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Exclusive Obs: special 7am update for Monday 11/24 powered by the Vans World Cup

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What a difference a day makes. Terrible winds, waves and weather due to frontal passage. The Target Women's Pro at Honolua Bay plus the Vans Triple Crown's 2nd Jewel The Vans World Cup at Sunset are both OFF for Monday 11/24. Cloudy, rainy.

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North Shore:

Up and holding all day from a 13 sec NW with terrible storm surf at 5-7' Sunset to 4-6' Rocky pt. and Pipe and 3-5' Ali'i. Cloudy, rainy.
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West:

Up and holding on the NW @ a bumpy 2-4' at Makaha but side onshore bumpy. Could turn better later. Cloudy, rainy.
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Town:

Down and Holding tiny 12 second SSW pushing up some semi bumpy 0-1 barely occ 2' waves/20 minutes at Bowls, Beach Park, Queens. Expect winds to shift from NNW to N and help the conditions out. Cloudy, rainy.
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Diamond Head:

Holding some SSE+SSW swell of 0-1-2' with good smooth conditions thanks to the cliffs. Cloudy, rainy.
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Sandy's:

Holding on mostly ENE and N swells & tiny SSW swell with semi fair 1-2' maybe some 2.5' From Full Pt,, 1/2 point and some peaks into Gas Chambers but close to shore and slamming; Cloudy, rainy.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on ENE trade and N wrap swell with smooth lite variables @ 1-2 occ 3' from the left to the middle; ; Cloudy, rainy.

Weather

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 84°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph N

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 83°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph NE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 84°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 85°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 85°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

North

Monday
11/24
NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Holding
7' 13 sec; cloudy, choppy
Tuesday
11/25
N-NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Holding
9' 11 sec; sideshore
Wednesday
11/26
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping
6' 11 sec; sideoff
Thursday
11/27
N-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping
4' 11 sec
Friday
11/28
N-NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
3' 11 sec
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West

Monday
11/24
NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Holding
poor to fair side shore; turning offshore later
Tuesday
11/25
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Holding

Wednesday
11/26
N-NW
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
Dropping

Thursday
11/27
N-NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Friday
11/28
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping

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South

Monday
11/24
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising
2' 10 sec; cloudy, semi smooth
Tuesday
11/25
SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising
1' 14 sec
Wednesday
11/26
SE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

Thursday
11/27
SE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising
1' 14 sec
Friday
11/28
SE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

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east

Monday
11/24
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising
smooth, variable like winds; changing to North.
Tuesday
11/25
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

Wednesday
11/26
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Thursday
11/27
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Friday
11/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

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Current Swells:

Monday   11/24
Primary: Dropping  N-NW  3-5+
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   11/24
High surf for N and West and Small Craft for Channels
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Sailing Report:

Monday   11/24
fair with brisk NW to N winds veering North.
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Diving Report:

Monday   11/24
fair for deeper south and west, Poor/fair for deeper North shore dives and for east dives

Oahu

Pipeline
Monday   11/24
NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
NNW winds
rainy, stormy

HALEIWA
Monday   11/24
NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
NNW winds
disorganized

MAKAHA
Monday   11/24
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NNW winds
poor to fair

ALA MOANA
Monday   11/24
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NNW winds
rainy, stormy

Waikiki
Monday   11/24
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NNW winds
rainy, stormy

Diamond Head
Monday   11/24
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NNW winds
fair to good

Sandy Beach
Monday   11/24
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
North winds
fair to good

Makapuu
Monday   11/24
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Winds Swirling
good

Maui

Hookipa
Monday   11/24
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
NNW winds
bumpy

Honolua
Monday   11/24
N-NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NNW winds
bumpy

Kihei
Monday   11/24
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NNW winds
bumpy

Hana
Monday   11/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Winds Swirling
fair

Lahaina
Monday   11/24
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NNW winds
bumpy

Kauai

Hanalei
Monday   11/24
N-NW
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
NNW winds
choppy

Majors
Monday   11/24
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
NNW winds
bumpy

Poipu
Monday   11/24
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NNW winds
bumpy

Kapaa
Monday   11/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
North winds
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Monday   11/24
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Kohala
Monday   11/24
N
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NNW winds
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Monday   11/24
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
North winds
fair

Hilo
Monday   11/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
North winds
fair to good

Kau
Monday   11/24
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
North winds
fair

Weather

Nov 22, 2014 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Moderate trade winds will diminish today. Showers will be limited mainly to windward slopes, especially over the Big Island. A front will bring modest rain and stronger, northerly winds to most of the state from Sunday night into Tuesday. The winds then will weaken and become northeasterly again as the cool and dry air mass moistens gradually into Friday.

Discussion
Observations around the main Hawaiian islands reported winds gradually becoming more southeasterly, but still remaining strong enough to require extending the small craft advisory in places around the Big Island. Aloft, the ridge languishing across the state from west to east thinned out between shallow troughing to south, and a deepening long-wave trough to the north. A jet stream associated with the trough to the south brought cirrus layers from the ITCZ as far north as Maui county, and cloud cover was increased accordingly. However, the mid-level ridge remained strong enough to limit the inversion to near its usual height.

