BIG SURF PICTURE Friday 8/15/14
The weaker Jet up North is going back to poor potential for swell enhancement, and tho’ she’s elongated the winds are too light for anything. Tho’ what a run of North swell over the last week or so. Julio remnants are over 600 miles N of us and High pressures are building into dominance again.
Recent: tons of fun solid 3’ or head high 9 second N to NNW swell has been gracing our North Shore’s focal reefs from winds assoc with former Hurricane Julio spinning about 600 miles to our N. Prior, we even added plenty ‘Westers’ from recent Typhoons (Halong and Geneviere). This put August above seasonal averages....
Next: a gale Low near Kamchatka 8/10 crossed the date Monday. The source was a long ways away and pushed most of its swell NE of us but thanks to the spreading swell trains we got a long lasting 12 sec NNW this weekend hitting 2-3+ or a foot overage for focal reefs.
Next: slight chance of 2’ NNW Tuesday the 19th from a weak Gale Low near the dateline today.
Next: Nothing from the WNW-N but we will likely see swell late in the 7 day forecast from T. Storm Karina as she nears Hawaii from the East. Watch for longer period East wrap around the 20th or Wednesday.
(See NPAC models HERE)
It’s been an active season down under. The North branch of the Jet is solid and the Southern branch has had some recent flows pointing our way. Fri-Wednesday 20th the Jet is West to east or zonal with little to no opportunity to steer a Low Northward. But by Thursday we see that equatorial bound flow and sure enough the Jet fuels a Low. Read below.
Recent: Tons of storms are moving east under NZL with lots in the Taz Sea and fetches under Tahiti. This has lead to none stop overlapping episodes. For the recent SW: she came from a Low in the Taz that had up to 40’ seas Wed 8/6 which is what we had this week.
Next: Another 2 Lows tracked SE of NZL Thursday 8/7 and these sources are being seen on Barbers buoy at 2’ 15 seconds for some 2-3’ SSW surf all weekend for the Dukes Oceanfest!
Next: Reinforcement Sunday afternoon should help our cause up to 3’ from the South into Monday with shorter periods but still fun most everywhere. The source is a storm off NZL 8/9-8/12 which got to within 3500 miles from us.
Next: Another Low under Tahiti has some weak fetch adding SSE swell to the above Friday-the weekend.
Next: a powerful Low with 55-65kts comes into our window SE of NZL splitting it potential as it slams into NZL. Some of its fetch hugs the East coast with a captured fetch. Watch for 18 sec forerunners Wed the 20th reaching 3’ 15 sec swells or 2-4+ SSW surf Thursday midday and hold into Friday at this size before backing down only alittle this coming weekend for the Dukes Finals.
Last: WW3 has a fat Low far to the SE of NZL Wed-Fr 20-22nd tracking NE with a captured fetch. If all works out this will be another well overhead SSW by the 28th. Thank you.
Windward side: We’ve had small 2’ East swell but that’s increasing due to a building High pressure and Julio dissipating. Look for 3’ surf over the next 5 days with higher surf from Karina midweek onward.
Tropics: Karina is moving our way and expected to reach Hurricane status. By Wed 20th there’s 2 cells within 200 miles of eachother which could merge or feed eachother thus cause greater uncertainty. Too early for any claims but for sure we’ll be keeping an eye on it.
(See SPAC models HERE)
FETCH: often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time)
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php