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Waves, Winds, Weather by Hawaiian South Shore 630am Tuesday

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Semi cloudy but clearing and dry. Variables into seabreeze pattern through weekend. NNW down and SE replaced by 2' SSW. Isolated brown water.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping on the 13 second NNW with sets occas. still 3-5' at Sunset and Laniakea and 2-3' at Pipe; 2-4' at Chuns & Ali'i. It's smooth and glassy early with funky swell angle.
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West:

Makaha is down and dropping with glassy 1-3' from the NNW and seeing the new weak 2' SSW mix with onshores later.
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Town:

Ala Moana & Beach Park are now replacing the dropping SE Ana swell with a new rising 16 second SSW but it will only be 0-1-2' with semi bumpy and weak surf. Not the best shape either.
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Diamond Head:

Down and dropping from the SE Ana swell plus a new 16 second 'background' SSW at a fairly smooth slightly bumpy 0-1-2'.
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Sandy's:

Down and dropping on the SE on Ana swell and N wrap and soon the feel the SSW with fairly smooth lite E trades: Sandy's is serving up 1-2 barely occ 2.5'.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and dropping on a North and onshore East swell at a fairly smooth 1-2 barely ocass 3' breakin' mostly inside and on the Keiki's side.

Weather

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 89°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 88°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 88°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 88°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 88°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph E

North

Wednesday
10/22
N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping
+ 3' west
Thursday
10/23
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
14 secconds
Friday
10/24
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding
12 seconds
Saturday
10/25
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping

Sunday
10/26
N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

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West

Wednesday
10/22
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
+ Tiny West
Thursday
10/23
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising
+ Tiny West
Friday
10/24
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Saturday
10/25
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Sunday
10/26
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

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South

Wednesday
10/22
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Thursday
10/23
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

Friday
10/24
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Saturday
10/25
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising Later

Sunday
10/26
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

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east

Wednesday
10/22
N-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Thursday
10/23
N-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Friday
10/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Saturday
10/25
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Sunday
10/26
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Wednesday   10/22
Primary: Dropping  N  1-3'
Secondary: Holding  S-SW  1-2'
Third: Dropping  E  1-2'
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   10/22
None
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   10/22
Poor to fair with lite and variables through Sunday
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   10/22
Fair with lite variables and isolated Brown Water clearing

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Oct 21, 2014 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Synoptic southeast winds will prevail across the state in the next couple of days as a weak surface high pressure settles over the islands. A band of moisture associated with an old front northeast of the state will bring an increase in rainfall tonight and Wednesday. The stronger and more easterly trade winds will return later this week as a stronger high pressure moves to far north of the islands.

Discussion
Winds have shifted southeasterly over the eastern islands early this morning, and become lighter due to the shadowing effect of the islands. This allowed nighttime land breezes to develop, as indicated at Kahului airport observations. Rather moderate easterly winds are still over Kauai at this time, though as the day progresses, expect the synoptic southeasterly winds to spread. Early morning Lihue and Hilo soundings continue to reveal a trade wind weather type profile, with low level moisture extending to over 5 thousand feet. The soundings indicated a little drier, though still unstable air mass in the island vicinity. Latest satellite and radar data showed a little increase of low clouds in the island vicinity early this morning. As such, the islands will see a little more clouds and showers though rest of the morning. At 2 am HST, tropical storm Ana was located about 400 miles west of Lihue, and was moving to the west at 9 mph. Only high clouds from the convection associated the system are still affecting the state early this morning, especially over the western islands. The clearing of the high clouds over the state will be slow through the next couple of days.

A weak surface ridge of high pressure over the state is responsible for the southeasterly winds. This ridge will stay near the islands through the next couple of days. A dissipating front remains just north to northeast of the islands early this morning. Moisture from this dissipating front will spread south slowly and eventually reach the state by later tonight. Forecast models indicate air mass will still be somewhat unstable, though there is no prominent upper level feature providing more favorable atmospheric conditions for widespread heavy rain to develop. Therefore, expect an increase in low clouds and showers later tonight through Wednesday for the islands. Light winds across the state in the next couple of days will allow land and sea breezes to develop, and the converging day time sea breezes over the islands may result in more clouds and showers over the interior and lee areas.

A stronger surface high pressure is expected to move to far northeast of the state towards the weekend. Forecast models indicate areas of moisture will be passing the islands at times. Therefore, expect slightly more robust trade winds to return the state with periods of passing showers affecting mainly windward areas over the weekend.

Aviation
A deck of high clouds over portions of Oahu and Kauai will continue to thin today. Otherwise, 12Z soundings from PHLI and PHTO show the return of a low level inversion between 5 and 6 kft. Generally light winds will veer more SE today and interior areas may see afternoon cloud build ups. Terminals should remain predominately VFR through the afternoon. A sagging dissipating front is expected to bring enhance moisture to the state starting tonight, introducing the higher potential for periods of MVFR conditions.

