Surf Summary & News Breaks
SNN CHIEF SURFING OFFICER: GARY KEWLEY
Your Exclusive 6:45am OBZ: and the surf scene for Wednesday 5/16/12
Trades came back late Tuesday with nice weather overall with passing cloud patches.
4am HI time: John John Florence beats Joel Parkinson to win the the Billabong Rio Pro. Go HERE
Couple other news bits: Box Jelly's along south and super low tides for dawn patrol.
Country: Up on on N-NE swell at 1-2.5' only at focal reefs. WEST: Holding on S at 0-1+ with a glassy dawn and offshores later. TOWN: Down and dropping on S at mostly 1-2' (waist) with good conditions; light offshore winds Diamond Head: Down and dropping at 2-3' on South and lined up and decent but not quite like its been the last few epic days. SANDYS: Eased slightly at 1-2 occ +' on sets on mix of with trade winds and decent. EAST: MAKAPU'U down this morning on Trade swell at 0-1+' and bumpy and rising a pinch on NE later.
Surf News etc:
Sally Fitzgibbons beats Coco Ho to win the Billabong Rio Pro. Go HERE
Get your entries in for the Local Motion Surf Into Summer HERE
Get the actual current Winds Statewide in one glance ...just go HERE ( link is the 4th drop down under weather)
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Catch the why, when and where of your waves and weather once a week...
BIG SURF PICTURE Monday 5/14/12
NPAC: The Jet dipped south toward us for a day then it begins to go zonal off to our east into the Gulf and is breaking up to our east. We see some small 2' N from this scenario later Monday and then 3' NNE later Tuesday. Some troughing off Japan 'may' lead to a tiny 2' WNW Saturday.
Currently.....seeing the stirring of near 2' from the N as the day goes on. Only focus spots.
Source: A gale fetch between a High off Calif and a tiny Low to our NNE this past wkend could lead to a few chest maybe head high NNE late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Next: we'll keep an eye on a weak and distant gale Friday 5/11 off Japan moving our way; but it has only a slight chance of producing a 2' WNW-NW Saturday.
Iffy tiny NNW on sunday and after this nothing.
SPAC: The Northern Jet off NZL is zonal over the next week with no significant surf sources over the coming week.
We did have a sideband swell on Mothers Day up to near 4' top spots as the legend continues. Thnks Mom.
Source: A storm force 45-55kt Low moving ENE over a week ago was further east and tracking more zonal than the last couple swell producers; still the forenners were 21 sec thanks to the high near hurricane force winds and we had a south of 2-3+' filling on Sat and peaking Sunday as it veered more SSE.
Next: some fetch far SE off NZL (but closer than the preceding storm) last Wednesday-Thursday 5/9-10 should lead to 3' sets later Wednesday peaking Thursday 5/17 with 15 sec. The storm was moving west to east mostly but had more pointing our way than the last one.
Next: some fetch to our south last Friday-Sat. could keep back ground 2' South this weekend.
Next: A Taz storm points fetch up Monday-Tuesday which should bring in tiny 2' SW swells around Tuesday 5/22. Fiji will enjoy solid swell.
Last: Thursday 5/17 models show a gale with captured fetch (both the low and its winds pointing up our way) way right off NZL east coast...these narrower fetches lose more energy with the 4000 miles so lets claim 1-2 maybe 3' filling Thursday 5/24.
East Shores: Same ole....the usual flucuations of Spring Trade hts of 2' and up to 3' from Trades and occas NE pulses.
FETCH: often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE (this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
SYNOPSIS...VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING
FRONT MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ON KAUAI LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST KEEPING
ISOLATED FRONTAL PRECIP CONFINED TO KAUAI AND SURROUNDING COASTAL
ZONES. THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH IN AREA LIFTS OUT
AND PRESSURES/HEIGHTS RISE OVER LATITUDES JUST NORTH OF HAWAII.
ALL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN IN A DIURNAL PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WE SLOWLY TRANSITION BACK TO TRADES...ALTHOUGH KAUAI
MAY SEE ADDITIONAL LIGHT FRONTAL SHOWERS. THE TRADES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES WITH
A MORE TYPICAL MAY WINDWARD/MOUNTAIN PRECIP PATTERN BEGINNING.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POLAR JET WILL DROP SOUTH AND BECOME MORE
ZONAL ALONG 40N TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPRESS SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING TO OUR NORTH. TRADES SHOULD RESPOND BY WEAKENING LOCALLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE...
WAIST-SHOULDER HIGH SOUTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE ALONG SOUTHERLY
EXPOSURES THIS WEEK WITH MODEST DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS. ONLY
MINIMAL SURF IS EXPECTED FOR NORTH FACERS. TRADE SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THIS WEEK. THE SURF FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED SO
CHECK IT OUT FOR GREATER DETAILS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH TUESDAY SO NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER
THE KAUAI COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE
CHANNELS MAY REACH CRITERIA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
ONCE TRADES ARE BACK IN GEAR.
