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Exclusive Obs: 7am Sunday March 29, powered by: Fresh Cafe

Strengthening NE'erly trades with partly cloudy skies. Tides flat.

North shore's rising today on a new WNW with town also rising on the SSE but with long lulls. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Up and rising on the new WNW. NW buoy (275 miles away) is 5' 15 sec. Surf is 1-2+' and clean at Sunset with light NE; Pipe/OTW up to 1-2'; Rocky's area is 1-2+'; Chuns 1-2+' and its smooth and clean; Look for all spots to rise to 4-6' by later today; partly cloudy.
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West:

Up and rising at Makaha on the WNW at mostly 1-2'. 4' by later today. clean and partly cloudy.
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Town:

Up and rising on the SSE; surf is clean offshores at 1-2+' or chest highs at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area 1-2'. Higher sets likely but with long lulls. partly cloudy skies.
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Diamond Head:

Up and rising on the SSE and slightly bumpy at 2-3', fair side offshores thanks to NE trades; partly cloudy.
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Sandy's:

Up and rising on the new 15 second SSE at 2-3' sets from Half and Full Pt. and Gas Chambers with lite side-shores; partly cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on the E-NE trade at 1-2.5' from the left to the middle with 2' at Keikis and choppy/bumpy; partly cloudy.

Weather

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 85°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
3mph SE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 87°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph E

NE
10-20

NE
5-15+

E-NE
10-20

E-NE
5-15

E-NE
10-20

North

Sunday
03/29
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
partly cloudy, 4-6' late
Monday
03/30
W-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping Slowly

Tuesday
03/31
W-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping
5' 12 sec
Wednesday
04/01
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping

Thursday
04/02
NW
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
Rising
3' 12 sec
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West

Sunday
03/29
W-NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
clean, partly cloudy; 4' late
Monday
03/30
W-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Dropping Slowly
+ SSW
Tuesday
03/31
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping

Wednesday
04/01
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

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South

Sunday
03/29
S-SE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding
Clean;long lulls
Monday
03/30
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Tuesday
03/31
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding
trace South 15 sec
Wednesday
04/01
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Thursday
04/02
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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east

Sunday
03/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding
mostly cloudy, choppy
Monday
03/30
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Tuesday
03/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Wednesday
04/01
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Thursday
04/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Sunday   03/29
Primary: Rising  W-NW  surf 5-7' afternoon; 14 seconds
Secondary: Dropping  S-SE  1-2+' surf at 15 sec SSE
Third: Holding  E-NE  1-2.5' surf at 8 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Sunday   03/29
None now, small craft adv for channels later
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Sailing Report:

Sunday   03/29
Good with NE trades filling 10-25mph
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Diving Report:

Sunday   03/29
Fair for South and West (surges) and fair for select deeper East (windy); good on the North shores early in the day.

Oahu

SUNSET
Sunday   03/29
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
good

ROCKY POINT
Sunday   03/29
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
smooth

Pipeline
Sunday   03/29
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
clean

HALEIWA
Sunday   03/29
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
smooth

MAKAHA
Sunday   03/29
W-NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades light-moderate
good

ALA MOANA
Sunday   03/29
S-SE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
clean
Long Lulls, iso 3'
Waikiki
Sunday   03/29
S-SE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
smooth
Long Lulls
Diamond Head
Sunday   03/29
S-SE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades light-moderate
slightly bumpy

Sandy Beach
Sunday   03/29
SSE+SSW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Makapuu
Sunday   03/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Sunday   03/29
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate
bumpy
4' later
Honolua
Sunday   03/29
W-NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades light-moderate
good

Kihei
Sunday   03/29
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades light-moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Hana
Sunday   03/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
choppy

Lahaina
Sunday   03/29
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades light-moderate
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Sunday   03/29
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
good
3-5' late
Majors
Sunday   03/29
W-NW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
NE Trades light-moderate
good

Poipu
Sunday   03/29
S-SE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Kapaa
Sunday   03/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Sunday   03/29
W-NW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
NE Trades moderate
choppy
rising
Kohala
Sunday   03/29
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades light-moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Sunday   03/29
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
clean

Hilo
Sunday   03/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
NE Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Kau
Sunday   03/29
S-SE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
NE Trades light-moderate
fair
lulls

Weather

Mar 29, 2015 5:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Trade winds will increase today through Monday, bringing a slight increase in windward showers, mainly on Kauai and Oahu. A couple of upper level disturbances passing north of the islands will result in the weakening of trade winds again on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, and may briefly enhance showers over the state.

Discussion
Stronger trade winds are staging a comeback early this morning, as indicated by both radar data as well as low cloud movements. Quite a bit of low level moisture are present in the island vicinity early this morning, with radar data showing an area of rain clouds just northeast of Oahu at time. Much of these showers will affect the windward areas under the increasing trade winds. Early morning soundings still depict a rather dry air mass in the island vicinity, though Lihue sounding has become a tad more unstable compared to Saturday afternoon. Look for passing low clouds and showers to affect mainly windward and mountain areas today, while lee areas should experience mostly fair weather.

