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645 OBS Saturday 12/10/16 Powered by Surfer, the Bar

Overcast with isolated showers. Calm to light variables with a S flow shifting to seabreezes by mid-day.

NNW rises, SSW and E hold: Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF 7a, 12p, 3p, 5p trend/recap.

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North Shore:

Up and rising on a small 12 sec NNW. Surf is waist to chest-high with an occ. head-high set for top reefs. Sunset Pt 1-2' occ.+, Rocky's 1-2', Pipe/OTW 1-1.5', Chuns 1-2.5' (crowded), Laniakea 1-2.5' and Ali'i Beach Park 1-2'; Clean and calm with grey skies.
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West:

Holding on the new NNW and background SSW. Makaha is 0-2' and glassy with top sets breaking just beyond the reef; Smooth early with light onshore and clouds.
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Town:

Holding on the tiny 7-10 sec SSW. Surf remains in the 0-1' range with long waits between sets for top reefs from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls, Piles to Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens are 0-1' and barely breaking. Clean early with calm to light onshore and grey skies.
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Diamond Head:

Holding on the mix of background SSW+SSE. Surf is 0-1' with minimal energy and extremely inconsistent; fairly clean with slight bump from calm to light sea breezes and poor form from Lighthouse to Right hands and Cliffs; dark clouds.
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Sandy's:

Holding on the 9 sec E trade swell and tiny S energy. Surf is mostly 1-2' and fairly consistent with fun waist-high sets; Clean early with light variables from Full Pt - 1/2 point area thru Pipe-little's and Middle Peaks-into Chambers is 1-2' with fun closeout shore-break; clouds..
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on the 9 sec trade swell. Surf is 1-2' with consistent waist to chest-high sets breaking on the inside sandbar. Keiki's is in the 0-1.5' range with small drops and fun rides; smooth early and overcast.

Weather

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph SSW

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
3mph WNW

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 84°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph N

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 84°F

Clear

Wind:
13mph NNE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 85°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph NE

Range:
5-10mph Light/Var
south flow to seabrz
Range:
5-15+mph Light/Var
SW flow later + seabrz mix
Range:
5-10mph N

Range:
5-10mph N

Range:
5-7mph NE

North

Saturday
12/10
N-NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
3' 12 sec; smooth, cloudy
Sunday
12/11
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising
+ North
Monday
12/12
W-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising
4' 15 sec
Tuesday
12/13
W-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Holding
4.5' 14 sec
Wednesday
12/14
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping
3' 11 sec + New 5' 11 sec NNE
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West

Saturday
12/10
N-NW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Rising
Glassy, cloudy
Sunday
12/11
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

Monday
12/12
W-NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising

Tuesday
12/13
W-NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising

Wednesday
12/14
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

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South

Saturday
12/10
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding
1' 10 sec; clean, clouds
Sunday
12/11
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Monday
12/12
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Tuesday
12/13
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Wednesday
12/14
SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding
15s background
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east

Saturday
12/10
E-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding
2' 9 sec; smooth, overcast
Sunday
12/11
E-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Monday
12/12
E-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Tuesday
12/13
E-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Wednesday
12/14
E-NE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Saturday   12/10
Primary: Dropping  N-NW  1-3' surf at 12 sec
Secondary: Dropping Slowly  E  1-2' surf at 8 sec
Third: Holding  S-SW  0-1.5' surf at 10 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Saturday   12/10
None except a small surf adv
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Sailing Report:

Saturday   12/10
Poor early for all shores with light Variable to light onshore
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Diving Report:

Saturday   12/10
Dark clouds, no sunshine; Stay out of any brown water run off; fair for deeper North, fair-good for West, fair-good for South and fair-good for select East dives

Oahu

SUNSET
Saturday   12/10
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Variables
good

ROCKY POINT
Saturday   12/10
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Variables
smooth

Pipeline
Saturday   12/10
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Calm to seabreezes
glassy

HALEIWA
Saturday   12/10
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Variables
smooth

MAKAHA
Saturday   12/10
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Variables to sea-breezes
smooth

ALA MOANA
Saturday   12/10
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Variables
smooth am...mushy pm

Waikiki
Saturday   12/10
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Calm
clean

Diamond Head
Saturday   12/10
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Variables
smooth

Sandy Beach
Saturday   12/10
COMBO
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Variables
smooth

Makapuu
Saturday   12/10
COMBO
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Variables
good

Maui

Hookipa
Saturday   12/10
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Variables
good

Honolua
Saturday   12/10
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Variables
glassy

Kihei
Saturday   12/10
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Variables
glassy

Hana
Saturday   12/10
E+N
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Variables
good

Lahaina
Saturday   12/10
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Variables
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Saturday   12/10
NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Calm to light
smooth

Majors
Saturday   12/10
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Winds Fickle
good

Poipu
Saturday   12/10
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Calm to light
smooth

Kapaa
Saturday   12/10
COMBO
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Variables
smooth

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Saturday   12/10
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Calm to light
smooth

