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Exclusive Obs: 640am Tuesday March 31, powered by: Fresh Cafe

Calm to Light trade flow veering SE then onshore seabreezes with fairly clear skies first half then cloud build up later. Minus Low tide 830a

North shore has fading small NW with town also easing on the SSE but sees a new tiny SW. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping on the NW. NW buoy (275 miles away) is 4' 12 sec. Surf is 2-4' at Sunset with clean light E trades but veering SE; Pipe/OTW up to 1-2-3' and more NW than WNW today; smooth but a bit bouncy, fickle but good form; Rocky's area is 2-3+'; Chuns 2-3' mostly and its good but some morning sickness; fairly clear.
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West:

Down and dropping at Makaha on the NW at mostly (some SSE/SSW) at 1- 2 occ soft 3'; cleanest early (mush later) and cloudy.
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Town:

Down and Holding on the SSE/SSW; surf is clean offshores at 1-2.5' or chest highs at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area 1-2.5' & fairly clear.
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Diamond Head:

Down and holding on the SSE + some SSW at 2-3' maybe plus (1' overhead on the drops), super smooth with low tide; fairly clear for now.
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Sandy's:

Down and holding on the 13 second SSE and some wind swell at 1-2-3' sets from Half and Full Pt. and Gas Chambers is hollow; fairly cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and Holding on the E-NE trade swell at 1-2' maybe 2.5' or chest high from the left to the middle with 2' at Keikis and nice lines and smooth.

Weather

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 85°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph ENE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 86°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 87°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 88°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 88°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

E-SE
5-15
veering SE; onshore seabreeze pattern
E-NE
10-20

E-NE
10-20

Light/Var
5-10

Light/Var
5-10
veering NE

North

Tuesday
03/31
NW
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
Dropping
4' 12 sec; clean, partly clear; seabreeze coming
Wednesday
04/01
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Thursday
04/02
NW
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
Rising
3' 12 sec
Friday
04/03
NW+NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping

Saturday
04/04
NW+NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

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West

Tuesday
03/31
NW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Dropping
+ SSE; cloudy, clean then mushy
Wednesday
04/01
NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Thursday
04/02
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Friday
04/03
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Saturday
04/04
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

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South

Tuesday
03/31
SSW+SSE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding
2.5' 13 sec; clear, clean then mushy
Wednesday
04/01
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Thursday
04/02
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Friday
04/03
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising

Saturday
04/04
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising

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east

Tuesday
03/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping
clean, semi clear
Wednesday
04/01
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Thursday
04/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Friday
04/03
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Saturday
04/04
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Tuesday   03/31
Primary: Dropping  NW  2-4' surf ,13 sec
Secondary: Dropping  SSE+SSW  2.5' at 13 sec
Third: Holding  E-NE  2.5' surf at 8 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   03/31
none
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   03/31
Fickle with veering E to SE to seabreezes
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   03/31
Fair to Good for South and West and East; good for deep North shores

Oahu

SUNSET
Tuesday   03/31
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Calm to seabreezes
clean

ROCKY POINT
Tuesday   03/31
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Calm to seabreezes
clean

Pipeline
Tuesday   03/31
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Calm to seabreezes
clean

HALEIWA
Tuesday   03/31
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

MAKAHA
Tuesday   03/31
NW SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

ALA MOANA
Tuesday   03/31
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

Waikiki
Tuesday   03/31
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to seabreezes
smooth am...mushy pm

Diamond Head
Tuesday   03/31
SSE+SSW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Calm to seabreezes
smooth

Sandy Beach
Tuesday   03/31
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Calm to seabreezes
good

Makapuu
Tuesday   03/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Calm to seabreezes
smooth

Maui

Hookipa
Tuesday   03/31
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Calm to trades
smooth

Honolua
Tuesday   03/31
NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Calm to trades
good

Kihei
Tuesday   03/31
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Calm to trades
diving , paddling and fishin'

Hana
Tuesday   03/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to trades
good

Lahaina
Tuesday   03/31
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Calm to trades
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Tuesday   03/31
NW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Calm to seabreezes
good

Majors
Tuesday   03/31
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to seabreezes
clean

Poipu
Tuesday   03/31
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to seabreezes
smooth

Kapaa
Tuesday   03/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to seabreezes
semi-clean

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Tuesday   03/31
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to trades
semi-clean

Kohala
Tuesday   03/31
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Calm to trades
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Tuesday   03/31
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Calm to trades
clean

Hilo
Tuesday   03/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to trades
smooth

Kau
Tuesday   03/31
S-SE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Calm to trades
good

Weather

Mar 29, 2015 5:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Trade winds will increase today through Monday, bringing a slight increase in windward showers, mainly on Kauai and Oahu. A couple of upper level disturbances passing north of the islands will result in the weakening of trade winds again on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, and may briefly enhance showers over the state.

