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Exclusive Obs: 7am update Super Bowl Sunday Feburary 1, 2015 powered by Hanks Tax 853-1170.

Party cloudy skies today with light winds, some areas seeing light trades. Decreasing NW swell.

High Surf Advsry for the NW swell. Tiny for south and east shores. Kona winds developing tomorrow from a nearby cold front.
Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping on NW swell: NW buoy is 7' 13 sec.. Sunset is 5-7+' and Pipe is 4-6+' and everywhere is clean with light side shore winds; partly sunny. Day 3 of the Volcom Pip Pro!
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West:

Down and dropping on the NW swell at 3-5'. Mostly smooth offshore conditions; partly cloudy.
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Town:

Holding small on a background south swell at 0-1.5' with glassy AM winds at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area at 0-1.5'. few clouds.
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Diamond Head:

Holding on the background South at 0-1.5' with smooth offshores; mostly sunny (see SNN Cam).
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Sandy's:

Holding on a combo swell with N and S at 0-2' right near shore and out at the Points with light winds and smooth. Partly cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on an East and N swell at a smooth 0-2' sets off and on and bumpy PM onshores. Partly cloudy.

Weather

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 82°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph NE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 84°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph SSW

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 85°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph WSW

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph W

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
67°F
max: 82°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph WNW

NE
5-15+
Lite AM winds, PM trades/sea breezes
SW
5-15+
Lite AM winds, increasing konas
W
5-10
veering round compass
NW
5-7

SW
5-15+
Konas again?

North

Sunday
02/01
NW
Haw: 4-8
Face: 6-14
Dropping

Monday
02/02
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Dropping

Tuesday
02/03
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising Later
6' 14 sec 8pm
Wednesday
02/04
N-NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Dropping

Thursday
02/05
N-NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

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West

Sunday
02/01
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Dropping

Monday
02/02
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

Tuesday
02/03
N-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising Later

Wednesday
02/04
N-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Dropping

Thursday
02/05
N-NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping

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South

Sunday
02/01
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Monday
02/02
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Tuesday
02/03
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Wednesday
02/04
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Thursday
02/05
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Rising

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east

Sunday
02/01
E-NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

Monday
02/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Tuesday
02/03
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
02/04
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Thursday
02/05
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Sunday   02/01
Primary: Dropping  NW  6-8'
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  0-2
Third: Holding  S  0-1.5'
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Marine Warnings:

Sunday   02/01
High surf advsry for NW Shores
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Sailing Report:

Sunday   02/01
Fair with afternoon light trades/sea breezes
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Diving Report:

Sunday   02/01
Great for South and East but poor for North and West

Oahu

SUNSET
Sunday   02/01
NW
Haw: 5-7+
Face: 8-12+
NE Trades light
smooth

ROCKY POINT
Sunday   02/01
NW
Haw: 5-7+
Face: 8-12+
NE Trades light
glassy

Pipeline
Sunday   02/01
NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
NE Trades light
clean
Volcom Pipe Pro Day 3 ON
HALEIWA
Sunday   02/01
NW
Haw: 5-7+
Face: 8-12+
NE Trades light
smooth

MAKAHA
Sunday   02/01
NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
NE Trades light-moderate
clean

ALA MOANA
Sunday   02/01
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light
smooth

Waikiki
Sunday   02/01
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light
glassy

Diamond Head
Sunday   02/01
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light
clean

Sandy Beach
Sunday   02/01
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades light
smooth

Makapuu
Sunday   02/01
E-NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades light
fairly clean

Maui

Hookipa
Sunday   02/01
NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
NE Trades light
slightly bumpy

Honolua
Sunday   02/01
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades light
clean

Kihei
Sunday   02/01
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades light
clean

Hana
Sunday   02/01
E-NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Calm to Konas
semi-clean

Lahaina
Sunday   02/01
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades light
clean

Kauai

Hanalei
Sunday   02/01
NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
NE Trades light
glassy

Majors
Sunday   02/01
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Calm to seabreezes
smooth

Poipu
Sunday   02/01
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light
smooth

Kapaa
Sunday   02/01
E-NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Trades light
clean

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Sunday   02/01
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades light
clean

Kohala
Sunday   02/01
NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades light
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Sunday   02/01
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Calm to seabreezes
glassy

Hilo
Sunday   02/01
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades light
fairly clean

Kau
Sunday   02/01
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades light
clean

Weather

Feb 1, 2015 8:30 PM HST

Synopsis
Light to moderate trades will continue through tonight as weak surface high pressure remains to the north of the main Hawaiian islands. Winds will begin turning to the southwest and becoming windy late Monday and into Tuesday as a front reaches the area. Additional fronts may impact the islands, keeping prevailing strong west to northwest winds during most of the work week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas today, then spreading into leeward areas as the various fronts reach the islands during the next several days.

Discussion
Weak high pressure remains to the N of the main Hawaiian islands, keeping a light to moderate trade wind pattern across the area until tonight. At 330 am HST, mauka showers were still lingering over windward Maui, with localized heavy rain affecting locations from waihee to honokohau.

