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Exclusive Obs: 9am Saturday Feb 28, powered by: Surfer, the Bar: Talk Story Wedneday

Rainy at times today (Flood Advisory for north shore Oahu & Molokai) and cloudy with breezy NE'erlies. Minor swells under 3'.

Dropping NW & NE swells with a small south bump today but not much sunshine except for Kauai then Oahu. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping on the NE & NW (NW buoy 275 miles NW: 5' 9 sec). Currently, it's a lully 1-3' at Sunset Pt, maybe 2' at Pipe and Chuns, 0-2' for Haleiwa with semi poor/bumpy conditions & breezy; clearing. (AM FLOOD ADVISORY)
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West:

Down and dropping on the NW at 0-1 occ 2'. Semi clean offshores with NE'erlies; clear.
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Town:

Rising on a small new south; surf is clean at 0-2' mostly at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area is 0-1.5'. Breezy offshores today and partly clear.
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Diamond Head:

Rising a little on a small south at 1-2' with nice offshores; nicer weather (see SNN Cam).
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Sandy's:

Holding on the E-NE swell and tiny SSW at 1-2+' out at Full Point and in the shorebreak with NE trades and semi-smooth ; clearing clouds.
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East Makapu'u:

Dropping from E-NE trade angle at 1-3' on the left to the middle with surf on the right too; bumpy with some clouds & showers but getting better.

Weather

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 82°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NNE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 84°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph NE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 83°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph NE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 83°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph NE

N-NE
10-25
Increasing
NE
10-20

NE
10-20

NE
5-15

N-NE
10-20+

North

Saturday
02/28
NW+NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
Rainy
Sunday
03/01
NW+NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

Monday
03/02
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Rising
7' 14 sec
Tuesday
03/03
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Dropping
6' 11 sec
Wednesday
03/04
W-NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Rising
4' 15 sec
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West

Saturday
02/28
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping
Cloudy
Sunday
03/01
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Monday
03/02
NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Rising

Tuesday
03/03
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

Wednesday
03/04
W-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Rising

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South

Saturday
02/28
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
smooth, offshores
Sunday
03/01
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping
1.5' 13 sec
Monday
03/02
SSE+SSW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Rising
1' 18 sec SSE
Tuesday
03/03
S-SE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Holding
2' 16 sec SSE
Wednesday
03/04
S-SE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding
2' 15 sec
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east

Saturday
02/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Dropping
Showers
Sunday
03/01
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Monday
03/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Tuesday
03/03
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
03/04
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Saturday   02/28
Primary: Dropping  NW  1-2'+
Secondary: Dropping  E-NE  1-3'
Third: Rising  S-SW  1-2+
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Marine Warnings:

Saturday   02/28
small surf advsry till monday
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Sailing Report:

Saturday   02/28
Good with breezy N-NE'er'ies
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Diving Report:

Saturday   02/28
Good for south and west; fair/good for deeper east & north shores

Oahu

SUNSET
Saturday   02/28
NW+NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

ROCKY POINT
Saturday   02/28
NW+NE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
NE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair
Showers
Pipeline
Saturday   02/28
NW+NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

HALEIWA
Saturday   02/28
NW+NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair
Showers
MAKAHA
Saturday   02/28
NW+NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate
fairly clean

ALA MOANA
Saturday   02/28
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades moderate
fair to good

Waikiki
Saturday   02/28
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate
fair to good

Diamond Head
Saturday   02/28
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Sandy Beach
Saturday   02/28
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate
semi-clean

Makapuu
Saturday   02/28
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate
mild choppiness

Maui

Hookipa
Saturday   02/28
NW+NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
mild choppiness
Showers
Honolua
Saturday   02/28
NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'
Showers
Kihei
Saturday   02/28
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades moderate-fresh
diving , paddling and fishin'

Hana
Saturday   02/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate
mild choppiness

Lahaina
Saturday   02/28
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades moderate
fairly clean

Kauai

Hanalei
Saturday   02/28
NW+NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

Majors
Saturday   02/28
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate
semi-clean

Poipu
Saturday   02/28
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate
clean

Kapaa
Saturday   02/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate
mild choppiness

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Saturday   02/28
NW+NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
mild choppiness

Kohala
Saturday   02/28
W
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Saturday   02/28
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Hilo
Saturday   02/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
mild choppiness

Kau
Saturday   02/28
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate
semi-clean

Weather

Feb 28, 2015 3:43 AM HST

Synopsis
A weakening front currently near Maui will drift slowly eastward today. Moisture along this front combined with instability aloft due to an upper trough will produce locally heavy downpours along with a slight chance for thunderstorms across the eastern half of the state. Drier weather will prevail across the western sections. Trade winds will spread across the state on Sunday as the front dissipates, but lingering enhanced moisture and instability will remain near the Big Island with locally heavy rains once again possible. A wet and breezy trade wind pattern will prevail across the state from Monday through at least the middle of next week.

