Surf Summary & News Breaks sponsored by the VANS Triple Crown of Surfing
Your exclusive SNN Observations for Wednesday 12/4/13
Clear, cool skies. Light and variable winds with an east flow ; most all shorelines to get onshore seabreeze mush.
NORTH: Down and slowly dropping this morning on the 12 second NW at 1-2' (waist to maybe the occas chest) and super light clean offshores now but likely seabreeze onshore mush later. New NW tonight. West: Makaha down and holding the NW and hinting of a SSW at 0-1 occ 2' sets on this morning; its variable bumpiness.Town Side: Ala Moana, Kaisers, Kewalos are up and holding 1-2' on a 14 sec SSW; ocean is smooth. Diamond Head: Up and holding at 1-2' with smooth early AM's then lite bumpiness later; crowded. SANDYS: Up from the East swell and pinch of S at 2-3' with good smooth water w just a light sideshore breeze. Half Point to the shorepound and good sand bars. East: Makapu'u: Up and holding on a new E swell at 2-3+' on the left and middle and nice lines.
The Pipe Masters starts Sunday Dec 8-20 for the World Title Throw Down, Show Down! Go HERE
Call the official SNN hotline 808-596-SURF daily to get status (on, off or standby).
Details on the Vans Triple Crown. GO HERE
Go HERE for the full VTC schedule.
Congrats to Zeke Lau - Winner of the Vans World Cup of Surfing at Sunset Beach!
Congratulations to Michel Bourez - winner of the Reef Hawaiian Pro at Ali'i Beach.
Quote of the week: "Surfing was the key to his life" Kaipo on Buttons
Makapu'u at 630am with some occas near 4' sets on a new healthy East swell. Thnks Smiley!
THE LATEST IN DEPTH VIDEO PRESENTATION OF HAWAII'S WAVES,WINDS & WEATHER FROM SURF NEWS NETWORK & SPONSORED BY HAWAIIAN SOUTH SHORE
Winds Statewide in a glance ...just go HERE(this link is also the 4th drop down under weather)
Dec 03, 2013 3:30 AM HST
The winds will be flip flopping a few times in the next couple of days. Light to moderate trades are expected to usher in a more stable and drier air mass to the western islands during the next 24 hours. This will be followed by light and variable winds Thursday as a dissipating front, or shearline, brushes Kauai Friday. Another ridge of high pressure filling in behind the shear line will usher in another round of light to moderate trades Saturday.
A broken north to south oriented band of clouds lies across Kauai this hour. Models are pointing to the weak boundary to erode further as the day progresses. This shift have the models suggesting fewer showers for Oahu today and wetter for Kauai especially this afternoon. Separately, a shower area embedded in a trade wind flow will keep eastern Big Island on the damp side for most of today. Some of these clouds and showers may get carried over to windward Maui due to a slightly stiffer trade wind flow there in the next couple of hours. But these clouds will likely get dispersed by midday.
Wednesday should be drier for Kauai, and windward Big Island. Also, trades are expected to be firmer mainly in the moderate range area wide. The ECMWF is still suggesting small craft advisory level winds for waters around the Big Island but we will wait and see. The latest GFS run no longer has a high passing north of the islands Wednesday. Shower wise, expect just a few trade showers favoring the windward and mountain areas.
The trades will be cut short by a fast approaching shear line, resulting in light winds between Wednesday night and Thursday, affecting mainly Kauai and Oahu. Light northeast winds will take over the main Hawaiian islands's area Thursday night, and as the shear line draws closer to Kauai Friday, the northeast winds will strengthen to near small craft advisory level over the island's windward waters. Additionally, it could be a damp day for most of Kauai Friday and Friday night.
The wind forecast for the upcoming weekend has the trades veering to the southeast and south on Sunday. If this pans out, expect haze to spread to the smaller islands from the Big Island. The models are not indicating much showers at this time.
Little change on the marine aspects. Surf is expected to remain below advisory levels along all shores through the forecast period, with a moderate NW swell arriving weds/thurs peaking below advisory levels.
