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Waves, Winds, Weather by Bamp Productions 630am Wednesday

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Mostly cloudy and dry. Very light trade flow into possible seabreezes. Trade forecast now return 10-20 Th-Sat. NNW dropped and SSW rose. Teachers conference day so student are off.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping on the 12 second NNW with sets 2-3' occas. higher at Laniakea and 1-3' at Sunset with 1-2' at Pipe and Chuns & Ali'i. It's smooth and glassy early with weird form & good ones here & there.
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West:

Down and dropping at Makaha with glassy 0-2' from the N & the weak 2' SSW mix with onshores later.
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Town:

Up and holding at Ala Moana-Kaisers & Beach Park are seeing the 13 second SSW but it will only be 0-1-2.5' inconsistent at that with nice glassy water. Queens averaging 2' sets and nice.
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Diamond Head:

Up and holding the new 13 second 'background' SSW at a fairly bumpy 0-1-2' maybe 2.5' or chest high.
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Sandy's:

Down and dropping from the 2' North and up and holding from the 2' SSW with w/a mix of 2' trade swell with bumpy lite E trades: So, Sandy's is serving up combo sets 1-2 mostly with occ 3'.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and holding on a North and onshore East swell at semi bumpy 1-2 maybe 2.5' breakin' inside and at Keiki's.

Weather

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 88°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 88°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 88°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 88°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 87°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

North

Wednesday
10/22
N
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
Dropping
smooth, semi cloudy + 2' west later
Thursday
10/23
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
14 secconds
Friday
10/24
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding
12 seconds
Saturday
10/25
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping

Sunday
10/26
N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

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West

Wednesday
10/22
S+N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping
smooth, semi cloudy
Thursday
10/23
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising
+ Tiny West
Friday
10/24
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Saturday
10/25
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Sunday
10/26
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

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South

Wednesday
10/22
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding
partly clear, glassy
Thursday
10/23
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

Friday
10/24
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Saturday
10/25
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising Later

Sunday
10/26
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

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east

Wednesday
10/22
N-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping
cloudy, bumpy
Thursday
10/23
N-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Friday
10/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Saturday
10/25
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Sunday
10/26
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Wednesday   10/22
Primary: Dropping  N  1-3' + a small new 2' NW
Secondary: Holding  S-SW  1-2.5'
Third: Holding  E-NE  1-2'
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   10/22
None
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   10/22
fair with lite trades
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   10/22
Fair-good out west and fair dives in town and out east. Poor to fair for the North shore; isolated Brown Water clearing

Oahu

SUNSET
Wednesday   10/22
NW+N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades very light
fair to good

ROCKY POINT
Wednesday   10/22
NW+N
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Trades very light
good

Pipeline
Wednesday   10/22
NW+N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades very light
good

HALEIWA
Wednesday   10/22
NW+N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades very light
fair to good

MAKAHA
Wednesday   10/22
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades very light
smooth

ALA MOANA
Wednesday   10/22
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades very light
smooth

Waikiki
Wednesday   10/22
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades very light
smooth

Diamond Head
Wednesday   10/22
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Sandy Beach
Wednesday   10/22
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Trades light-moderate
fair

Makapuu
Wednesday   10/22
N-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Maui

Hookipa
Wednesday   10/22
N-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Trades light-moderate
fair

Honolua
Wednesday   10/22
N-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light
good

Kihei
Wednesday   10/22
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades light-moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Hana
Wednesday   10/22
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Lahaina
Wednesday   10/22
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades very light
smooth

Kauai

Hanalei
Wednesday   10/22
NW+N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades very light
good

Majors
Wednesday   10/22
S+SSW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades very light
fair to good

Poipu
Wednesday   10/22
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light
smooth

Kapaa
Wednesday   10/22
N-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Big Island

Kohala
Wednesday   10/22
N-NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades very light
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Wednesday   10/22
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades very light
smooth

Hilo
Wednesday   10/22
N-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Kau
Wednesday   10/22
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Weather

Oct 22, 2014 4:01 AM HST

Synopsis
Tropical storm Ana continues to move away from the main Hawaiian islands. East southeast flow will prevail over main Hawaiian islands today. A high building far north of the area will bring moderate trade winds Thursday and Friday. Winds will weaken and shift out the east southeast again over the weekend as a front approaches from the northwest.

Discussion
Tropical storm Ana, located south of French Frigate Shoals, continues to move away from the main Hawaiian islands. A band of high clouds nearly separated from Ana will move across Kauai and Oahu this morning. Infrared satellite shows low level cloud motions indicative of east southeast flow across the main Hawaiian islands this morning. The Big Island is partly blocking the flow across the smaller islands, making winds relatively light.

Radar indicates scattered to numerous light showers coverage over the windward slopes and waters with a few of those showers reaching upper leeward slopes of the smaller islands. Showers increased overnight due to the moisture advecting from an old frontal boundary brushing against the windward areas. Early morning soundings from Lihue and Hilo show a stable atmosphere with relatively high precipitable water values of 1.77 and 1.54 inches respectively, part of the reason for the light but numerous showers streaming in.

An east to west ridge far northeast of the Big Island and the circulation around tropical storm Ana will combine to maintain gentle to moderate east southeast flow over the main islands today. With the east southeast flow partly blocked by the Big Island, winds will be light enough over the smaller islands for sea breezes to dominate this afternoon and bring some clouds and showers to leeward and interior areas. The afternoon showers could be a bit more active given the moisture in place, but stable atmospheric conditions should keep this rainfall on the lighter side. While showers will focus over windward areas this morning, as the sea breezes kick in for leeward areas expect to see a shift to more leeward and interior clouds and showers by afternoon.