Lower cloud cover consisted mainly of generally stable clouds. Various measures of precipitable water depicted a relatively dry air mass upwind of most of the state, excepting only south slopes of the Big Island. Rain gauges reported little accumulation through the night. On the other hand, radar detected enough shower activity over the water so that the current pop grids for later today nonetheless appeared plausible given the predicted breakdown of the ridge aloft.

Guidance still largely agreed that the deepening long-wave trough aloft to the north will start to displace the mid-level ridge toward the east, finally supporting the approach at the surface of the front currently crossing 30°N near 170°W. As the surface ridge retreats to the southeast ahead of the front, the trade winds will diminish and become increasingly southeasterly.

The front itself should reach Kauai by Sunday night, but solution consensus predicted the supporting mid-level trough to focus mainly to the east of the state. Thus, most development along the front should remain northeast of the islands, leaving only a fairly shallow boundary to move down the state from Sunday night into Tuesday. Some rain will accompany the front, mainly over the smaller islands. The Big Island more likely will experience a less organized increase in showers from the frontal remnants moving ashore along northeast slopes on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Moderate to strong northerly winds in the cooler and drier air mass behind the front may be more significant than the front itself.

From Wednesday into the latter half of the week, the subtropical ridge will reestablish itself north of the state gradually, returning local winds to a more familiar northeasterly direction, though wind speeds will drop off significantly until the ridge shifts far enough north. The cool and dry air mass will modify in place, allowing windward showers to increase again with time.

Marine
Although wind direction around Maui and Hawaii counties became more southeasterly, speeds did not diminish as quickly as expected earlier, except in the Pailolo channel and Maalaea Bay, where Maui blocked the wind flow. Thus, the small craft advisory was extended through the day today for the Alenuihaha channel and waters south through west of the Big Island. Wind speeds should start to diminish this evening, but will strengthen again behind the front early next week, likely reaching the threshold for an advisory again.

A series of northwest swells will arrive during the next several days. The largest surf is expected between Sunday and Tuesday, when heights may exceed advisory levels at times. Trade winds will continue to produce short-period choppy surf along east-facing shores.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for Alenuihaha channel, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.








Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

11/18/14 Tuesday
NPAC
The Jet Stream wind current 30,000’ up has a zonal trough off Japan that also tracks quickly east all week. This steers storms fast from west to east as the Jet extends all the way to the west coast. By Saturday there’s a split in the Jet near the dateline with more energy staring off Japan again as the Jet drops in latitude. So we should be looking a little better for the long haul.
Recent- Currently: We have a peaking 8-10’ NNW this afternoon with brisk side shore NE trades. This swell comes from 2 fetches. One was up near the Aleutians last Thur-Friday and though the winds were stronger the Low was more distant than the 2nd source which really kicked up the surf due to close proximity of under 1000 miles and 20’ seas Saturday. It’ll drop fast Tuesday as close-shorter period events often do.
Next: A couple of storms close together race east in the zonal Jet this past weekend. Most the swell is off to our NE but we’ll still get some 2-4+ NW waves Wed. @ 14 seconds.

Next: Storm #2 spawned Sunday with up to 20’ seas but stayed further away. Watch for 3-5+’ NW surf Thursday.

Next: A storm forms near the date racing east building by Thursday to our North. We miss most its power but WW3 projects 7’ swell @ 15 sec Sunday which would refract/shoal on country reefs up 8’ minimum. I believe it’s being overcalled. So go with 50/50 for now.

Next: Friday another fast moving Low pressure area is 1500 miles to our N but the area of storminess is broad. We should see energy added to the prior episode holding waves in the 5-8’ range Monday.

Next: Another Low producing 20’ seas forms west of the dateline this weekend and with a much better SE track moving our way Sat-Sunday. If all goes well it could keep the surf 6-8’ with 14 seconds Tuesday.

Last: yet another eastbound Low is nearing and crossing the dateline Monday the 24th. WW3 hints of 6’ 15 seconds Friday which seems delayed by a day or two. Long range forecasts are subject to greater changes.


SPAC:
The Jet : We’re still getting semi lucky with background swells well past mid Nov. Currently, the winds are broken with no potential for sea surface winds. But by Wed. we get a bend NNE tho’ it hugs NZL’s west coast before heading right over the Islands. We go quite for about 3-4 days. Then day 7 we get a bit of troughing on the East coast of NZL. So what we see happening are plenty 2’ swells from the SW to SSW when it could be flat to one.

Recent-current: tiny tiny the past several days but buoys popped Monday with 1’ 15 seconds on the Taz fetch from last Tuesday the 11th. Surf picked up Monday and will be very inconsistently 2’ for top zones into Thursday. Fiji cranked on this storm but for us there’s too many obstacles in the way (Fiji, Samoa and hey, even NZL).

Next: Another Taz Low Tuesday the 18th slams into NZL and it’s not likely more than thigh surf @ 15 sec will be felt locally Thursday the 25th.

Last: Friday the 21st shows a Low moving East under the southern Tip of NZL. This is so far out its tough to claim but we’ll go ahead with a 2’ SSW Saturday the 29th.

Windward side: Recently we’ve had Small back ground 1-2’ East swell with some 2’ N mixing in from recent country swells. Surf will ramping up Wednesday thanks to the High NNE of us strengthening for a day with winds up to 30mph. Surf should hit 2-3’ and subside into this weekend. The Jet drops this weekend allowing storms to get closer and cut trades down and therefore windswell will be at a minimum.

Tropics: No activity in the Tropics.






FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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