1 maybe 2’ WNW (305) arrives late Saturday 8/2 peaks at 2' Sunday and fades into Monday.  The weak gale storm stays ~2000 miles away and short periods of 10-11 seconds wont do much for power or pizzazz but will make it rideable for a day or two...

Last: nothing out 7 days.

(See NPAC models HERE)

Windward: Wind swell will be average of 1-2+’ with slight variation downward esp Sunday-Monday when the trades freshen. The Tropical systems moving our way will add longer period E to SE swell all week. peaks likely to be 3' maybe 4'.

Tropics: Super active season so far. Another new Typhoon is forming this off the Filipines  tuesday with a slow west track. It's huge by Thursday. We also have a Low 1200 miles to the east of the Big Is Sunday. All these storms from Baja are expected to weaken as they near then pass under the Hawaiian Islands next week of the 28th. Tons of East swell tho' not huge.


FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet