Moorewins STEPH6x_8158-heywood Target22 AccessSurf WorldCup Qualifying2 Steph Mark-Richards-610x407_0 Target1 CarissaMaui

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Exclusive Obs: 7am update for A Post Happy Thanks Giving Aloha Friday 11/28 powered by the Vans World Cup

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Partly clear skies. Carissa Moore becomes the first Hawaiian to Win The Target Women's Pro at Honolua Bay granting Stephanie Gilmore her 6th World Title! The Vans Triple Crown's 2nd Jewel The Vans World Cup at Sunset is Off as surfs just 3-5' with poor form. Looks good for Monday and esp. Tuesday on a big WNW.

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North Shore:

Holding from a 6' NNE+N 'swell' @ 13 sec with semi bumpy sideoffshore, wonky 'surf' at 3-5+' at Sunset and Rocky pt., 3-5'; Pipe is poor, wonky 3-4' as well as Chuns & Ali'i. Laniakea is 3-6' handling the angle best. Fairly clear.
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West:

Holding on the N swells @ a clean offshore 1-2 maybe occ. 3' at Makaha and mostly clear.
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Town:

Down and Holding tiny 10 second SSW pushing up some clean offshore 0-1.5' sets at Bowls, Beach Park, Queens. Fairly clear.
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Diamond Head:

Holding background SSE+SSW swells of 0-1 with weak crumbly 2' side offshores. Partly clear.
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Sandy's:

Up and Holding on the N wrap and Trade ENE swell with semi fair 1-3' sets from Full Pt,, 1/2 point and some 3' set peaks into Gas Chambers but breaking close to shore and slamming; mostly cloudy,
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East Makapu'u:

Up and holding on NNE and ENE trade swell with onshore choppy, bumpy 2-4' waves mostly but we saw some near 5' bombs; sand bars are trying as sand gets pulled out; cloudy and cold dawn.

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 81°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 81°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 81°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 81°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 81°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

North

Friday
11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Holding
6' 13 sec N mix, sideoff, windy, partly clear
Saturday
11/29
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping
5' 13 sec
Sunday
11/30
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising Later
4' 12 sec
Monday
12/01
W-NW
Haw: 3-4+
Face: 5-7+
Rising
6-8' 2pm
Tuesday
12/02
W-NW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Rising
9' 15 sec
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West

Friday
11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding
clear, clean
Saturday
11/29
N-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Sunday
11/30
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

Monday
12/01
NNW+NNE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Rising Evening

Tuesday
12/02
W-NW
Haw: 6-8
Face: 10-15
Rising

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South

Friday
11/28
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping
fairly clear, clean, side offshore
Saturday
11/29
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising
iffy
Sunday
11/30
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

Monday
12/01
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Tuesday
12/02
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

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east

Friday
11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Holding

Saturday
11/29
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding

Sunday
11/30
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping

Monday
12/01
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Tuesday
12/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

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Current Swells:

Friday   11/28
Primary: Holding  NNW+NNE  3-6'
Secondary: Holding  ENE+NNE  2-4+'
Third: Holding  S-SW  0-1.5' mostly
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Marine Warnings:

Friday   11/28
small craft adv for all waters; High surf adv for NE and East shores.
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Sailing Report:

Friday   11/28
Good with 15-30mph ENE
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Diving Report:

Friday   11/28
Good for south and west, poor for North and East shore dives

Oahu

SUNSET
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy
bigger for isolated reefs
ROCKY POINT
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Pipeline
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
poor
bigger for isolated reefs
HALEIWA
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

MAKAHA
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

ALA MOANA
Friday   11/28
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-strong
weak

Waikiki
Friday   11/28
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fairly clean

Diamond Head
Friday   11/28
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy
more chop later
Sandy Beach
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Makapuu
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Honolua
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Kihei
Friday   11/28
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-strong
sailin' and kitin'

Hana
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Lahaina
Friday   11/28
SW+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair

Majors
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair

Poipu
Friday   11/28
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair

Kapaa
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
sloppy and choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
sloppy and choppy

Kohala
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

Kona
Friday   11/28
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Hilo
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
sloppy and choppy

Kau
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Weather

Nov 28, 2014 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Surface high pressure far north of the islands will maintain strong and gusty trade winds across the state into this weekend. Lingering low-level moisture will continue to generate scattered showers primarily across windward sections of the Big Island and Maui. Elsewhere, expect brief showers mainly over windward and mauka sections for the next few days. Trade wind speeds are forecast to diminish slightly early next week, with trade showers remaining focused mainly across windward facing slopes and terrain.

Discussion
The tight pressure gradient south of a nearly stationary 1031 mb surface high near 38°N 161°W, or about 1100 miles north of Honolulu, is maintaining strong and gusty trade winds across the main Hawaiian island chain early this morning. Aloft, a mid-tropospheric ridge just east of the islands is also producing stable atmospheric conditions across the region. This is keeping the height of the trade wind inversion relatively low across the island chain. This low inversion is also allowing locally higher wind gusts to occur, especially in channeled areas in the vicinity of higher terrain.

Satellite imagery and radar reflectivity data continue to show low clouds and scattered showers over the windward sections of Maui and the Big Island. Elsewhere, the dry and stable atmospheric conditions are allowing mainly light trade showers to develop over some of the islands west of Maui and the Big Island.

The forecast models indicate the tight pressure gradient will remain across the state through Saturday as the surface high shifts slowly eastward. The coverage of trade showers will remain focused mainly along windward and mauka areas through the remainder of this weekend. The best chance for significant rainfall totals will remain across the windward Big Island, with rainfall amounts expected to be meager elsewhere.

