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7am OBs Friday 8/28 powered by Surf n Sea Full Moon Paddle Tour

City opened up water in town! Sandy's still bad. Decent weather first half of day w/ light trade flow & chance of seabreezes+clouds/rain later.

New WNW rising and SW holding. 'Big Picture' updated so click link. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Up and rising on the 18-20 sec forerunner from the WNW (Atsani). Sunset is 2-4' and Rocky Pt is 2-3+'; Pipe is 1-3' Ehukai & Chuns are better at 2-3+ & Laniakea is 1-2+'; super clean in the morning with lite variables with E flow; semi clear for now but clouds, rain this afternoon.
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West:

Up and rising on the WNW and holding the SW with 2-4' at Makaha and up to 6' later today; glass/good & crowds early but onshore seabreeze mush later; fairly clear early but clouds, rain this afternoon.
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Town:

Holding on a 15 sec SW + some SSE. Surf's 2-3' rare plus at Bowls and glassy with lite offshore mix at Ala Moan, Kewalo's-Bowls-Kaisers (channel reefs); seabreeze onshores later; fairly clear first half, but clouds, rain this afternoon.
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Diamond Head:

Holding on the 14 sec SW+ holding the SSE @ 2-3' maybe +' on takeoffs, smooth lite side offshores and good form at Right hands/Cliffs/Lite House etc; partly clear, humid; clouds, rain this afternoon.
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Sandy's:

Dirty water signs: risky due to run off. Holding on mostly the SSW @ 2-3' and chance of plus every hour. Full Pt. etc has smaller 2' sets; smooth from Pipe little's all the way to Gas Chambers; fun sandbars & lite trade flow with partly clear skies & humid; but clouds, rain this afternoon.
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East Makapu'u:

Up a hair & Holding from the East + NE at 0-1 occ 2' & smooth; cloudy, humid, but more clouds, rain this afternoon.

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 90°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 91°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 91°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph NE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 92°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph NNE

Range:
5-10mph E-NE
Trade flow increasing
Range:
10-20mph E-NE
filling in
Range:
10-25mph NE

Range:
10-25mph E-NE
Tropical Storm conditions, rain, Thunder storms
Range:
10-25mph E-NE
Tropical Storm conditions, rain, Thunder storms

North

Friday
08/28
W-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Rising
2.5' 18-20 sec forerunners; clean, partly clear; 6' later
Saturday
08/29
W-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Holding
3.5' 17 sec
Sunday
08/30
W-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Dropping
4' 15 sec
Monday
08/31
W-NW
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Dropping
3' 14 sec
Tuesday
09/01
N-NW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising

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West

Friday
08/28
W-NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
partly clear, smooth veering onshore later; bigger surf soon
Saturday
08/29
W-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Holding
+ SSW
Sunday
08/30
W-NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding

Monday
08/31
W-NW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Dropping

Tuesday
09/01
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
new 3' N wrap
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South

Friday
08/28
SW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Holding
+SSE; improving dirty water, clear, glassy; 3' 15 sec
Saturday
08/29
SSE+SSW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding
2' 14 sec
Sunday
08/30
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Holding

Monday
08/31
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Tuesday
09/01
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising Later
1' 18 sec
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east

Friday
08/28
NE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Holding
partly clear, glassy
Saturday
08/29
E-NE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Holding

Sunday
08/30
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Monday
08/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

Tuesday
09/01
E-NE
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Rising
8' 11 sec: Hurricane Ignacio
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Current Swells:

Friday   08/28
Primary: Rising  W-NW  3-5+' surf later at 18 sec
Secondary: Holding  SW  2-3+' surf at 14 sec
Third: Rising  S-SW  1-2' at 15 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Friday   08/28
Flash flood watch, brown water run off improving for select areas: obey signs
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Sailing Report:

Friday   08/28
Poor with light variables and trade flows with onshore seabreezes later with cloud/rain build up this afternoon.
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Diving Report:

Friday   08/28
Poor for north, west, and south and fair to good for east. Watchout/stay out: dirty brownish waters.

Oahu

SUNSET
Friday   08/28
W-NW
Haw: 3-4+
Face: 5-7+
Trades very light
smooth
6' later; stay out of isolated brown water
ROCKY POINT
Friday   08/28
COMBO
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Trades very light
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water
Pipeline
Friday   08/28
W-NW
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Trades very light
smooth
Ehukai bigger;stay out of isolated brown water
HALEIWA
Friday   08/28
COMBO
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Variables to sea-breezes
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water
MAKAHA
Friday   08/28
COMBO
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +
Variables to sea-breezes
smooth am...mushy pm
stay out of isolated brown water
ALA MOANA
Friday   08/28
SW
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Variables to sea-breezes
smooth am...mushy pm
imroving but stay out of isolated brown water
Waikiki
Friday   08/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Variables to sea-breezes
smooth am...mushy pm
imroving but stay out of isolated brown water
Diamond Head
Friday   08/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Trades light
smooth am...mushy pm

Sandy Beach
Friday   08/28
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Trades very light
smooth
Obey signs: stay out of isolated brown water
Makapuu
Friday   08/28
E
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Trades very light
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water