Kohala
Saturday   12/10
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Variables
good

Kona
Saturday   12/10
S-SW
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
Calm to light
smooth

Hilo
Saturday   12/10
COMBO
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Variables
smooth

Kau
Saturday   12/10
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Variables
smooth am...mushy pm

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

BIG PICTURE Saturday 12.3.16

NPAC
The Jet has split to our NNW but luckily a deeper trough Jet shaped up off Japan again. To our NE over 1500 miles sits a 1034 High which has until today had our trades ramped up to Gales off and on. Thus the large trade swells for days, even weeks on end. By Sunday the Jet is super weak for a couple days hinting of a short break in swell production after the Dec 7-9th episode (below). By Tuesday she’s trying to come our way of Japan but ends up having some trouble extending and consolidating which allows for the formation of Lows and a closer track toward Hawaii. By Sat Dec 10th it looks like we might get more outta this large upper air current flowing west to east about 30,000 feet up.

Today it went off. Original WW3 estimates pegged this event near warnings; tho’ we did see some 10’ local scale WNW-NW sets at sunset beach for the Vans World Cup. This will fade from the NW at 14 sec Saturday in the 4-7’ range (~12’ faces or 2.5X overhead). It’ll be smaller later in the day as they finish day 3. This swell came from some 55-65kt winds in a wide fetch but it sent plenty to our NE. Seas hit near 30’ but 2000 miles off so lotsa swell decay (about 50% per 1000 miles) and so it was to be….7-8’ swell at 16 sec translating into 12-18’ wave faces centered on 315. The other feature besides being the best direction for Sunset were the East winds blowing offshore, brisk at times for sure. Love those rooster tails on the west bowl.

#1 Friday a large storm tries to come off Japan/Kurils but much of the Low stays land bound centered in the Sea of Japan. A decent fetch with weaker winds points our way by Saturday the 3rd as the system tracked east. I thought models were running hot on this last weekend as they’re calling for 10’ swell at 14 sec Thursday Dec 8th. Sure enough, it now looks like a 5’ NW swell at 15 sec for Wednesday or 5-7’ surf. Either way it will certainly get heats out at Pipe day 1 of the holding period Dec 8-20th.

#2 We have some strange stuff going on thru mid week with Japan storms tracking North and one off to our NE tracking N as well. Right now models hint of a 4’ 15 sec NW Sunday the 11th or 4-6’ surf. I’d give it 65%.

#3 By Friday Dec 9th we have 2 Lows spawned, one off the Kurils that morphed from the prior storm and one 1200 miles NE. Models may be running hot on this too for the 12th. But GFS seems sure it still could happen. Just too early for confidence.

#4 GFS (Global Forecast System) hinted just a day ago that a large Low near the Aleutians Tuesday the 13th could deliver warning level NW. I figured WW3 was way overcalling it. Often the further out you go this occurs. I pegged a 35% chance yesterday and zero chance today. Indeed, the Pipe Masters will not likely get classic waves this year. The best surf will be from the 7th till the 8th or days and after that it’s a marginal trend at best. Let’s hope and pray for a pattern change.

SPAC

The Jet was semi decent for this late in the season but now it is weak and broken. So, there’s little chance of swell generation in the next 7 days. We had one week old low on the charts hugging NZL (below) and thus the SW this week.
Indeed the past couple weeks we’ve had tiny back ground Taz swells or SW angles mixing with SE Trade wrap. It’s been pretty bad but rideable. Last, Sunday we saw another pulse of 16 sec SW getting us up to chest high but the very East Trades has made it chunky side shores.
Then this past week thanks to the above Taz source tracked east over the south Island of NZL getting to just off the east coast Monday the 21st Thus, we got more typical SSW energy Monday the 28th thru Wednesday the 30th. Some 1-2.5’(waist-chest) maybe 3’ at top spots/sets as buoys read 1.5’ swell at 15 sec.
Another low just SE of NZL rolls ENE Tuesday-Thursday added to the event and keeping surf in the same zone of up to shoulder high into Friday. It tries to hold but slowly fades over the weekend.
#1 A Taz Storm spawned Thursday the 24th into Saturday. WW3 says 1’ 15 sec Dec 1st only. This would mean 2’ surf. Not bad for December.

#2 The storm above is expected to just breach the east coast of NZL Monday the 27th Add a week and presto: more of the same small waist to chest SSW at 15 sec around Monday Dec 4th declining from Thursday. After this say goodbye for 2 weeks (Wed Dec7-21st). If anything pops we’ll print.

Trade Swell
It’s been solid 4’ all week (the past 2) with some higher sets off and on and it’s going to fade this weekend. This is due to the High N to NE tracking east. But prior the upstream trades have been up to 800 miles long and thus the longer 9-10 sec windswell. This is why even tho’ Trades backed down Friday we still had 4’ at Makapu’u. Watch for small windwaves for awhile or at least till next weekend of the 10th.

The Tropics
So far they’re nothing forecasted on Hawaii for the next week or so.


Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4+ local) 15 Feet (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)

Surfer's Wall Photos

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