Discussion
Stronger trade winds are staging a comeback early this morning, as indicated by both radar data as well as low cloud movements. Quite a bit of low level moisture are present in the island vicinity early this morning, with radar data showing an area of rain clouds just northeast of Oahu at time. Much of these showers will affect the windward areas under the increasing trade winds. Early morning soundings still depict a rather dry air mass in the island vicinity, though Lihue sounding has become a tad more unstable compared to Saturday afternoon. Look for passing low clouds and showers to affect mainly windward and mountain areas today, while lee areas should experience mostly fair weather.

Trade winds will be the strongest tonight and Monday over the islands, as a surface high pressure passes east far north of the state. Trade wind weather will continue Monday, with passing low clouds and showers affecting mainly windward areas.

A progressive mid-level short wave trough is forecast to pass the state on Tuesday. Its present will induce the development of a surface trough in the island vicinity. As the surface trough develops, winds will once again weaken across the islands. In fact, winds may become light and variable enough allowing land and sea breezes to develop. Forecast models indicate the atmosphere will become only slightly unstable due to this short wave. But then deeper convection can develop over the islands under the converging sea breezes in the afternoon, bringing possible locally heavier showers. This mid-level trough will track swiftly east Wednesday, with stronger trade winds returning to the state briefly.

Another mid-level short wave trough is expected to pass over the islands Thursday through Friday as indicated by the forecast models. Even though this next disturbance is forecast to be a weak feature, another surface trough is expected to develop in the island vicinity, resulting in winds becoming light across the area again. Convective weather with land and sea breezes are expected Thursday through Saturday. Furthermore, forecast models also hint the atmosphere in the island vicinity may become more unstable. Showers will therefore be enhanced. Stronger trade winds may return to the area toward early next week, though that is subject to change due to high variations between model runs.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture
3/13/15
NPAC
The Jet stream looks consolidated and zonal (west to east) from off Japan with high 200kt pockets to our NW. The nose of the Jet points down on the longitudes near Hawaii Nei leading to some weather and brisk NE winds. There’s been a large eddy in the Jet level to out NE allowing for ongoing Lows to spin off within it like a conveyor belt. Thus, we see our N swell with this latest being the biggest by far. The large upper air currents will weaken lots by midweek reducing the size probabilities of storms and thus swell.
Recent/Current: Way above seasonal average today with surf up to 18’ on the outer reefs but victory at sea. The Bay is cracking 10-15’ in the bowl but terrible conditions with only solo contenders. This will prevail for this episode thnks to the NNE winds.
Source: Tuesday’s charts showed a SE tracking Low with a 1-2 punch. Seas were over 25’ and by Thursday winds increased as the system neared; left over winds under 300 miles away Friday but not before pushing down some upgraded 10-18’ NNW surf with 15 seconds Friday the 13th… our lucky day. Saturday should still see some 12’ surf from a more northerly angle and winds are expected to be strong NE side onshore.
Next: Thnks to the zonal jet, our storms are moving east fast with no major fetches for us next week. There are a few to keep it ride-able. The first one is from a generic gale zone to our NNW this weekend which may send down some 3-5’ NW surf filling later Tuesday the 17th with light winds too and lasting into Wednesday!
Next: More weak winds off to our NW Tuesday may send down smaller 11 sec NW surf of 2-4’ Friday the 20th and keep it fun all weekend.
Next: A better shot spawns Wed the 18th of the Kurils and we get a partially captured fetch for less than a day as the Low tries for 22’ seas as it crosses the dateline Friday the 20th …Forerunners should hit Sunday the 22nd and the main thrust will be Monday with 5-7’ surf at 14 seconds. It’ll drop fast Tuesday onward.
Last: long ranger GFS output calls for a small 4-6’ NW the 28th but let’s wait and see.
SPAC:
Jetstream has 2 branches with the North having the highest winds and even points NNE this weekend from just under Tahiti.
Recent/Current: We have 2 sources for our small SW swells. A broad fetch in the Taz Thursday March 5th had models claiming a rise Thursday the 12th at 15 seconds. It’ll be a slow rise and inconsistent and only some spots reaching chest high. By Friday the SW was more filled in and esp by Saturday…this is from the highest 50kt phase of the storm in the Taz. Fiji was cranking 8-12’ Monday Tuesday. We’re hoping for a few 3’ sets Friday-Saturday the 13-14th. The other source is Cat 4 Cyclone Pam which is tearing through Vanuatu just west of Fiji with 155kts. http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/cyclone-pam-vanuatu-south-pacific
Pam tracked SSE slowly over 2400 miles away earlier this week and will weaken lots by the time she nears NZ. As for as surf for us the fetch on her west flank was always short but angular spreading could add some energy up to chest high into Tuesday.
Next: Another weaker Low in below the Taz could keep 2’ SW surf coming as background energy into the wkend of the 21st.
Last but not least: Pam ends up spinning off NZ most of the upcoming week as she merges with another system and they occlude Wednesday, stalling and broadening. This should lead to a long lasting above average SSW swell of 15 seconds Monday-Thursday 23-26th.
Windward: It’s all about the 2-4’ N swell wrapping in with the gusty NE winds but by Sunday winds, waves and weather mellow out. Then models reramp the Trades Thursday the 19th thus a fairly typical uptick to 3’…

















FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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