The trades will prevail until early Mon when an approaching cold front boundary from the NW will veer winds to a more SW flow. Latest global model solutions are showing better agreement in bringing the leading edge of this front into the NW portions of the aloha state by late Mon night, and moving down the island chain through Tue. Showers will increase with the fropa, with the bulk of the rain expected Mon night and Tue. Also, the consensus between ECMWF and GFS has improved in the latest runs with the ECMWF solution starting to trend towards a wetter and windier scenario. Therefore, the morning package will carry stronger SW and W winds mainly over the smaller islands with breezy conditions developing on Mon afternoon/evening, then becoming windy Mon night into Tue. These strong SW winds may produce locally gusty downslope winds over NE and E facing slopes of some of the smaller islands, and may possibly continue through Thu. Rainfall in general should remain in the moderate category, but localized heavy rain is likely.

Models also show two other fronts moving just to the N or across the area during the second half of the week. Timing still remains rather uncertain in guidance, but in general, expect another frontal system approaching or reaching the area around wed/wed night, and yet another front moving just to the N of the island chain in the late thu/early Fri timeframe. Shower activity will increase with each of these systems, which will also maintain the aforementioned strong W flow across mainly the smaller islands and adjacent waters. This type of flow is very unusual across the main Hawaiian islands for extended periods of time, which may produce local surges and strong wind gusts due to downslope acceleration. Typical areas that exhibit these kind of accelerated winds include the NE and E facing slopes of the Koolau and Waianae mountains, which could bring potential for structural and vegetation damage as well as power outages. Upcoming model runs will provide a clearer picture of what to expect for the work week ahead, and the forecast will be adjusted accordingly.

Models finally bring building sfc high pressure over the area by next weekend, bringing lighter winds and drier conditions.

Aviation
A weak ridge of high pressure just north of the islands will keep a light wind regime in place through tonight, dominated by daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes. Best chances for MVFR cigs and vsbys in SHRA will be across windward and mauka areas, with generally VFR conditions anticipated elsewhere.

Airmets remain in effect for mtn obsc over Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island, and these will likely need to be extended beyond 16Z. Airmets for mtn obsc may become necessary across the other islands this afternoon.

Marine
The high surf advisory has been extended through early this evening as buoy observations do not show a clear downward trend on this swell, which continues to produce combined seas in excess of 10 ft. Therefore, the small craft advisory /sca/ is also in effect through early this evening for areas exposed to the swell.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for north and west facing shores of Niihau and Kauai, and for north facing shores of Oahu Molokai and Maui.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for the waters surrounding Kauai, the Oahu windward waters, the Kaiwi Channel and the Maui county windward waters.



Small craft advisory through 600 pm Thursday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay.
Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

NPAC: 1/27/15
The Jet stream hovers 30-40N latitude (600-1200 miles north of us) and has a decent consolidation from 170E to 150W longitude or 1800 miles West of Hawaii to 600 miles East of us. By Thursday the Jet breaks up with a split off to our West with flows of the trough pointing our way… thus, the front/weather and Konas. By the weekend this feature lifts and NE trades return as the Jet once again begins to extend off Japan and reaching longitudes of Hawaii by Tuesday. This leads to higher chances of storm formation and closer proximity to Hawaii for more wintery WNW-NW surf.

Currently, Surf went fro 2-4’ to 4-6’ and juicy between 7am and 10am. We have a rising WNW building to 10’ by Wednesday from an East bound hurricane force Low last Friday off N. Japan (Hokkaido). The fetch was in the 300-320 band and lifted seas to 25’ tho’ nearly 2000 miles away. It hit the buoys with 20 second forerunners after midnight with the Bay seeing 22 sec. We expect the WNW to take over the recent event with 5-7+’ by the evening session and peak Wednesday at 8-10’ solid at spots like Sunset and Pipe.

Next: the storm weakened as it neared the 180 dateline Sunday the 25th crossing it Monday. Since this portion was closer by 600-800 miles to us we will see significant heights Wed. afternoon maybe over 10’ tho’ with shorter 15 seconds.

Next: A low comes down off the Aleutians on our side of the dateline Thursday-Saturday and hover its fetch for a long lasting NNW swell of 8-12’ for top reefs. It could feather on the 2nd reefs.

Next: by this weekend a large gyre sets up in the Gulf with Lows spinning within for a series of NNW-N swells. The first fetch moves down Sunday and veers East. Surf at 5-7’ from the NNW to N fills late morning Tuesday the 3rd with 14 seconds.

Last: early next week a gyre spins up off Japan with 2 Lows spawning within for a 4-6+ W-WNW swell Friday-Saturday the 6 and 7th of Feb. Shadowing will occur on this up to 295 from Ni’ihau and Kauai.
We may also see some 6’ NNW surf from a nearby source later Saturday the 7th and well keep an eye on this long ranger.

SPAC:
The zonal or west to east flowing Jet in far down off the Ross Ice shelf and tho’ Lows move along its track they’re too distant with fetches too short for anymore than background pulses of 14 seconds. Tho’ we see an equator bound flow Friday 1/30 the Low has marginal winds thus seas are too small to make more than 1’ in Hawaii after 5000 miles. There are a couple Lows early next week from Samoa but they track SE away from us and thus no surf is expected.
One low possibility comes Feb 4th as a storm comes up into NZ but it needs to move farther east if we’re to see surf. We’ll keep an eye out as models can change.

Windward:
Tiny 2’ trade swells into early Feb thanks to all the storm activity in the NPAC weakening and pushing Highs East. We have off and on small NE swell post all these frontal passages.









FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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