Maui

Hookipa
Friday   08/28
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Variables
good
stay out of isolated brown water
Honolua
Friday   08/28
COMBO
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Trades light
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water
Kihei
Friday   08/28
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Trades very light
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water
Hana
Friday   08/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades very light
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water
Lahaina
Friday   08/28
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Trades very light
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water

Kauai

Hanalei
Friday   08/28
W-NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Trades very light
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water
Majors
Friday   08/28
COMBO
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Variables to sea-breezes
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water
Poipu
Friday   08/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Trades very light
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water
Kapaa
Friday   08/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades very light
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Friday   08/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades very light
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water
Kohala
Friday   08/28
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Variables to sea-breezes
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water
Kona
Friday   08/28
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Variables to sea-breezes
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water
Hilo
Friday   08/28
E-NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Variables
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water
Kau
Friday   08/28
COMBO
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Trades light
smooth
stay out of isolated brown water

Weather

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture Tuesday update 8/25/15

NPAC
The majority of the Jet is far above the Aleutians and some trough off Japan. High pressure is established off to the NE but trades haven’t competed well against the effects of Kilo and nearby troughing.
The tough off Japan deepened this week right as Atsani recurves from the tropics up into the subtropics (a gender bender) merging with and feeding off the energy creating a long lasting fun but downgraded WNW.

Recent and current: Today we see a and that ongoing West up to 3’ for Chuns etc thanks to Typhoon Atsani (8/13-8/24) and this storm will gift us at the end of the upcoming week as it becomes a cold core extra Tropical Low in the NPAC. Read below. Plus there’s a tiny 2’ NE at 9 sec for Laniakea.

Next: Kilo and Loke may add in subtle West energy under Atsani.

Next: Former Atsani spins off Japan from its NE track with 45’ seas as its veers ENE reaching 500 miles off the dateline .Most the energy points off to the NE as Atsani tracks N again and wanes. But a 3-5’ WNW surf at 16-18 sec should fill Friday and peak Saturday before fading Sunday.

Next: A small Low tracking down from the Gulf of Alaska should push down some 4’ surf at 11 seconds Tuesday Sept 1st and last into Thursday morning.

Last: A broader Gulf Low spins up Aug 31st but has an ESE track. We should still see some NE swell around the 5th of Sept. Chance of ENE swell from 12-E below but it’s too early to claim.

SPAC:

Recent and current: Several sources. We currently have a fun solid 2+’ WSW from Atsani and SSE swell from French Polynesia. This was good for last weekend for the Dukes 125th B Day Oceanfest and the NoRep Hawaiian Surfing Championships.

Next: More SSE fills Wednesday from near Tahiti 5 days ago again and this will last into Friday adding to this will be a SSW.

Next: A quick zonal Low near the Ross Ice Shelf last week should bring in some 1-2+ Friday from the SSW at 16 seconds. With the SSE Mix we’ll see solid 3’ or head high waves into the weekend.

Next: This Monday-Wed a huge Low tracks east from under Australia and out to the SE of NZL by Wednesday the 26th. Seas are about 30’ but the zonal track will limit surf to 2-3’ from the SSW with 16 seconds filling all day Thursday Sept 1st and peaking Wed-Thursday 2nd-3rd with a good chance at some just overhead sets.

Next/last: A powerful storm rises NE off the Ross Ice Shelf SE of NZL with some 40’ seas Friday the 28th. It broadens with a huge area of winds allowing for the consolidation of open ocean sea growth. WW3 long range often run hot or overcalls on its initial output and have started to downgrade each day for a few days. But, we’ll go ahead and claim good SSW swell to kick off September. Its rise all day Thursday the 3rd and peak reefs hitting up to 5’ surf from the SSW at 16-18 sec later Friday peaking Saturday the 5th.

Windward:

Recent and current: Surfs been good with off and on pulses from the NE. Other than that we’ve had the typical range of 2 and 3’ Wind swell. The High to the NE is stable and allowing for upstream fetches and 8-9 seconds which means better refraction esp for spots in the country and to the NE. Large surf likely from 12-E below 9/5.
Tropics: Most models predict a tropical cyclone, likely Twelve-E, to approach the islands from the southeast by early next week. While it was much too early to speculate about the possible track and effects, the moisture surge surrounding the cyclone may produce significant effects anyway, as the events of Kilo the last couple of days demonstrated. Many models also predicted the trough aloft to dig toward the islands over the weekend. Thus, early next week may well start with another concentrated bout of convection.

Next: Looks like models are saying 12-E will resemble a hurricane early next week. WW3 calling for a fast huge ramp up in close interval ENE surf Sat the 5th at 12’ 11 seconds. Warnings will go up if the long range comes true. This is just a heads up. Today, the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Twelve-E, located well east-southeast of the Islands.


Hurricanes so far….

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores Enrique Felicia
Guillermo Hilda Ignacio Jimena Kevin Linda
Marty Nora Olaf Patricia Rick Sandra
Terry Vivian Waldo Xina York Zelda









FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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