LeahDawson RustyMillere iCELAND Tatiana.rnd2e Local-swell-tracker.banner2 KirraFeb2015 Marcia Makuakakai Rothman (HAW) Dusty Payne Kirra2015

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Exclusive Obs: 640am Wednesday March 4, powered by: Surfer, the Bar: Talk Story with Rusty Miller tonight

Cold and cloudy with moderate to fresh NE'erlies. Small craft advsys.

The NS see's the small NNW fade and the WNW rise. It's super clean again for the Leeward side. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping on the small 12 second NNW and rising on the 15 sec WNW (NW buoy 275 miles NW: 3' 15 sec. Waimea 1' 16 sec). Currently, it's 2-3' at Sunset pt, while Pipe is 1-2' (OTW, Backdoor bigger). Chuns is up to 3'. Laniakea is up to 3'. The WNW should reach near 4' afternoon. NE trades ramped up again, so it's side off & bumpy; cloudy.
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West:

Down and dropping on the NNW and holding the SSW at 0-1-2' and some 3' sets later from the WNW. Side offshore NE'erlies; cloudy.
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Town:

Holding on a small 14 second SSE; surf is super clean at 0-1-2' (even chest high every 1/2 hour at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area is 0-2'. Clean and offshore at dawn today and ccoudy.
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Diamond Head:

Holding on the small SSE at 1-2.5' maybe off/on head high on the take offs & decently clean offshore and cloudy (see SNN Cam).
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Sandy's:

Holding on the E-NE swell and the SSE at 1-2 occ 3' out over the reefs and in the shorebreak with NNE winds and straight offshore; cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding from E-NE trade and N angle at 2-3' occ 4 on the left to the middle with 3' surf on the right too; choppy with dry clouds.

Weather

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 80°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph NNE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
69°F
max: 81°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
28mph NE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
69°F
max: 79°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
28mph NE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
66°F
max: 78°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NNE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
67°F
max: 78°F

Mostly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NNE

NE
15-30

NE
10-25

NE
10-20+

NE
10-20

NE
10-20

North

Thursday
03/05
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping
3' 14 sec
Friday
03/06
N-NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
3' 12 sec
Saturday
03/07
NW+NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
3' 15 sec
Sunday
03/08
NNW+NNE
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Rising
NNW 7' 12 sec
Monday
03/09
NNW+NNE
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Holding
NNW 9' 13 sec
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West

Thursday
03/05
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping

Friday
03/06
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Saturday
03/07
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

Sunday
03/08
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Rising

Monday
03/09
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Rising

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South

Thursday
03/05
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
1' 14 SSW
Friday
03/06
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Saturday
03/07
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Sunday
03/08
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Monday
03/09
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising
1' 124 sec iffy
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east

Thursday
03/05
NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
9' 9 sec
Friday
03/06
NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping
8' 8 sec
Saturday
03/07
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Sunday
03/08
ENE+NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

Monday
03/09
ENE+NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

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Current Swells:

Thursday   03/05
Primary: Holding  WNW+NNW  2-3'
Secondary: Holding  ENE+N  2-4'
Third: Holding  SSE+SSW  1-2'
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Marine Warnings:

Thursday   03/05
Small craft advsry from gusty NE trades
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Sailing Report:

Thursday   03/05
Good with 15-25+ NE'eries
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Diving Report:

Thursday   03/05
Fair-Good for south and west; poor for east & poor to fair for north shores

Oahu

SUNSET
Thursday   03/05
WNW+NNW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

ROCKY POINT
Thursday   03/05
WNW+NNW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

Pipeline
Thursday   03/05
WNW+NNW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

HALEIWA
Thursday   03/05
WNW+NNW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair

MAKAHA
Thursday   03/05
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
good

ALA MOANA
Thursday   03/05
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Waikiki
Thursday   03/05
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Diamond Head
Thursday   03/05
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Sandy Beach
Thursday   03/05
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Makapuu
Thursday   03/05
ENE+N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Thursday   03/05
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Honolua
Thursday   03/05
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Kihei
Thursday   03/05
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades moderate-fresh
mild choppiness

Hana
Thursday   03/05
ENE+N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate-fresh
rough

Lahaina
Thursday   03/05
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades light-moderate
good

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Mar 04, 2015 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis
A trough aloft will produce heavy rain through tonight on Maui and the Big Island of Hawaii. Snow and strong winds will likely affect the high elevations on the Big Island. The trough will also bring overcast clouds to all the islands. A strong surface high northwest of the area will keep trade winds blowing, bringing scattered showers to windward areas from Molokai to Kauai. The weather will turn drier on Thursday, but that may be temporary. The trough aloft will persist through next week, so more periods of stormy weather are possible.

Discussion
A strong surface high about 1500 miles northwest is producing moderate to strong trade winds across the islands. A persistent trough aloft continues to make the atmosphere unstable, but so far it has not been unstable enough to produce any thunderstorms over the islands. As of 300 am the closest thunderstorms are about 100 miles southeast of the Big Island. The chance of thunderstorms is usually greatest over water at night and over land during the day so the threat will likely shift after sunrise. Trade-wind weather will persist over the smaller islands with scattered showers mainly over windward areas. Thick layered clouds will continue to blanket the skies over all the islands.

