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645am OBS Tuesday 9/27 Powered by The Shorebird

Scattered clouds leeward, cloudy windward and adjacent shores. Cooler NE trades filling to fresh (10-25mph). Small craft advisory for channels through Friday.

Small N boost. micro SSW, average ENE. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF 7a, 12p, 3p, 5p trend/recap.

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North Shore:

Up a hair on a small 9 sec N to NNW: Sunset 1-2+' to Rocky Pt 1-2+', Pipe 0-1' (Beach park better), Chuns 0-1.5', Laniakea 1-2' maybe soft 3', Haleiwa 0-1'; Light NE trades early filling to moderate/fresh; mostly cloudy.
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West:

Up and holding on the tiny NNW. Down and holding 13 sec SSW. Makaha is 0-1'. Clean with light offshores and mostly clear.
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Town:

Down and holding 13 sec SSW. Surf is 0-1.5' average from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls, Piles to Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens are seeing mostly 1 to just below 2; very clean with light NE trades filling to moderate / fresh and scattered clouds.
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Diamond Head:

Down and holding on the 13 sec SSW. Surf is 1-2' or waist high range. Light-moderate off to side offshore so it's decently smooth again but higher NE trades by mid-morning from Right Hands, Cliffs to Lighthouse; broken cloud.
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Sandy's:

Holding the 8 sec ENE trade and up on a tiny North wrap and down on the SSW. Surf is 1-2.5' & fairly consistent and smooth off to side offshores thanks to NE trades from Full Pt - 1/2 point area & from Pipe-little's to Middle Peaks-into Chambers; NE trades filling to fresh paces & cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on the 8 sec ENE trade and a tiny North swell. Surf is 1-2 barely 3' with the biggest sets just outside from the middle to the left & 2.5' surf filling the inside sandbar. Fun and consistent 1-2+' surf for Keiki's. Early light NE trades filling to fresh with onshore chop and cloudy.

Weather

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 89°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 89°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph NE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 90°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph NE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
76°F
max: 89°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph NE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 90°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph ENE

Range:
10-25mph E-NE
small craft adv for channels
Range:
10-25mph NE
small craft adv for channels
Range:
10-25mph NE
small craft adv for channels
Range:
10-20mph E-NE
no advsrys
Range:
10-20mph E-NE
no advsrys

North

Wednesday
09/28
N
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Holding
3' 8 sec
Thursday
09/29
N
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Dropping

Friday
09/30
N-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Saturday
10/01
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Sunday
10/02
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

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West

Wednesday
09/28
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Thursday
09/29
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Friday
09/30
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Saturday
10/01
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Sunday
10/02
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

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South

Wednesday
09/28
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
1' 15 sec SSE and SW
Thursday
09/29
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding
1' 15 sec
Friday
09/30
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding
1' 15 sec
Saturday
10/01
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Sunday
10/02
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

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east

Wednesday
09/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping

Thursday
09/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding

Friday
09/30
NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising Later

Saturday
10/01
NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

Sunday
10/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

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Current Swells:

Wednesday   09/28
Primary: Holding  N-NE  1-2+' surf at 8-9 sec
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  1-3' surf at 8 sec
Third: Holding  S-SW  Almost 2' surf at 13 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   09/28
Small craft advisory for channels east of Moloka'i
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   09/28
Good for all shores with 10-25 NE Trades
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   09/28
Good for West; fair for deeper North, good for South, fair for select East spots

Oahu

SUNSET
Wednesday   09/28
N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate
fairly clean

ROCKY POINT
Wednesday   09/28
N
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
ENE Trades moderate
semi-clean

Pipeline
Wednesday   09/28
N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate
clean

HALEIWA
Wednesday   09/28
N
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate
semi-clean

MAKAHA
Wednesday   09/28
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades light
smooth

ALA MOANA
Wednesday   09/28
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
NE Trades moderate
good

Waikiki
Wednesday   09/28
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light-moderate
clean

Diamond Head
Wednesday   09/28
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades moderate
fair

Sandy Beach
Wednesday   09/28
COMBO
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Makapuu
Wednesday   09/28
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Wednesday   09/28
N-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Honolua
Wednesday   09/28
N
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades moderate
fairly clean

Kihei
Wednesday   09/28
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades moderate
good

Hana
Wednesday   09/28
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Lahaina
Wednesday   09/28
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light-moderate
clean

Kauai

Hanalei
Wednesday   09/28
N
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
NE Trades moderate
fair to good

Majors
Wednesday   09/28
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light-moderate
good

Poipu
Wednesday   09/28
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
NE Trades moderate
good

Kapaa
Wednesday   09/28
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Wednesday   09/28
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kohala
Wednesday   09/28
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades moderate-fresh
smooth

Kona
Wednesday   09/28
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades moderate
good

Hilo
Wednesday   09/28
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades moderate
bumpy

Kau
Wednesday   09/28
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

BIG PICTURE Wednesday 9.28.16

La Nina is in force this season as we see below average swell into Oct. At this point we only see a 4’ NW Tuesday 10/4 an even smaller NW Sat. the 8th before we finally get a real NW filling the 10th and peaking near 8’ on Tuesday the 11th. And since that’s 2 weeks out we can’t give it a solid claim.

NPAC
The Jet has been split with one branch in the Bering sea and on under the Aleutians with weak winds. A typical La Nina set up as the cooler ocean temps ‘steal’ energy from these large upper air currents 30,000 feet up. This week we see a bit more promise as the southern branch begins to consolidate off Japan and nose past the dateline. Wind speeds are still relatively weak so not much support for surface gale low development. High

Pressures still exert more force against the Lows than visa versa.

#1 What we saw Tuesday from the N to NNW was a head high (3’ local) 9 sec warm up/get in shape session. It came from a High pressure to our NW last weekend tracking east about 1200 N or 40N lat. A fetch on the east flank nosed to about 600 miles. The event should be more and more NNE as it fades later Wednesday onward.

#2 A Low is on the charts today on the dateline about 1200 miles NW but the fetch is very weak. If we’re lucky we might see a couple 2’ NW sets at 10 sec. this Friday. But even this is generous.

#3 A Low comes down ESE off the Kuril Is. Thursday 29th and then veers east Friday 30th across the dateline centered 1500 mi NW. Its near gale fetch on the west flank won’t push out much more than a waist/chest high event at 11 sec filling Tuesday 4th and fading the 5th.

#4 Getting a little better: Wed the 5th a Low comes off the Kurils again tracking east and spreading to off Kamchatka and not only passing the 180 dateline Wednesday it noses to the 170 longitude 600 miles closer. This means less time for swell decay on the 20’ seas from the 35kt winds. WW3 hints for a small NW filling to 2’ Saturday the 8th and peaking near 4’ Sunday.

#5 Could we see our first early gender bender (warm to cold core low) of Fall? Models are calling for a storm to intensify into a Typhoon NE of the Philippines Oct 1st. The track starts NW then is N as it touches the southern tip of Japan by Oct 3rd Then it crawls up the coast thru Tuesday the 4th when it’s track veers NE then East by the 5th as a hefty winter caliber cold core Low. WW3 fantasy is 20 sec forerunners Monday the 10th as it fills to 8’ after dark. We could see 8’ surf at 15 sec Tuesday 11th. These storms are even trickier to call than regular Lows so don’t get hopes high just keep heads up.







Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4+ local) 15 Feet (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)

Surfer's Wall Photos

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