Although winds will be rather light around the smaller islands today, the low level flow will remain stronger near the Big Island. The Hamakua coast and South Point will be susceptible to a bit stronger winds due to the orientation of terrain and wind flow.

The global models are in good agreement showing a surface high far north northwest of the area building southeast on Thursday, strengthening the trade winds to moderate to fresh breezes. The trades will persist through Friday focusing showers over windward areas with mostly dry weather over leeward areas.

The surface ridge will weaken and move south again over the weekend as a front approaches from the northwest. The winds over the main islands will weaken and shift out of the east southeast. That wind flow will likely bring scattered nighttime showers over windward areas and some clouds and showers over leeward areas in the afternoons.

Aviation
Early this morning, the area of enhanced moisture associated with an old frontal boundary has made its way into the northern coastal waters and is helping to produce scattered showers with tops between 8 and 12 kft. Mvfr cigs and vis are likely within these showers. Expect some of these showers to push over land, mainly windward and mauka areas, later this morning and afternoon, leading to periods of MVFR conditions. As this occurs, there is potential for the need to issue airmet sierra for mountain obscuration. Interior areas may once again experience afternoon cloud build ups as the light E to SE background flow will allow for localized sea breeze development. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

Marine
The current north swell will subside through tonight. Another small swell from the north northwest arrives Thursday and will continue through the weekend but surf from these swells will remain below the advisory levels at north and west facing shores. Only small surf is expected at south and east facing shores.

Winds and seas will remain generally below small craft advisory levels through the forecast period.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.
None.

All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

BIG SURF PICTURE
10/14/14 Tuesday

Saturday update. Building surf from the SE Cat1 hurricane Ana. Hit the Big Is by Friday night and will bring huge stormy East and 5-8' (possibly higher' local scale) SE swell to Big Is with up to 35 and higher kt gusts but the exact speed, swell size and angle will be veering have to be refined.

NPAC
The Jet stream has a deep long looping trough from off the Kurils up near the Aleutians and a dip SE near the east Aleutians. There are plenty broad weak flows off to our NE to the west coast. The Jet straightens out and breaks up by Friday with a deep trough dip SE near the central Aleutians and esp by Saturday winds increase to 160kts carrying a large Low our way for a big NNW Sunday. All in all more energy is flowing up there 30,000 feet.
Recent- Currently: We’ve been on the decline since out fat 8-12’ NW came last Fri-Sunday. It was 3’ Tuesday with even some south winds and clouds to give some atmosphere.
Next: We get some sideband NNE swell Wednesday from a Low in the Gulf and it’s fetch to the west last weekend into Tuesday but most it’s energy is off to the east. Surf should reach 2-3’ Wednesday with just 9 seconds and only for Laniakea and Kammies etc.
Next: The above low strengthened Monday-Tuesday with a long fetch again near the east Aleutians sending most its swell to Cali. The 25-35kts still should produce some sideband swell with 9 seconds and surf hts reaching easy 4’ maybe 5’ Thursday for those isolated spots.
Next: A complex Low spins up near the dateline Sunday-Monday and tracks NE as it goes away Tuesday night. Not much fetch from this source but still, we could get some 2-3’ WNW mixing with the N above.
Next: Former Typhoon Vong Fong which started toward the PI last Tuesday the 7th moved slowly NW into Taiwan and terrorizing the region through the weekend. It ran right over Japan and became a gender bender (warm core low to cold core). It then got absorbed into the mid level Jet stream trough today and begins a track leading to large surf. Wed-Thursday the 45kt and 35’ seas track ESE from up near the Aleutians hitting the dateline Thursday and passes to our N as it broadens. The fetch got close to only 1200 mile away by the weekend. (less distance means less decay of ocean swell means bigger surf). Long period forerunners hit late Saturday 3’ 20 sec from the first phase of the storm. The swells will rise to near 10’ with shorter but still healthy 15 seconds Sunday noonish. This should equate to 8-12’ NW surf Sunday midday to evening with a slight drop to 6-10’ Monday as it veers NNW to N and fades.
Last: We go into some down time from NW sources until a Kamchatka Low quickly tracks E-ESE Sunday-Tuesday crossing the dateline Monday up near the central Aleutians. By Tuesday we’ve had enough fetch to lend short 11 second support to the dropping prior swell Wednesday afternoon to 4-6’ from the NNW.

SPAC:
The Jet down under is broken, weak and zonal most of the 7 days forecast; a sign of the times as we head into Austral summer. Things will be quieting down and only exceptions will change the outlook.
Recent-current: We’ve been at slightly above summer averages so at least that’s good news. We’ve seen some 14 second SSW surf reaching solid 3’ today fading some Wednesday. It came from a gale Low east of NZL a week ago. Note south swells often take longer to build and last longer due to distance traveled. Longer periods stretch out as they move faster than the swells ‘average’ periods. Thus long periods get here 1st but are inconsistent. By the same token on the back end of the event, the shorter 13 seconds will be smaller but more consistent in the later stages.
Next: A weak low spins off far off NZL last Friday-Sat.. We ‘might’ see some background 2’ South this weekend.
Last: Long shot of SSW popping the buoy with 16 seconds late Monday the 20th reaching 2.5’ 15 sec Wednesday 22nd and if lucky this would mean some 2-3’ SSW waves to ride for a couple days. Long range outlooks are blurry.
Windward side: tiny 2’ back ground Trade swell until Friday when TS Simon and higher trades lift the surf to 1-3’ all weekend. Minor variations all next week.
Tropics: See the above discussion for former Super Typhoon Vong Fong which brings some isolated 2’ West surf Wed-Friday. And helps bring some Big NNW surf this weekend as a transformed extra tropical Low.

FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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