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It was and is an unusual week for waves, winds and weather. The culprit was a storm/cold front; it was associated with a low pressure fairly close to the northeast earlier in the week. This pushed the high-pressure ridge down over the Islands, bidding aloha to our typical trades and skies.
4' NW REINFORCEMENT ALL WEEKEND
SAFETY AND RESCUE SPECIALISTS SURF SESSION AT PYRAMID ROCK THIS SAT AND SUNDAY SURF PERMITTING
HAZY VOGGY SKIES,CLOUDY AFTERNOONS ALONG W/ AFTERNOON ONSHORE SEA BREEZES...LIGHT TRADES EVENTUALLY BEGIN FILTERING IN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
SNN SURF CENTER BY CHIEF SURFING OFFICER (CSO) GARY 'GQ' KEWLEY
645AM OAHU OBSERVATIONS: FRIDAY....GO EARLY
BILLABONG PRO FINAL DAY OVER: BRUNO SANTOS BEATS MANOA DROLLET ...results HERE RATINGS HERE
NOON: NORTHSHORE'S 5-8' NNW TOP SETS,TOP SPOTS BUT BLOWN, WESTSHORE'S UP 2-5' POOR, EASTSIDE DOWN 0-1', SANDYS HOLDS 0-OCC. 2',TOP SOUTH SHORE TOP SPOTS AT 0-1.5'; SEE SNN METEOROLOGIST MATT FOR 'WHY'S AND WHAT'S THE WEATHER'
BIG PICTURE: FRIDAY NORTH PAC....it did get 8' as originally forecasted (near 15' crest to trough at sunset's peak) the weather/wave model still sees high pressure getting pushed down by the storm/front that brings up rare seasonal events thursday into Monday. a variable/Kona/seabreeze pattern due to this Low thru Friday...then NE winds filter in Saturday. a storm in spring from the NNW to N from thursday into Sunday.....on the 13th, the GFS models show a deepening large low east of the dateline about 40 north lat.; it gets an extremely wide fetch area develop (35+kts & up to 20' seas) on its SW flank by Tuesday and winds get within 800mi away...most of this energy passes east...but the fetch was wide enough to push the bigger seas with less decay. we saw 5-7' local scale average thursday into Friday at peak times...As the system tracks east and up into Gulf and it deepens its core in the 350-360 band...this should add in 4' North energy Friday nite into Saturday also, a second system behind the last one about 1500 away should provide 3-4' NNW waves on sunday into Monday.Typhoon Rammasunlost pizzazz off Japan and pushing out some small- long 15 second period 1-3' west (260) energy by Sunday the 18th..LAST DAY ON MODELS show a small Low from on Monday 5/19 east of the dateline which may keep us at least head high around Wednesday late..plus, another typhoon may recurve off Japan...less chance for this one.(stayed tuned for fine and not-so-fine tuning). SOUTH PAC LONG RANGE IMPROVES! Read on...1st, Thursday 5/8 models show more 'back ground' type waves coming due to the TAZ swells shadowing from all the SPAC Islands ...A big storm on the tip of New Z. pushes out some 20' seas but they have a long way to go...watch for some 1-2 max SW swell into the weekend..2nd, For today,a powerful, compact storm sets up far out the east of Tahiti(120west) and stays in place for a long lasting fetch of 40-50kts and ~30' seas in the 140-150 band. This should push up at good 2-4+' SSE swell for the Big I. for 3 or 4 days starting forerunners late Monday the 19th rising into Wednesday 5/21...the issue here is how the Big Is. blocks this angle for Oahu. 3rd, LONG RANGE NOGAPS shows a storm below NZ's east coast that builds a fat fetch (~800mi long and wide) set up this Friday 5/16. broad 25' seas are likely so we can hope for solid 2-3' SSW around Friday the 23rd and it'll last for over 3 days... (expect long adjustments on these long rangers).
JET STREAMS: NORTH PAC: ..it comes back together real well and zonal from japan all the way past the dateline up around 40-50north lat...SOUTH PAC: looking bad again with equatorial bound flows only in the TAZ SEA...alittle out to the Souteast of NZ.
View Video presentation @ LOCAL SWELL TRACKER LINK CLICK HERE
President Bush’s daughter, Jenna, is got married this weekend in Crawford, Texas. It was a relatively small wedding with only her family’s loved ones — the CEOs of the five major oil companies.
SURF NEWS NETWORK'S WEATHER CENTER BY SNN SURF METEOROLOGIST MATT WANINK *Questions/Comments/Feedback: matt@surfnewsnetwork.com
Saturday May 17, 2008 issued by 7am HST
TODAYS WEATHER:
HAZY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH A CLOUD FREE MORNING WITH LIGHT LAND BREEZES. THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE AND A FEW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP, CONDITIONS STAYING DRY THOUGH.
**HONOLULU HIGHS 82-85°F LOWS 69-71°F. LOWS AT BEACHES 62-67°F**
SATELLITE DISCUSSION: INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING VERY FEW CLOUDS AROUND THE ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT MORE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS STABLE.
REGIONAL DISCUSSION & FORECAST: A WEAK SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO STRADDLE THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, KEEPING CIRCULATION ACROSS THE ISLAND VERY LIGHT AND LARGELY CONTROLLED BY DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A SUBTLE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE MID LATITUDE STORM TRACK) WILL RETURN LIGHT TRADES TOMORROW. THE LIGHT TRADES, MOST ACTIVELY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE STAGNANT WEATHER POSSIBLY RETURNS.
CENTRAL & EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE DISCUSSION:
EASTERN PACIFIC - NO CURRENT ACTIVITY
CENTRAL PACIFIC - HURRICANE SEASON BEGINS JUNE 1, 2008 National Hurricane Center:(Click HERE) Weather Underground Tropical Weather:(Click HERE)
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HURRICANE INFORMATION
2008 Names: -Eastern Pacific: Alma, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Genevieve, Heran, Iselle, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Nobert, Odile, etc. -Central Pacific: Akoni, Ema, Hone, Iona, Keli, Lala, Moke, etc.
Conditions for Hurricane Development: -Water temperature of at least 80F and a depth of 150ft -A pre-existing disturbance (a storm; rising air) -Away from the equator N and S (roughly 300miles) -Low vertical shear amounts (to keep the storm from blowing apart) -Moist air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere