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Exclusive Obs: special 645am update for Friday powered by the Vans World Cup

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Much clearer and lighter ENE Trades and filling 10-20+ mph by ~9am. Vans Triple Crown's 2nd Jewel The Vans World Cup at Sunset starts Monday 11/24 on a 5-8+' NW but w/a frontal passage & light NW winds.

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North Shore:

Down and Holding all day from yesterda's reinforcing 13 sec WNW mixing with the old NNW with lully sets of 2-3' at Sunset. Rocky pt. is fair at 2-3'. Pipe and Ali'i are fair 1-2+' all with light offshores and clear.
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West:

Holding a WNW+NNW @ 0-1 occ 2' at Makaha with good, clean light offshores and clear.
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Town:

Holding tiny 13 second SSW pushing up some 0-1 occ 2' waves/20 minutes. This Taz swell peaked 2 days ago at only 1' of swell. It's good, clean moderate offshores at Ala Moana-Kaisers & the Beach Park; Queens 0-1.5' and clean. Clear.
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Diamond Head:

Holding some SSE wind and occas SSW swell of 0-1-2' fair to good side offshore crumbly bump. Clear.
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Sandy's:

Holding on mostly ENE windswell & tiny SSW swell with bumpy windy 1-2 occ 3' . From Full Pt, is biggest and 1/2 point and some peaks into Gas Chambers but still close to shore; fairly clear.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on ENE trade swell with NE trades 10-20 onshore chop @ 2-3 occ higher' from the outside left to the middle; ; semi cloudy for windward/mauka.

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 84°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 84°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 84°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph S

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 81°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph N

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 80°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph NE

North

Friday
11/21
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding
3' 13 sec; clear, fair side offshore
Saturday
11/22
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
4' 11 sec
Sunday
11/23
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Rising
8' 15 sec 2pm
Monday
11/24
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Holding
8' 14-12 sec
Tuesday
11/25
NW
Haw: 5-7 occ +
Face: 8-12 occ +
Holding

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West

Friday
11/21
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

Saturday
11/22
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Sunday
11/23
NW
Haw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+
Rising

Monday
11/24
NW
Haw: 3-6+
Face: 5-10+
Holding

Tuesday
11/25
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Holding

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South

Friday
11/21
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping
1' 14 sec; offshore, clear
Saturday
11/22
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Dropping

Sunday
11/23
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping
.5' 14 sec
Monday
11/24
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
0.7' 14 sec
Tuesday
11/25
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
1' 14 sec
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east

Friday
11/21
E-NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping
cloudy, bumpy
Saturday
11/22
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Sunday
11/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Monday
11/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Tuesday
11/25
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

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Current Swells:

Friday   11/21
Primary: Holding  NW  2-3+
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  1-3+'
Third: Holding  S-SW  0-1 occ 2'
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Marine Warnings:

Friday   11/21
small craft adv for channels
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Sailing Report:

Friday   11/21
good with 10-25 mph ENE trades
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Diving Report:

Friday   11/21
Good for south and west, fair/good for North shore dives and poor/fair for east dives

Oahu

SUNSET
Friday   11/21
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
good

ROCKY POINT
Friday   11/21
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Pipeline
Friday   11/21
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

HALEIWA
Friday   11/21
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

MAKAHA
Friday   11/21
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades light-moderate
smooth

ALA MOANA
Friday   11/21
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Waikiki
Friday   11/21
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate
smooth

Diamond Head
Friday   11/21
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Sandy Beach
Friday   11/21
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Makapuu
Friday   11/21
E-NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy
fun

Maui

Hookipa
Friday   11/21
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Honolua
Friday   11/21
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fairly clean

Kihei
Friday   11/21
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-strong
sailin' and kitin'

Hana
Friday   11/21
E-NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Lahaina
Friday   11/21
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Friday   11/21
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Majors
Friday   11/21
NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Poipu
Friday   11/21
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Kapaa
Friday   11/21
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Friday   11/21
ENE+N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kohala
Friday   11/21
N
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Friday   11/21
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate
smooth

Hilo
Friday   11/21
E-NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kau
Friday   11/21
SSE+SSW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Weather

Nov 21, 2014 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Moderate trade winds will diminish into the weekend. Most showers will be limited to windward slopes, especially over the Big Island. A front will bring modest rain and stronger, northerly winds to most of the state from Sunday night into Tuesday. The winds then will weaken and become northeasterly again as the cool and dry air mass moistens gradually into Friday.

Discussion
Observations around the main Hawaiian islands still reported moderate to locally strong trade winds blowing, and a timely satellite scatterometer pass supported a small craft advisory around Maui and Hawaii counties. The fairly solid ridge prevailing aloft to the northwest through north expanded over the state overnight, lowering and strengthening the inversion. Together with land breezes, this development largely kept offshore the moderately active showers visible just offshore, especially to the southeast of the Big Island. Further north, cloud cover upwind shifted to a clearly more stable form, and satellite estimates of precipitable water showed solidly below-average precipitable water in the air mass about to move across the state.

Thus, pops have been reduced for all areas during the first period. Under these conditions, afternoon convection will be hard pressed to produce any thunder today, so no mention has been added. However, the mainly stable cloud cover should be at least as widespread as forecast earlier.

By Saturday, guidance still largely agreed that a deepening long-wave trough aloft will displace the mid-level ridge toward the northeast, supporting the approach at the surface of the front currently crossing 30°N near 170°W. As the surface ridge retreats to the southeast ahead of the front, the trade winds will diminish locally, becoming southeasterly in places by Sunday.

The front itself should reach Kauai by Sunday night, but recent solutions predicted the supporting mid-level trough to focus mainly to the east of the state. Thus, most development along the front should remain northeast of the islands, leaving only a fairly shallow boundary to move down the state from Sunday night into Tuesday. Some rain will accompany the front, mainly over the smaller islands. The Big Island more likely will experience a less organized increase in showers from the frontal remnants moving ashore on Tuesday and Wednesday. Moderate to strong northerly winds in the cooler and drier air mass behind the front may be more significant than the front itself.

From Wednesday into the latter half of the week, the subtropical ridge will reestablish itself north of the state gradually, returning the winds to a more familiar northeasterly direction, though wind speeds will drop off significantly until the ridge shifts far enough north. The cool and dry air mass will modify in place, allowing windward showers to increase with time again.

Marine
Wind speeds are expected to remain above the threshold for a small craft advisory /sca/ around Maui and Hawaii counties into tonight. After a brief lull.speeds likely will increase behind the front from Sunday into Monday, probably requiring an SCA again around much of the state.

Northwest swells will continue to produce modest surf through Saturday night. A slightly larger swell is expected to arrive by Sunday, possibly building surf to near the advisory level along north-facing and west-facing shores of the smaller islands through Monday. This swell also may contribute to the need for an SCA over the coastal waters.

Surf from trade-wind waves along east-facing shores should decline as the trade winds diminish.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small craft advisory until midnight HST tonight for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.









Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

11/18/14 Tuesday
NPAC
The Jet Stream wind current 30,000’ up has a zonal trough off Japan that also tracks quickly east all week. This steers storms fast from west to east as the Jet extends all the way to the west coast. By Saturday there’s a split in the Jet near the dateline with more energy staring off Japan again as the Jet drops in latitude. So we should be looking a little better for the long haul.
Recent- Currently: We have a peaking 8-10’ NNW this afternoon with brisk side shore NE trades. This swell comes from 2 fetches. One was up near the Aleutians last Thur-Friday and though the winds were stronger the Low was more distant than the 2nd source which really kicked up the surf due to close proximity of under 1000 miles and 20’ seas Saturday. It’ll drop fast Tuesday as close-shorter period events often do.
Next: A couple of storms close together race east in the zonal Jet this past weekend. Most the swell is off to our NE but we’ll still get some 2-4+ NW waves Wed. @ 14 seconds.

Next: Storm #2 spawned Sunday with up to 20’ seas but stayed further away. Watch for 3-5+’ NW surf Thursday.

Next: A storm forms near the date racing east building by Thursday to our North. We miss most its power but WW3 projects 7’ swell @ 15 sec Sunday which would refract/shoal on country reefs up 8’ minimum. I believe it’s being overcalled. So go with 50/50 for now.

Next: Friday another fast moving Low pressure area is 1500 miles to our N but the area of storminess is broad. We should see energy added to the prior episode holding waves in the 5-8’ range Monday.

Next: Another Low producing 20’ seas forms west of the dateline this weekend and with a much better SE track moving our way Sat-Sunday. If all goes well it could keep the surf 6-8’ with 14 seconds Tuesday.

Last: yet another eastbound Low is nearing and crossing the dateline Monday the 24th. WW3 hints of 6’ 15 seconds Friday which seems delayed by a day or two. Long range forecasts are subject to greater changes.


SPAC:
The Jet : We’re still getting semi lucky with background swells well past mid Nov. Currently, the winds are broken with no potential for sea surface winds. But by Wed. we get a bend NNE tho’ it hugs NZL’s west coast before heading right over the Islands. We go quite for about 3-4 days. Then day 7 we get a bit of troughing on the East coast of NZL. So what we see happening are plenty 2’ swells from the SW to SSW when it could be flat to one.

Recent-current: tiny tiny the past several days but buoys popped Monday with 1’ 15 seconds on the Taz fetch from last Tuesday the 11th. Surf picked up Monday and will be very inconsistently 2’ for top zones into Thursday. Fiji cranked on this storm but for us there’s too many obstacles in the way (Fiji, Samoa and hey, even NZL).

Next: Another Taz Low Tuesday the 18th slams into NZL and it’s not likely more than thigh surf @ 15 sec will be felt locally Thursday the 25th.

Last: Friday the 21st shows a Low moving East under the southern Tip of NZL. This is so far out its tough to claim but we’ll go ahead with a 2’ SSW Saturday the 29th.

Windward side: Recently we’ve had Small back ground 1-2’ East swell with some 2’ N mixing in from recent country swells. Surf will ramping up Wednesday thanks to the High NNE of us strengthening for a day with winds up to 30mph. Surf should hit 2-3’ and subside into this weekend. The Jet drops this weekend allowing storms to get closer and cut trades down and therefore windswell will be at a minimum.

Tropics: No activity in the Tropics.






FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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