Discussion
Widely scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms have persisted around the Big Island during the night, although most of the activity has remained offshore. Radar returns streaming over Maui county appear to be caused by thick mid level clouds, with rain gauges showing very little recent precip there. Mostly dry conditions prevail further west over Oahu and Kauai, with just some isolated light rainfall amounts measured during the night. Surface analysis depicts a weak front through the center of the state, likely located near Maui at this time. Northerly low level winds have spread over Kauai and Oahu to the west of this boundary, while light NE to E winds prevail to the east. Aloft, the state lies under the exit region of a 100+ kt jet streak over the central Pacific, and in the southeast quadrant of a mid level trough. The 12Z Lihue sounding measured cold 500 mb temps of -14C, but a rather meager pwat of only 1.06 inches, and an inversion based around 8000 feet with a very dry profile above. In contrast, the 12Z Hilo sounding was notably moist and unstable, with pwat of 1.61 inches, sbcape over 1800 j/kg, no convective inhibition, 500 mb temp of -11C and a lifted index of -6.

Mimic-tpw satellite imagery shows a band of enhanced moisture over the central and eastern parts of the state, with estimated pwats up to 1.7 inches. A considerably drier airmass has pushed into Kauai and is spreading into Oahu.

For today, the weak front/trough will continue drifting east to near the Big Island, with n/ne low level flow spreading across Maui county in its wake. Enhanced low/mid level moisture will remain pooled along and to the east of the trough, and the atmosphere will remain unstable aloft as the mid level trough and the upper level jet stream exit region moves only slightly eastward. As a result, a chance for scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist over the Big Island and Maui county. Models have trended to a drier solution for Oahu, and have removed mention of heavy rains there. Mainly dry weather will continue across Kauai today, with scattered showers confined to the northern slopes and mountains.

Tonight and Sunday, the dissipating front/trough will continue drifting slowly eastward. Enhanced moisture along the front combined with continued instability aloft and the nearby jet stream will maintain the chance for locally heavy rains and isolated thunderstorms over eastern sections of the state. Further to the west, scattered showers will become focused over windward and mauka sections of Oahu as trade winds increase. Drier conditions will continue on Kauai with just some light showers possible in the mountains and on the windward slopes.

A wet and breezy trade wind pattern will likely develop statewide Sunday night and Monday, then persist through at least the middle of next week. A lingering mid/upper level trough overhead will maintain somewhat unstable conditions aloft with the usual mid level inversion likely remaining weak or absent, and model consensus shows plenty of available low level moisture being pushed against the terrain by brisk trade wind flow.

The latest ECMWF and GFS diverge somewhat toward the end of next week. Both models keep strong trades in place, but the ec pushes a drier airmass south across the state while the GFS keeps moisture further north in response to a developing low pressure area near the dateline.

Aviation
A weak front/surface trough continues to be the focus for enhanced shower activity. The front is currently positioned over Maui county and is forecast to move slowly eastward, reaching the Big Island by evening. Localized heavy showers and possible lighting are associated with this feature.

Tempo MVFR conds and scattered showers are expected to persist across Maui county through Saturday night. Gradual improvement is expected on Oahu where showers will become isolated by noon and VFR conds will predominate. Kauai, well within the drier northerly flow, will see only patchy VFR clouds and isolated showers.

On the Big Island, afternoon breezes will encourage cumulus buildups and isolated showers over the island's interior. Then towards evening tempo MVFR conds are expected to develop across windward Big Island in response to the approaching front/trough and the reassertion of easterly flow.

The high clouds between 13000 and 30000 ft Oahu southeastward are associated with a slow moving upper level trough. This high level overcast is expected to persist across the eastern half of the state through Saturday night and beyond. Tempo light ice within this layer up to fl250.