A broad and deep trough aloft lies north of the area. A short-wave trough within the larger trough is approaching the islands from the northwest. As the trough gets closer today, the atmosphere will become more unstable and more moisture will spread over the islands from the southeast. The greatest threat for heavy precipitation will be tonight on the windward sides of Maui and the Big Island. The trough aloft will also likely produce snow over the high elevations on the Big Island. The rain and snow will subside tomorrow as the short-wave moves off to the northeast.

The large-scale trough aloft will persist north of the islands through next week. More periods of heavy precipitation are possible as long as this trough remains. The most active periods will come as short wave troughs within the larger trough move over the islands from the northwest. The global models are in good agreement on the short wave affecting the islands today but they differ on the timing and strength of subsequent short waves.

Aviation
Airmet tango is in effect for high level turbulence over the area due to the trough aloft. The turbulence is likely to continue through today. Airmet tango also has low level turbulence in the lee of the islands due to the strong trade winds. Airmet sierra is in effect for mtn obsc over windward areas from the Big Island to Molokai. The possibility of light icing will be mentioned in airmet zulu. Vfr conditions will prevail from Lanai to Kauai but there may be isolated MVFR ceilings over windward areas.

Marine
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms over the coastal waters around the Big Island and Maui through tonight. A small craft advisory is in effect for strong trade winds and rough seas. Rough surf will build along east facing shores, and this surf could require a high surf advisory later in the week. Otherwise, surf is expected to remain below the advisory thresholds through the week. A north swell arriving Sunday may produce advisory level surf along the north facing shores.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small craft advisory for the Kauai, kaiwi, Molokai and Alenuihaha channels, waters west of Kauai, Maalaea Bay and waters south of the Big Island for strong northeast trade winds and rough seas.

Flash flood watch through late tonight for Maui and the Big Island of Hawaii.

Winter storm warning through late tonight for the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.





Broken clouds are clouds which cover between 6/10 and 9/10 of the sky while scattered clouds is a sky condition when between 1/10 and 5/10 of clouds are covered.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture
2/28/15
NPAC
The Jet stream is not looking anything like earlier this month. In fact, there are 2 high pressure zones, one to our NE moving south and one to our NW moving SE. The later is blocking the Jet and thus the Lows are staying far way. Say good bye for now to the long pattern of big waves from nearby big storms cutting off the trades. All the way through the 7 day forecast highs dominate and even send the Jet flow above the Aleutians. The Jet trough gets deeper toward next weekend to our East which only helps in bringing weather not NW waves.
Recent/Current: The NW shores have gone from extreme WNW swells from close Lows and light konas to N swells and cold NE trades, total opposites. This weekend its 3’ side-shores and cold.
Next: A compact 35-45kt storm spawned just our side of the dateline Friday and moved SE toward HI with a captured fetch (adjacent winds ‘follow’ the Lows center aiming at its target). The nose reaches to about 800 miles to our NNW Saturday thus less open ocean swell decay time. We’ll go ahead and claim solid Advsry level 6-8’ NNW surf Monday. This episode will drop fast to 5’ Tuesday plus NE side off shores will not be optimal.
Next: A Low formed off the Kuirls Friday and is moving ENE with a broad apparent fetch in the 310-330 band. The winds don’t get under 1800 miles away so plenty swell decay will reduce this WNW to 3-5’ Wednesday-Thursday. Periods will be 13-15 seconds. Side off shores will persist.
Last: We may see a small 4’ N to NNE swell fill Sunday the 8th from a small Low to our NNE Friday. The storm builds and broadens into Sunday so we may see some extra size Monday of 4-6’ from the N at 12 seconds.

SPAC:
Not looking good for surface low enhancement until this Friday when a fat deep trough points up into the Taz. Models say ‘no swell production’ from this forecast as the Low stays too zonal and breaks up.
Recent/Current: we’ve had plenty small but fun/doable ‘background’ SSE to SSW over the past week or two; add in the West wraps and Town side has been above seasonal. Plus, the entire Leeward side likes the NE tilt to the trade pattern we’re now in.
Next: A big Low 1000 miles South of Tahiti tracked east beyond our optimal window by Tuesday the 24th. But it was a powerful storm and should send up some 18 sec forerunners Monday with slowly building inconsistent SSE surf of 3’ by late in the day peaking Tuesday-Wednesday. Some reefs like Tennis Courts and Kaisers could see some sets a foot overhead. Other SSW sucking spots will hit shoulder high.
Next: a small chance of small 2’ SSW surf at 14 seconds could fill late Thursday the 5th from a marginal east bond Low far to the SE of NZ end of Feb.
Long ranger fantasy: Tons of storminess moves east from under Australia into the Taz mid week Wednesday but the fetch is not right. WW3 is getting excited tho’ and hinting of some 18 sec forerunners around Wed the 11th with 3’ SSW surf Thur-Saturday the 12-14th. We need to get closer to claim.
Windward: The Low that started off Japan and gave us our Wester ended up near to HI and produced 20-30kt winds on her NW side allowing for some isolated 1-3’ N wind swell this past week. In addition, we had some solid 3’ East swell produced by the pressure gradient between the persistent NE High and the Trough to our ENE. All fades from Sunday from these 2 sources. However, thanks to the fresh NE trades we’ll add back some 1-3’ NE surf into Monday and ‘maybe’ even Tuesday.

















FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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