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Exclusive Obs: 650am update for Sunday 12/21 powered by the Vans Tripe Crown

Big swell rising all day withlight NNE Trades. XL12-20 WNW building and peaking this afternoon into Monday.

Hi Surf Warnings for all NW shores & small craft advsys due to large open ocean swells. By noon the NW shores wont look the same. Call the SNN Hotline 808-596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Up and rising on the 20 second WNW; at dawn it's 3-4' at Sunset but Pipe is just 2-3+' for now all the way to Chuns & Ali'i. But, surf's rising as we write. Watch for 10' around noon and near 20' later afternoon. Clean and partly clear.
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West:

Up and rising on the Big WNW swell at Makaha with 1-2-3' sets early then 7' sets Noonish to 12' this afternoon and chance of near 15' peak sets this evening into Monday; glassy & smooth; partly clear.
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Town:

Up and rising to 1-2.5' sets on a 15 second South at Bowls, Kaisers, Beach Park, Queens; partly clear.
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Diamond Head:

Rising S + holding SSE swell of 2-3' sets mostly or waist to head high with good smooth waves and partly clear.
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Sandy's:

Holding on a mix of East trade wind plus tiny SSE; with fairly clean 1-2+' to Gas Chambers. It's 1-2+' at Full Pt,, 1/2 point too; fairly cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on a East trade wind swell at a bumpy 1-2+' more sets on the inside now but maybe a few on the outside from the left to middle and smaller 2' on the far right side with decent sandbars; fairly cloudy.

Weather

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 86°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
3mph SW

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 80°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph NNE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
69°F
max: 79°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph NNE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 79°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph NE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 80°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NE

North

Sunday
12/21
W-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising
near 20' this afternoon; 13' 18 sec
Monday
12/22
NW
Haw: 12-18+
Face: 18-30+
Holding
13' 15 sec
Tuesday
12/23
NW
Haw: 10-12+
Face: 15-20+
Dropping Slowly
10' 14 sec
Wednesday
12/24
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Dropping

Thursday
12/25
NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Dropping

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West

Sunday
12/21
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising
12' this afternoon; clear, clean
Monday
12/22
W-NW
Haw: 10-15
Face: 15-25’
Dropping

Tuesday
12/23
NW
Haw: 8-10
Face: 12-18
Dropping

Wednesday
12/24
NW
Haw: 6-8
Face: 10-15
Dropping

Thursday
12/25
NW SSW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping

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South

Sunday
12/21
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding
2' 15 sec; WNW wrap later
Monday
12/22
S-SW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
2' 14 sec; WNW wrap
Tuesday
12/23
S
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping
+ NW wrap
Wednesday
12/24
S
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Thursday
12/25
S-SE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising
1' 14 sec
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east

Sunday
12/21
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding
NW wrap late
Monday
12/22
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
NW wrap
Tuesday
12/23
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding
NW wrap
Wednesday
12/24
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Thursday
12/25
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

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Current Swells:

Sunday   12/21
Primary: Rising  W-NW  15-20' this afternoon
Secondary: Rising  S-SW  2-3'
Third: Holding  E-NE  1-2'
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Marine Warnings:

Sunday   12/21
Hi Surf Warnings, Small Craft Advsy for large open ocean swell
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Sailing Report:

Sunday   12/21
Fair...NNE winds light
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Diving Report:

Sunday   12/21
Good for South and for East; poor for W and N shores with rising WNW

Oahu

SUNSET
Sunday   12/21
W-NW
Haw: 3-4+
Face: 5-7+
NE Trades light
good

ROCKY POINT
Sunday   12/21
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades light
good

Pipeline
Sunday   12/21
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades light
good
10' midday
HALEIWA
Sunday   12/21
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades light
good

MAKAHA
Sunday   12/21
W-NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades light
smooth

ALA MOANA
Sunday   12/21
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light
smooth

Waikiki
Sunday   12/21
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light
clean

Diamond Head
Sunday   12/21
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades light
good

Sandy Beach
Sunday   12/21
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light
good

Makapuu
Sunday   12/21
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light
fair to good