Marine
Latest readings from the near-shore buoy north of Oahu still show the downward trend of the north-northwest swell. Believe surf for the north facing shores has decreased to below advisory level early this morning. Therefore the high surf advisory for north facing shores has been cancelled. A new small northwest swell is expected to arrive Thursday and continue through Friday, bringing below advisory level surf.

No small craft wind conditions are expected for the coastal waters through the rest of the week, as the winds are expected to remain below small craft advisory level, even for the usual windier coastal waters around Maui and the Big Island.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.

All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

BIG SURF PICTURE
10/14/14 Tuesday

Saturday update. Building surf from the SE Cat1 hurricane Ana. Hit the Big Is by Friday night and will bring huge stormy East and 5-8' (possibly higher' local scale) SE swell to Big Is with up to 35 and higher kt gusts but the exact speed, swell size and angle will be veering have to be refined.

NPAC
The Jet stream has a deep long looping trough from off the Kurils up near the Aleutians and a dip SE near the east Aleutians. There are plenty broad weak flows off to our NE to the west coast. The Jet straightens out and breaks up by Friday with a deep trough dip SE near the central Aleutians and esp by Saturday winds increase to 160kts carrying a large Low our way for a big NNW Sunday. All in all more energy is flowing up there 30,000 feet.
Recent- Currently: We’ve been on the decline since out fat 8-12’ NW came last Fri-Sunday. It was 3’ Tuesday with even some south winds and clouds to give some atmosphere.
Next: We get some sideband NNE swell Wednesday from a Low in the Gulf and it’s fetch to the west last weekend into Tuesday but most it’s energy is off to the east. Surf should reach 2-3’ Wednesday with just 9 seconds and only for Laniakea and Kammies etc.
Next: The above low strengthened Monday-Tuesday with a long fetch again near the east Aleutians sending most its swell to Cali. The 25-35kts still should produce some sideband swell with 9 seconds and surf hts reaching easy 4’ maybe 5’ Thursday for those isolated spots.
Next: A complex Low spins up near the dateline Sunday-Monday and tracks NE as it goes away Tuesday night. Not much fetch from this source but still, we could get some 2-3’ WNW mixing with the N above.
Next: Former Typhoon Vong Fong which started toward the PI last Tuesday the 7th moved slowly NW into Taiwan and terrorizing the region through the weekend. It ran right over Japan and became a gender bender (warm core low to cold core). It then got absorbed into the mid level Jet stream trough today and begins a track leading to large surf. Wed-Thursday the 45kt and 35’ seas track ESE from up near the Aleutians hitting the dateline Thursday and passes to our N as it broadens. The fetch got close to only 1200 mile away by the weekend. (less distance means less decay of ocean swell means bigger surf). Long period forerunners hit late Saturday 3’ 20 sec from the first phase of the storm. The swells will rise to near 10’ with shorter but still healthy 15 seconds Sunday noonish. This should equate to 8-12’ NW surf Sunday midday to evening with a slight drop to 6-10’ Monday as it veers NNW to N and fades.
Last: We go into some down time from NW sources until a Kamchatka Low quickly tracks E-ESE Sunday-Tuesday crossing the dateline Monday up near the central Aleutians. By Tuesday we’ve had enough fetch to lend short 11 second support to the dropping prior swell Wednesday afternoon to 4-6’ from the NNW.

SPAC:
The Jet down under is broken, weak and zonal most of the 7 days forecast; a sign of the times as we head into Austral summer. Things will be quieting down and only exceptions will change the outlook.
Recent-current: We’ve been at slightly above summer averages so at least that’s good news. We’ve seen some 14 second SSW surf reaching solid 3’ today fading some Wednesday. It came from a gale Low east of NZL a week ago. Note south swells often take longer to build and last longer due to distance traveled. Longer periods stretch out as they move faster than the swells ‘average’ periods. Thus long periods get here 1st but are inconsistent. By the same token on the back end of the event, the shorter 13 seconds will be smaller but more consistent in the later stages.
Next: A weak low spins off far off NZL last Friday-Sat.. We ‘might’ see some background 2’ South this weekend.
Last: Long shot of SSW popping the buoy with 16 seconds late Monday the 20th reaching 2.5’ 15 sec Wednesday 22nd and if lucky this would mean some 2-3’ SSW waves to ride for a couple days. Long range outlooks are blurry.
Windward side: tiny 2’ back ground Trade swell until Friday when TS Simon and higher trades lift the surf to 1-3’ all weekend. Minor variations all next week.
Tropics: See the above discussion for former Super Typhoon Vong Fong which brings some isolated 2’ West surf Wed-Friday. And helps bring some Big NNW surf this weekend as a transformed extra tropical Low.

FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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