BIG SURF PICTURE 3/2/14 Sunday update
The Jet is rocking again; its Low with most of its deeper troughing occuring from the dateline to several hundred miles to our NE. On Sunday it drops to nearly ontop of us tho' from Japan to Hawaii the flow is broken. By Tuesday she consolidates once again off Japan with a dip to our latitude where there's a split. The trough thickens off from Hawaii to California. The Flow looks good from Japan all the way to us by Friday with some 160kts up there....
Currently, XX large 15-20 occ 25 sets on the 3rd reefs outside Pipe and Sunset with stormy wobble texure. buoys went from 5' 17 sec predawn Saturdat to 18' 16 seconds by Noon! Surf hts went from 3' early to 5' around 3pm and it'll really ramped up late to 12' around 6pm. Source: A Low bombed or 'dropped' in pressure sharply last Wednesday off 2000 miles away. This winter caliber storm 'occluded' or stalled and will bring one of the entire years biggest surf Saturday nite through Monday. She's broad so watch for a wide swath of 280-330 WNW-NW (partial shadowing). The winds reached 65kts at its center with some seas reaching 35' under 2000 miles away. Thus, the XXX Large surf.
Key point: winds with be light to moderate NW due to post frontal passage. Surf with be stormy onshore but doable for the hard core.
Next: A smaller but decent Low spawns on our side of the dateline 1500 miles NW; this one was connected to the BIG ONE for a close follow up boost. The key feature is its perfect SE track toward HI (captured fetch) nosing to under 200 miles away. This proximity will allow for little decay time so the 25' seas will end up pushing the buoys/swells to 14' 14 seconds or surf on the outer reefs of 10-18' Tuesday the 4th.
Next: Upgrade as a complex array of Lows form, build and merge Thursday the 6th crossing the dateline nosing to within 600 miles by Friday! This one has a captured fetch as it trackes SE with 32' seas right toward Hawaii. We should see some 14' 15 second NW swells breaking 12-18' maybe 20' at its peak. She'll be filling late Friday the 7th peaking early Saturday the 8th with solid 10- 12' Sunday.
Last: A small storm up near the West Aleutians with a ESE track should push down some shorter 12 sec period NW peaking near 8' surf Friday the 14th.
Long range forecasts love to fantasize. Meaning they run hot or make promises they dont usually keep.
The Jet pattern down under is near nill for swell production for a week.
Currently: Just short period 1' S swell from nearby Konas.
Next: We have an early SSW coming. The Jet fattened up Sunday-Monday end of Feb with a trough under NZL and hugged its SE coast. A storm is spawned in this jet at the surface level by Monday the 24th but the track was zonal and tho' she's far SE she has gotten a big upgrade by the models with 30+' seas. Models show 2' 15 sec swells or 3' SSW surf filling in Sunday afternoon the 2nd peaking Monday-Tuesday the 3rd-4th. This will be overlapped by the WNW Sunday-Monday which should get 3' solid as well.
Last: Nothing out past the 10th.
The Windward side see’s North 3’ wrap and small 2’ wind swell off and on through the period. Konas have made it clean and inviting for the whole Windward side. It's planning on minimal size out 7 days thnks to winter storm patterns and lack of High pressure domination.
FETCH: often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time)
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php