BIG SURF PICTURE Wednesday 12/11/13 UPGRADE FOR SATURDAY SWELL WHICH COULD BE TOO BIG FOR PIPE MASTERS.
NPAC Today The Jet is weak and quite for a few days with a loop up and over Hawaii 1200 miles North. Then the Tokyo Express begins taking off from Thursday on. As the Jet Stream drops and deepens it gets elongated off Japan to the dateline. This long range trend will lead to above average WNW swells from about mid December to Christmas. A High sticks around to our ENE. But lotsa troughiness continues over the Islands leading to unstable weather off and on. A typical winter.
Wind and weather: Clear and Stable now but a front approaching from the northwest end of the week changes things. So Locally moderate to fresh trade winds will continue through Wednesday then Winds will turn east-southeast Friday into Saturday as a convective pattern returns our late morning seabreezes. Details HERE.
Currently: Tuesday saw 4-6+' WNW mixed with a smaller NNW with ENE trades lead to a great day of comp for the Pipe Masters. Now its just 2-4' max. These swells came from a Low that got close to HI late last week. The Low shifted and had 30' seas out west and sent some more our way. There was also another Low near the dateline Saturday which moved ENE and got close again. This one gave us that great reinforement Tuesday to easy 6'.
Next: An upgrade is claimed. A very big one is on the way. A bigger more powerful storm forms our side of the dateline Wednesday peaking with 55kts and 25-30' seas only 1000 miles off. It tracks ESE with a captured fetch and WW3 predicts 11' swell at 15 seconds. But according to Pat Caldwell Wave Watch 3 have been undercalling closer events recently. We're going to go middle ground and claim 10-15' from the WNW peaking Saturday with surf on outer reefs and the Bay cracking. This will then veer NW Sunday as it fades fast tof 10'...the winds and weather put an 'iffy' on condtions late morning into afternoon.
Last: Models show a broad big Low forming off Japan Monday. Its intensifies and tracks our way covering 1/2 the West Pac Tuesday-Wednesday. 'If' this thing pans out it could produce 'Eddie Aikau' level WNW swell. Shadowing (up to 294 degrees) could be a factor due to this extreme west angle. One way or another we're in for a long lasting spell of very large surf by 12/21 Saturday.
SPAC Current: a fading 1-2+' S to SSW filled Monday and peaked 3' Tuesday. A wide storm far SE of NZL early Dec sending most the swell to our SE but still we did see some fun surf.
LAst: A taz sea swell could show up Friday or Saturday as model show activity last Friday. But no more then 2' SW.
Iffy SSE: there's a wide Low SSE of Tahiti recently and we could see some 2' SSE background sideband surf around Tuesday or Wednesday 17-18.
We go into a flat zone before Christmas.
East Shores: pure upstream 3' trade swell with N mix. The Storms passing close to HI are disrupting the usual ongoing trade regime. But the High to the NE is still producing from a distance waves up to 1-3'. This eases this weekend due to the front.
FETCH: often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time)
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php