Maui

Hookipa
Sunday   12/21
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light
good
Bigger later
Honolua
Sunday   12/21
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades light-moderate
good
Bigger later
Kihei
Sunday   12/21
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades light-moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'
WNW 3' late today
Hana
Sunday   12/21
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light
fair to good

Lahaina
Sunday   12/21
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades light
smooth

Kauai

Hanalei
Sunday   12/21
W-NW
Haw: 3-4+
Face: 5-7+
NE Trades light
good
10 'noon; 15+' later
Majors
Sunday   12/21
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades light
good
10' after lunch; 12+ late
Poipu
Sunday   12/21
S-SW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades light
good
WNW wrap evening
Kapaa
Sunday   12/21
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light
fair to good

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Sunday   12/21
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades light
fair to good

Kohala
Sunday   12/21
N
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades light
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Sunday   12/21
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades very light
smooth

Hilo
Sunday   12/21
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light
fair to good

Kau
Sunday   12/21
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Trades light-moderate
good

Weather

Dec 19, 2014 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Moderate trade winds will keep mostly light showers focused over windward slopes into the weekend. From Sunday night into Monday, a front will spread rain, cold air, and strong northerly winds across the state from the northwest. Unsettled weather will continue through about Tuesday, before returning gradually to trade-wind conditions by the end of next week.

Discussion
Surface observations around the main Hawaiian islands reported mostly moderate trade winds. Guidance strongly supported a decrease in wind speeds through the day, but a few outlying observations suggested that this process may take longer than currently expected. For now, we will follow prior thinking.

The inversion height and strength, cloud cover, and shower activity still approximated climatology. Radar detected slightly fewer showers over the coastal waters, but orographic lifting continued to squeeze out widespread, if generally light, accumulation over rain gauges, despite persistently low precipitable water. Aloft, strong and broad ridging kept cirrus layers from the ITCZ south of the Big Island, but only just.

Guidance still agreed fairly well that a long-wave mid-level trough will dig toward the state from the northwest through the weekend, effectively displacing the ridge by Sunday evening, and then sharpening toward the southwest into Tuesday. This development aloft will support the approach of a cold front at the surface. Through about Sunday, the subtropical ridge will recede toward the east ahead of the front, causing surface winds around the islands to diminish and become more southeasterly. From Sunday night into next week, the front will work its way southeast across the state. With significant support from the digging trough aloft, the front will have the opportunity to produce widespread rain. The push of cold air at low levels behind the front also will bring strong northerly winds.

Perhaps most importantly, a very cold pool of air aloft will accompany the mid-level trough. This cold pool will destabilize the atmosphere significantly, introducing a non-trivial Risk of thunderstorms around Monday, mainly from Molokai northwest. A slight chance of thunderstorms has been introduced into the forecast following the local tool run off of model consensus. Strong vertical wind shear will improve the ventilation of any thunderstorms that do develop, potentially allowing some to become severe. It remained much too early to consider a severe thunderstorm watch, but possible high impacts required continued vigilance with respect to this matter.

The cold pool also will introduce the possibility of winter weather over higher elevations of Maui and the Big Island. This far out, much remained uncertain, but generally speaking the available moisture appeared limited largely to below the summits through most of the forecast period. Where both cold temperatures and available moisture coincided, a slight chance of light snow has been included in the forecast as a place holder. Deeper moisture, or thunderstorms developing further south than expected, could increase the Risk of winter weather over the summits dramatically.

From Wednesday into Friday of next week, the trough aloft will lift out toward the northeast, and conditions will return toward climatology. Recent solutions tended to draw out this process, so the relatively quick return of trade-wind weather in the forecast may be too optimistic, and should be reevaluated as more runs become available. On the whole though, trade-wind weather should return by next weekend.

Aviation
Windward and mauka areas will continue to experience passing showers with embedded isol MVFR conditions. Heavier cloud cover and showers remain over Kauai and Big Island this morning, therefore airmet sierra continues. Elsewhere, airmet sierra has been cancelled.

Moderate and gusty trade winds will start to ease today as a ridge begins to build just north of the islands. This will likely allow for the cancellation of airmet tango for low level turb.

There is also mention for possible upper level turb between fl280 and fl420. A jet, with Max winds to 100 kt, sits just south of Hawaii. At this time have not received any pireps, this will be upgraded to an official airmet if reports are received.