Buoys stretched out along the windward waters are indicating seas of mainly 6 to 7 feet. This swell is likely due to an extensive fetch of easterly winds to the east of the islands. Expect this swell with a short period of around 10 secs to persist for a couple of days. Surf will likely approach but remain below advisory levels along E facing shores.
The latest GFS run has backed off from trades reaching small craft advisory strength this Wednesday around the Big Island. We will be monitoring the trend closely through tonight.
We will continue to monitor whether or not the NE winds with the shear line will reach small craft advisory level for the windward waters of Kauai Friday and Friday night.
BIG SURF PICTURE BIG Black Friday 11/29/13
NPAC The Jet Stream is solidifying off Japan with a NNE tilt. It dips sharply on the dateline all the way to our North leading to the drop in trades and SE winds, the front, the BIG NW etc...The Low has pushed the High to the east and its now centered between us and the west coast. The jet keeps up its extension off Japan and drops further over the next 5 days. However, no big Lows of interest are being shaped. The Long range shows better bigger potential around Dec 5-6th.
Wind and weather: Winds veered to the southeast and then south with more of the same seabreezy pattern today and fresh S winds Saturday ahead of the front. The old frontal boundary arriving tonight but we dont know how far down the chain it'll go. Details HERE.
Currently: NW waves are bombing and may have peaked. Still towing and Waimea have action with surf up to 15' local scale or 25' faces. Buoys show 12' 16 seconds. Source as broad complex Low Wed 11/27 tracking east to the dateline and beyond as she intenifies with 30-35' seas and garnering close, strong fetch. So we'll be Thankful for more than just Turkey and stuffing on Thursday- Friday.
Next: Slight chance of a 3-6' NW Swell with 12 seconds filling Wednesday afternoon to 4' then peak Thursday Dec 5th at near dbl overhead at Sunset. The Low pops near the dateline Monday and tracks ESE with a partially captured fetch so the event should last a few days.
Next: Another more powerful Low spawns even further east of the dateline than the last storm. Nearby gale systems has shorter periods and more frequent sets. The fetch noses just 600 miles to our NNW by Friday Dec 6th. We should get some advsry level NW to NNW surf outta this; rising fast midday Monday 12/19 to 4-7' and peaking at nite with some fading 8-12' NW surf Tuesday morning.
Last: no swells showing after the last one. We need to wait 1-2 days.
Pat Caldwell keeps the data from our OBS and the results are in...."FOR COUNTS OF DAYS IN THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WITH HEAD HIGH OR LESS SURF SINCE 1968...1994 HAD THE MOST WITH 19 DAYS. THE AVERAGE OVER ALL YEARS IS 5 DAYS. THE PREVIOUS 2 YEARS...2011-12...HAD 10 AND 11 DAYS RESPECTIVELY. THIS YEAR COULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE YEARS".
The Jet actually took a nice NNE track up toward HI Monday the 25th and supported a Low to follow the same track. The 15 second SSW from this source will only reach 2' and maybe near 3' filling Tuesday and peaking Wednesday on the 4th of December. See below.
Current: buoys show the NW swell at 17 seconds but there's no wrap yet if at all on this one. It's just background waist high or barely 2'.
Next: models show new close interval SSE, onshore choppy windswell Saturday to chest high due to the frontal boundry to the N.
Next: The tiny background 2' SSW fills Tuesday Dec 3 from a gale Low tracking NE this past Monday-Tuesday. No big deal but it does keep town rideable in Dec.
LAst: long range model fantasy hint of a better 15 second SSW swell filling Monday the 9th. It could get solid 2-3' for 2 days. A Low comes up ENE off the NZL east coast monday Dec 2nd. This is an 'out of season' swell we'd be happy with even during the Summer. Lets wait and see if models and actual winds confirm this Monday.
East Shores: Tiny N wrap and tiny Windswell at 2+'...no pure trade swell till mid week next week. The Storms passing close to HI are disrupting the usual ongoing trade regime.
Tropical: No storms. Thnk God.
FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.
More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php
....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.
|North-Facing Shores||15 Feet (8')||25 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Big Island||8 Feet (4'+)||12 Feet|
|West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands||12 Feet (7')||20 Feet|
|South-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|
|East-Facing Shores||8 Feet (4'+)||15 Feet|