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Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE (this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)

May 25, 2013 3:30 AM HST

Synopsis
Strong high pressure north of the main Hawaiian islands will keep a trade wind weather regime in place through next week. Best chances of rain remain over windward and mountain areas, with some of the larger showers reaching leeward locations at times. Winds will become locally breezy at times during the holiday weekend. A trough aloft near the area will bring periods of enhanced trade showers especially at night.

Discussion
Strong sfc high pressure remains centered far NE of the aloha state with an associated ridge axis extending W across the N cpac. Sfc analyses and model data locate the ridge axis around 300 miles N of the islands. This synoptic setup will keep a trade wind weather regime across the island chain through next week with periods of locally breezy conditions during the holiday weekend. Showers will focus over windward and mauka areas, with some of the larger showers reaching leeward locations at times especially during the night hours.

Latest model data show the ridge axis slowly migrating S and getting closer to the islands by early next week. This will cause a brief weakening of the trade wind flow, then strengthening again for the second half of next week as the ridge axis lifts and reinforcing high pressure develops far NE of the aloha state.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper lvl trough about 300 miles NW of Kauai, which is still influencing the area by keeping some instability available for enhanced trade showers. But the models gradually push the trough further away from the islands through the rest of the holiday weekend and allows for the atmosphere to become more stable.

Global models are in fair agreement regarding the potential for an upper low developing just E of the Big Island early next week. This could bring increasing instability and enhanced shower activity, especially over the Big Island. However.it is still early to determine how big of an impact this feature will have on the local weather, if it materializes. Therefore, the forecast will continue to carry close-to-climo pops, with values a little higher for early next week especially during the nighttime hours. Rainfall will still focus over windward and mauka areas.

BIG SURF PICTURE Friday 5/24/13

NPAC Into a down phase but the WNW's arent over.

Unseasonal WNW hit 8' this past week from a good storm off Japan about a week ago. Now the ocean surface looks more like Summer with High moving into dominance. There's a couple minor exceptions that we'll keep an eye on over the weekend. The main swell source will be NE from about Sunday in the isolated 1-3' wrap range with fresh and gusty ENE trades.

(See HERE)

SPAC  the 'All Time' SSW is finally fading out this weekend. Word out in the water is that this run of back to back swell (4 pulses total) hasnt occurred since 1984. It's was 8 days of 6' and up (peaks of 10' at select reefs).

Sources: 1. A huge Low with a High over NZL created a long wide fetch about Thursday 9th...2. this giant storm stalled over that weekend of the 11th more to our South allowing for another shot of lasting South swell in the 3-6+' range with 15 seconds.

3.  Another Low has its fetch off to the SE of NZL Monday-Tuesday 5/14 pushing up some solid 3-6+' South by Monday-Tuesday 5/20-21. She was a notch smaller than the 1st pulses.

4. The final shot from this 4 swell series is filling late Tuesday peaking Wednesday-Thursday at 3-6'...

Next: we go into a 'relatively' quite period with background 1-2+' South surf  with 14 seconds (1.5' open ocean) for Memorial Day weekend; this is from more distant zonal storms.

Next: a long fetch of winds are in the Taz by Monday 5/27 and we should see 3' filling around Monday June 3rd lasting through Thursday since the energy went North of NZL (Fiji will be cranking for 5 days but its before the ASP event).

Next: More swell is on the way around late Tuesday 6/4 with higher swell on Thursday 6/6. Sources are a nice NE tracking 30' sea Low hugging NZL's east coast. This well limit sea development. But we still should be some 2-4' SSW out this one filling Wed 6/6. The storm reinvigorates under Tahiti Friday 5/31 and will push up more South angled 5' surf on Friday 6/7.

Last: a broader storm in on the models SE of NZL Friday and hints of a good NE track. If all goes well, we might get 3-5' Saturday-Monday June 8-10.

The best kick off to Summer in ages if alll model fantasy pans out.

East Shores: It's a new pattern. Strong 1028 mb High to out NE fixes out weather and waves. Up to 3' is the trend from the fresh ENE winds and ENE swell from Sunday-Tuesday at least.

Tropics: Nothing.

FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link  http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.