There will likely be little change in the the weather pattern from late this weekend through early next week. As the surface high far north of the state weakens slightly as it shifts eastward, the pressure gradient will start to relax beginning Sunday. This will result in some gradual weakening of trade winds. By mid-week, a modest increase in low-level moisture may occur. The forecast models appear to indicate a mid-tropospheric trough may approach the state from the west next Wednesday. This feature may allow the trade wind inversion height to lift slightly. The increased moisture and the higher inversion combined with some dynamic lift as the mid-level trough arrives may allow the coverage of trade showers to increase across windward and mauka areas starting around mid-week.

Aviation
Fresh and gusty trade winds beneath a well defined inversion aloft are expected to persist today. Wind speeds in excess of 25 kt are expected along northeastern exposures and over mountain ridges, with some local channeled areas potentially experiencing stronger wind gusts. As a result, airmet tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence in the air space leeward of all mountains today.

Trade wind showers are expected to continue affecting mainly windward facing slopes and terrain. Low clouds and numerous showers across the northeast Big Island have required the issuance of airmet sierra for mountain obscuration over the windward Big Island. These conditions are expected to persist beyond sunrise this morning. Brief MVFR cigs may also occur along some windward sections of the smaller islands, especially Maui. Otherwise, VFR conds are expected to prevail across most other areas through this afternoon.

Marine
The current large north northeast swell continues to slowly subside early this morning. The most recent readings from the Hilo, Pauwela, mokapu and Waimea buoys indicate the significant wave height is still around 9 feet with a wave period of about 13 seconds. As a result, the high surf advisory remains in effect for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island today. This swell is forecast to gradually shift to a more northeasterly direction, which combined with locally generated wind waves, will likely keep surf elevated and choppy along east facing shores through most of this weekend.

The current north northeast swell may also cause moderate harbor surges within north facing harbors, such as Kahului and Hilo harbors, through today. Large breaking waves are also possible near the entrances to these north facing harbors. A marine weather statement has been issued to cover this potential threat.

A small craft advisory /sca/ remains in effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters, except the leeward Maui county marine zone through Saturday afternoon due to a combination of strong trade winds and rough seas. Even though seas may eventually subside later this weekend, the typically windy waters adjacent to the islands of Maui and Hawaii counties will likely remain in the SCA from Saturday night into early next week due to the trades remaining locally strong.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST Saturday for all Hawaiian waters, except the Maui county leeward waters.





Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

11/18/14 Tuesday
NPAC
The Jet Stream wind current 30,000’ up has a zonal trough off Japan that also tracks quickly east all week. This steers storms fast from west to east as the Jet extends all the way to the west coast. By Saturday there’s a split in the Jet near the dateline with more energy staring off Japan again as the Jet drops in latitude. So we should be looking a little better for the long haul.
Recent- Currently: We have a peaking 8-10’ NNW this afternoon with brisk side shore NE trades. This swell comes from 2 fetches. One was up near the Aleutians last Thur-Friday and though the winds were stronger the Low was more distant than the 2nd source which really kicked up the surf due to close proximity of under 1000 miles and 20’ seas Saturday. It’ll drop fast Tuesday as close-shorter period events often do.
Next: A couple of storms close together race east in the zonal Jet this past weekend. Most the swell is off to our NE but we’ll still get some 2-4+ NW waves Wed. @ 14 seconds.

Next: Storm #2 spawned Sunday with up to 20’ seas but stayed further away. Watch for 3-5+’ NW surf Thursday.

Next: A storm forms near the date racing east building by Thursday to our North. We miss most its power but WW3 projects 7’ swell @ 15 sec Sunday which would refract/shoal on country reefs up 8’ minimum. I believe it’s being overcalled. So go with 50/50 for now.

Next: Friday another fast moving Low pressure area is 1500 miles to our N but the area of storminess is broad. We should see energy added to the prior episode holding waves in the 5-8’ range Monday.

Next: Another Low producing 20’ seas forms west of the dateline this weekend and with a much better SE track moving our way Sat-Sunday. If all goes well it could keep the surf 6-8’ with 14 seconds Tuesday.

Last: yet another eastbound Low is nearing and crossing the dateline Monday the 24th. WW3 hints of 6’ 15 seconds Friday which seems delayed by a day or two. Long range forecasts are subject to greater changes.


SPAC:
The Jet : We’re still getting semi lucky with background swells well past mid Nov. Currently, the winds are broken with no potential for sea surface winds. But by Wed. we get a bend NNE tho’ it hugs NZL’s west coast before heading right over the Islands. We go quite for about 3-4 days. Then day 7 we get a bit of troughing on the East coast of NZL. So what we see happening are plenty 2’ swells from the SW to SSW when it could be flat to one.

Recent-current: tiny tiny the past several days but buoys popped Monday with 1’ 15 seconds on the Taz fetch from last Tuesday the 11th. Surf picked up Monday and will be very inconsistently 2’ for top zones into Thursday. Fiji cranked on this storm but for us there’s too many obstacles in the way (Fiji, Samoa and hey, even NZL).

Next: Another Taz Low Tuesday the 18th slams into NZL and it’s not likely more than thigh surf @ 15 sec will be felt locally Thursday the 25th.

Last: Friday the 21st shows a Low moving East under the southern Tip of NZL. This is so far out its tough to claim but we’ll go ahead with a 2’ SSW Saturday the 29th.

Windward side: Recently we’ve had Small back ground 1-2’ East swell with some 2’ N mixing in from recent country swells. Surf will ramping up Wednesday thanks to the High NNE of us strengthening for a day with winds up to 30mph. Surf should hit 2-3’ and subside into this weekend. The Jet drops this weekend allowing storms to get closer and cut trades down and therefore windswell will be at a minimum.

Tropics: No activity in the Tropics.






FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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