Marine
The Friday evening ascat pass found n/ne winds from Oahu westward behind the front, with some 20 kt winds around Kauai. Light ne/e winds prevailed over the eastern and central parts of the state. Ne winds will spread slowly eastward and strengthen today and tonight, then increase further on Sunday with a good chance for small craft advisory conditions in the channels. Breezy trades appear likely to continue through next week, with SCA conditions in the normally windier spots possibly becoming more widespread during the second half of the week, when the trades may increase another notch.

Easterly swell around 5 ft and 10 seconds will remain the dominant source of seas across most areas today, though fresh northerly winds developing around Kauai and Oahu will produce somewhat larger seas in those areas. Surf along east facing shores will remain below high surf advisory levels as the east swell gradually declines during the weekend. Surf along north facing shores will remain low through Sunday. A north-northwest swell will push north shore surf close to minimal advisory levels late Sunday night and Monday. This swell will peak Monday then fade away through midweek. See the collaborative nearshore swell and wind forecast /srdhfo/ for more details.


Broken clouds are clouds which cover between 6/10 and 9/10 of the sky while scattered clouds is a sky condition when between 1/10 and 5/10 of clouds are covered.
Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture
2/28/15
NPAC
The Jet stream is not looking anything like earlier this month. In fact, there are 2 high pressure zones, one to our NE moving south and one to our NW moving SE. The later is blocking the Jet and thus the Lows are staying far way. Say good bye for now to the long pattern of big waves from nearby big storms cutting off the trades. All the way through the 7 day forecast highs dominate and even send the Jet flow above the Aleutians. The Jet trough gets deeper toward next weekend to our East which only helps in bringing weather not NW waves.
Recent/Current: The NW shores have gone from extreme WNW swells from close Lows and light konas to N swells and cold NE trades, total opposites. This weekend its 3’ side-shores and cold.
Next: A compact 35-45kt storm spawned just our side of the dateline Friday and moved SE toward HI with a captured fetch (adjacent winds ‘follow’ the Lows center aiming at its target). The nose reaches to about 800 miles to our NNW Saturday thus less open ocean swell decay time. We’ll go ahead and claim solid Advsry level 6-8’ NNW surf Monday. This episode will drop fast to 5’ Tuesday plus NE side off shores will not be optimal.
Next: A Low formed off the Kuirls Friday and is moving ENE with a broad apparent fetch in the 310-330 band. The winds don’t get under 1800 miles away so plenty swell decay will reduce this WNW to 3-5’ Wednesday-Thursday. Periods will be 13-15 seconds. Side off shores will persist.
Last: We may see a small 4’ N to NNE swell fill Sunday the 8th from a small Low to our NNE Friday. The storm builds and broadens into Sunday so we may see some extra size Monday of 4-6’ from the N at 12 seconds.

SPAC:
Not looking good for surface low enhancement until this Friday when a fat deep trough points up into the Taz. Models say ‘no swell production’ from this forecast as the Low stays too zonal and breaks up.
Recent/Current: we’ve had plenty small but fun/doable ‘background’ SSE to SSW over the past week or two; add in the West wraps and Town side has been above seasonal. Plus, the entire Leeward side likes the NE tilt to the trade pattern we’re now in.
Next: A big Low 1000 miles South of Tahiti tracked east beyond our optimal window by Tuesday the 24th. But it was a powerful storm and should send up some 18 sec forerunners Monday with slowly building inconsistent SSE surf of 3’ by late in the day peaking Tuesday-Wednesday. Some reefs like Tennis Courts and Kaisers could see some sets a foot overhead. Other SSW sucking spots will hit shoulder high.
Next: a small chance of small 2’ SSW surf at 14 seconds could fill late Thursday the 5th from a marginal east bond Low far to the SE of NZ end of Feb.
Long ranger fantasy: Tons of storminess moves east from under Australia into the Taz mid week Wednesday but the fetch is not right. WW3 is getting excited tho’ and hinting of some 18 sec forerunners around Wed the 11th with 3’ SSW surf Thur-Saturday the 12-14th. We need to get closer to claim.
Windward: The Low that started off Japan and gave us our Wester ended up near to HI and produced 20-30kt winds on her NW side allowing for some isolated 1-3’ N wind swell this past week. In addition, we had some solid 3’ East swell produced by the pressure gradient between the persistent NE High and the Trough to our ENE. All fades from Sunday from these 2 sources. However, thanks to the fresh NE trades we’ll add back some 1-3’ NE surf into Monday and ‘maybe’ even Tuesday.

















FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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