Marine
With winds expected to diminish today, and the large northwest swell slowly passing the state, waters around Kauai and most of Oahu should fall below the criteria for a small craft advisory /sca/ this morning. Elsewhere, the advisory will remain in effect through 6 pm HST today. Conditions should subside further this evening, but then another large northwest will produce SCA conditions again by Saturday night.

An even larger NW swell is expected to arrive on Sunday, likely pushing surf heights into warning levels over both north- and west-facing shores of most islands. Deep low pressure far north of the state may continue to produce swells keeping surf elevated to near the advisory levels through the second half of next week.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai windward, Kauai leeward, Waianae coast, Oahu north shore, Oahu Koolau, Molokai, Maui windward west, windward Haleakala.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for Kaiwi Channel, Maui county windward waters, Maui county leeward waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island windward waters, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.






Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

12/21/14 Sunday
NPAC
The Wintery Jet Stream wind currents 30,000’ up is positioned for ongoing big winter gale support, thus our big swells. Jet level Winds off Japan see some 200kt winds but breaks up before the dateline with a big split just west of us. The Jet comes together to our N and all the way to the West coast bring Massive surf to Mavericks etc. By Tuesday the Jets breaks up some and garners a N to S tilt pointing right at us. By Thursday Christmas Day our Jet is cleaner and organized again straight off Japan to the dateline at 30-35N lat. Winds build to near 200kts as the Jet moves its deepest trough further East past the dateline and then dips again with it’s nose touching Hawaii. Sunday-Momday her winds back down to 170kts tho’ elongated and consolidated to Longitudes of Hawaii.

Currently, The water’s stirring and rising with long 20 sec period WNW swells over ride recent swells, creeping into the lines ups and surfers nerves. The size rise delay is from the 285-295 angle shadow of Ni’ihau and Kauai. Still surf is only 3-5+ at 11am with NW buoy at 8’ 17sec and Waimea 2.5’ 20s. Expect some 10’ sets in 4 hours. 15’ by evening. 20’ tonight.
The source is twofold. 1st, a powerful Low off Japan last Tuesday marches east with a very westerly fetch getting to the dateline only 1200 away Friday. This is what we see today. 2nd, this major swell (biggest of the season by far) is followed by a massive low gyre filling the NPAC Friday tracked east slowly with a wide fetch from 310-320 nearing to within 1000 miles. This portion wont have shadowing thus Monday should still see 20’ surf as it declines to 15+ Tuesday.
Next: models show a NNE swell rising Monday-Wednesday peaking 9’ 8 sec with surf getting to 3-5’ for select reefs.
Next: A wintery storm spawns near the Kurils Tuesday with gales remaining 2000 miles off due to a block in the Jet Tuesday-Thursday. WW3 hints of some 4’ 16 sec forerunners Friday the the 26th. And a peak of 8’ 15 sec swell Saturday the 27th refracting reefs seeing 8-10’ NW surf and a slow drop Sunday onward. This model output is likely running hot.

Next: We go into a quite period relatively speaking the end of 2014 and start of 2015. But, long rangers see 10’ surf on Saturday the 3rd of January. Keep you posted.



SPAC
The Jet: down under it’s not looking good for surface gale development. One Jet trough is tilting to the Ice shelf with a loop up but no storm spawns within this week. After this the Jet shuts down seeing winds go zonal and even drop to 100 kts.

Recent-current: We have our 2nd summer like SSW hitting head high Saturday for an early Christmas present. The cause was a 45kt gale SE of NZ Dec 12-14 which shot most its swell SE of us. This event will peak Sunday and fade forever Monday on. Dec was a winner for Town.

Last: Maybe tiny back ground swell Friday the 2nd of Jan from a Low tracking SE near Tahiti this toward the end of week. 1’ 11 sec stuff which leads to thigh high, get wet sessions.

Windward side: Surfs been average with lotsa 2-3’ days and plenty ‘wrap’ days. This week we get above average with some 4’ NNE swell and a front-shearline creating some cold brisk 30mph NE winds Monday-Tuesday. Surf to last into Wed tho’ winds drop a little. We get all back to normal end of this week.
Tropics: No storms for Hawaii swell.







FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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