Trade winds will be the strongest tonight and Monday over the islands, as a surface high pressure passes east far north of the state. Trade wind weather will continue Monday, with passing low clouds and showers affecting mainly windward areas.

A progressive mid-level short wave trough is forecast to pass the state on Tuesday. Its present will induce the development of a surface trough in the island vicinity. As the surface trough develops, winds will once again weaken across the islands. In fact, winds may become light and variable enough allowing land and sea breezes to develop. Forecast models indicate the atmosphere will become only slightly unstable due to this short wave. But then deeper convection can develop over the islands under the converging sea breezes in the afternoon, bringing possible locally heavier showers. This mid-level trough will track swiftly east Wednesday, with stronger trade winds returning to the state briefly.

Another mid-level short wave trough is expected to pass over the islands Thursday through Friday as indicated by the forecast models. Even though this next disturbance is forecast to be a weak feature, another surface trough is expected to develop in the island vicinity, resulting in winds becoming light across the area again. Convective weather with land and sea breezes are expected Thursday through Saturday. Furthermore, forecast models also hint the atmosphere in the island vicinity may become more unstable. Showers will therefore be enhanced. Stronger trade winds may return to the area toward early next week, though that is subject to change due to high variations between model runs.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture
3/13/15
NPAC
The Jet stream looks consolidated and zonal (west to east) from off Japan with high 200kt pockets to our NW. The nose of the Jet points down on the longitudes near Hawaii Nei leading to some weather and brisk NE winds. There’s been a large eddy in the Jet level to out NE allowing for ongoing Lows to spin off within it like a conveyor belt. Thus, we see our N swell with this latest being the biggest by far. The large upper air currents will weaken lots by midweek reducing the size probabilities of storms and thus swell.
Recent/Current: Way above seasonal average today with surf up to 18’ on the outer reefs but victory at sea. The Bay is cracking 10-15’ in the bowl but terrible conditions with only solo contenders. This will prevail for this episode thnks to the NNE winds.
Source: Tuesday’s charts showed a SE tracking Low with a 1-2 punch. Seas were over 25’ and by Thursday winds increased as the system neared; left over winds under 300 miles away Friday but not before pushing down some upgraded 10-18’ NNW surf with 15 seconds Friday the 13th… our lucky day. Saturday should still see some 12’ surf from a more northerly angle and winds are expected to be strong NE side onshore.
Next: Thnks to the zonal jet, our storms are moving east fast with no major fetches for us next week. There are a few to keep it ride-able. The first one is from a generic gale zone to our NNW this weekend which may send down some 3-5’ NW surf filling later Tuesday the 17th with light winds too and lasting into Wednesday!
Next: More weak winds off to our NW Tuesday may send down smaller 11 sec NW surf of 2-4’ Friday the 20th and keep it fun all weekend.
Next: A better shot spawns Wed the 18th of the Kurils and we get a partially captured fetch for less than a day as the Low tries for 22’ seas as it crosses the dateline Friday the 20th …Forerunners should hit Sunday the 22nd and the main thrust will be Monday with 5-7’ surf at 14 seconds. It’ll drop fast Tuesday onward.
Last: long ranger GFS output calls for a small 4-6’ NW the 28th but let’s wait and see.
SPAC:
Jetstream has 2 branches with the North having the highest winds and even points NNE this weekend from just under Tahiti.
Recent/Current: We have 2 sources for our small SW swells. A broad fetch in the Taz Thursday March 5th had models claiming a rise Thursday the 12th at 15 seconds. It’ll be a slow rise and inconsistent and only some spots reaching chest high. By Friday the SW was more filled in and esp by Saturday…this is from the highest 50kt phase of the storm in the Taz. Fiji was cranking 8-12’ Monday Tuesday. We’re hoping for a few 3’ sets Friday-Saturday the 13-14th. The other source is Cat 4 Cyclone Pam which is tearing through Vanuatu just west of Fiji with 155kts. http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/cyclone-pam-vanuatu-south-pacific
Pam tracked SSE slowly over 2400 miles away earlier this week and will weaken lots by the time she nears NZ. As for as surf for us the fetch on her west flank was always short but angular spreading could add some energy up to chest high into Tuesday.
Next: Another weaker Low in below the Taz could keep 2’ SW surf coming as background energy into the wkend of the 21st.
Last but not least: Pam ends up spinning off NZ most of the upcoming week as she merges with another system and they occlude Wednesday, stalling and broadening. This should lead to a long lasting above average SSW swell of 15 seconds Monday-Thursday 23-26th.
Windward: It’s all about the 2-4’ N swell wrapping in with the gusty NE winds but by Sunday winds, waves and weather mellow out. Then models reramp the Trades Thursday the 19th thus a fairly typical uptick to 3’…

















FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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