BIG SURF PICTURE 4/12/14 Saturday update

The Jet has a 150mph trough inbetween Japan and HI at 30-40N latitude or 600-1200 miles north of us. There's lotsa of broad weak Jet winds from the dateline to over Hawaii thus the wetter weather. A strong High bounces the Jet up and over HI Sunday into next week. Also a new trough moves our way of Japan again Monday allowing for slight potential for continued storm development. By Friday the 18th its very weak tho' extended across the NPAC to the west coast. Hinting of a long term quite period.

Currently, we have a nice sized high surf advsry level 15 second NW reaching heights of solid 8' or triple overhead for Pipe and Sunset. Winds are NE sideshore but hey its got power. The source of Saturday's peaking event was a broad gale near the Kurils last Sunday moving east making for 28' seas. This swell will drop a lot to about 3-4' maybe 5' Sunday morning.

Next: A Low pops on the charts Friday 4/11 near the Kurils Is again but this ones smaller and farther away (2200 miles). Winds are stronger but wont make up for the afore mentioned factors. She'll build Wed nite the 16th peaking 5-7' Thursday from the WNW.

Last: The Jet goes zonal mid April with quick eastbound Lows bring short lived smaller spring like/small NNW surf next Saturday. Keep you posted. Better shot of NW possible on Thursday the 24th.

Long range models love to fantasize. Meaning they run 'hot' making promises they can't always keep.

(See HERE)

SPAC: The Jet is weak and zonal or west to east from Sat to Wed. the 16th when a weak NE flow shows esp by Friday-Sunday. The main push for swell will move out of our window. 

Currently: Distant past sources make for background 14 seconds with just 1' swell...this leads to 2' surf for most spots thru next weekend. Below average.

Next: If long range outlook stands the test of time we'll get a 2' SSW Thursday the 24th from a marginal NE bound Low Thursday the 17th.

Last: Friday the 18th shows a large Low far south of Tahiti ramping to 35' seas by Saturday as it tracks ENE out of our window; maybe some long period 2-3' sideband SSE surf Saturday the 26th.

East Shores:

The Windward side see’s small 2' ENE wind swell at 8 seconds ramping to 2-4' this weekend esp Sunday into Monday the 14th from increasing trades from the building strong High. Chance of high surf advsy surf. Model hint of Trade fetch weakening Tuesday thus a weakeing windwave swell esp by Wednesday. Typical spring.

FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link  http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
LocationAdvisoryWarning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet