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Exclusive Obs: 7am update Friday Jan 30, 2015 powered by Hanks Tax 853-1170.

Cloudy with light North winds. Post Front passage and dissipating.

High Surf Advsry in advance of a new NW which is rising later & will peak at 12+ Saturday.
Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping on the 13 sec NW: NW buoy is 10' 11 sec. on the new NW. Waimea is 4' 13 sec. Sunset is 2-4' and Pipe is 2-3' and everywhere is onshore N winds and lame; cloudy.
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West:

Down and dropping on the NW at 1-2+' mostly and smooth offshore; cloudy.
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Town:

Down and Holding tiny on the generic background S at 0-1.5' with glassy to offshore N winds at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area at 0-1.5'. Cloudy.
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Diamond Head:

Down and Holding on the background South at 0-1.5' with smooth offshores; cloudy (see SNN Cam).
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Sandy's:

Down and Holding on a combo swell with N and S at 0-1.5' right near shore and out at the Points with light N winds and smooth. Cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on an East and N swell at a smooth 0-1-2' sets off and on and bumpy onshores. Cloudy.

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
69°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
3mph NE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 83°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph NE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 82°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph NE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 83°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph SSE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 85°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph WSW

N
5-10

NE
10-20

NE
5-15
veering variable
SW
5-10
New front and Konas again
W
5-10
veering round compass

North

Friday
01/30
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping
4' 13 sec Waimea; cloudy, onshore
Saturday
01/31
NW
Haw: 10-12+
Face: 15-20+
Rising Early
11' 14 sec; some near 15' 2nd reefs
Sunday
02/01
NW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Dropping
11' 14 sec
Monday
02/02
NW
Haw: 5-7
Face: 8-12
Dropping
8' 12 sec
Tuesday
02/03
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising Later
6' 14 sec 8pm
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West

Friday
01/30
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
clean, cloudy
Saturday
01/31
NW
Haw: 8-10
Face: 12-18
Rising Early

Sunday
02/01
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Dropping

Monday
02/02
NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping

Tuesday
02/03
N-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising Later

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South

Friday
01/30
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding
really clean, cloudy
Saturday
01/31
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Sunday
02/01
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Monday
02/02
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Tuesday
02/03
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

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east

Friday
01/30
E-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding
fairly clear, onshore mush
Saturday
01/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Sunday
02/01
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Monday
02/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Tuesday
02/03
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Friday   01/30
Primary: Dropping  NW  2-4' top sets, top spots
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  0-1.5'
Third: Holding  S  0-1.5'
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Marine Warnings:

Friday   01/30
High surf advsry for NW Shores in advance of rising 12' NW
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Sailing Report:

Friday   01/30
fair with light N winds
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Diving Report:

Friday   01/30
Great for South and Wet and fair for East and poor for N

Oahu

SUNSET
Friday   01/30
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
North winds
disorganized and ugly

ROCKY POINT
Friday   01/30
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
North winds
choppy

Pipeline
Friday   01/30
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
North winds
poor

HALEIWA
Friday   01/30
NW
Haw: 2-3 occ +
Face: 3-5 occ +
North winds
bumpy

MAKAHA
Friday   01/30
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
North winds
clean

ALA MOANA
Friday   01/30
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
North winds
smooth

Waikiki
Friday   01/30
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
North winds
glassy

Diamond Head
Friday   01/30
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
North winds
smooth

Sandy Beach
Friday   01/30
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
North winds
smooth

Makapuu
Friday   01/30
E-NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
North winds
poor

Maui

Hookipa
Friday   01/30
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
North winds
choppy

Honolua
Friday   01/30
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
North winds
fair

Kihei
Friday   01/30
W
Haw: 0
Face: 0
North winds
fair to good

Hana
Friday   01/30
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
North winds
bumpy

Lahaina
Friday   01/30
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
North winds
smooth

Kauai

Hanalei
Friday   01/30
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
North winds
good

Majors
Friday   01/30
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
North winds
smooth

Poipu
Friday   01/30
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
North winds
smooth

Kapaa
Friday   01/30
E-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
North winds
bumpy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Friday   01/30
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
North winds
bumpy

Kohala
Friday   01/30
W
Haw: 0
Face: 0
North winds
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Friday   01/30
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
North winds
glassy

Hilo
Friday   01/30
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
North winds
fairly clean

Kau
Friday   01/30
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
North winds
smooth

Weather

Jan 29, 2015 3:30 AM HST

Synopsis
Clouds and a few showers associated with a weak front will move over Kauai and Oahu today, and gradually spread to Maui county tonight and Friday. This moisture will linger through the weekend, and a brief return of light trade winds will focus clouds and showers over windward slopes and coasts. Trade winds will diminish early next week, and prevailing westerly winds will usher in slightly stronger fronts around Tuesday and Thursday.

Discussion
In summary, winds over the area will remain on the light side into early next week, but the large-scale wind direction will be somewhat dynamic, changing slightly from day to day. While heavy rain is not expected through the weekend as the island atmosphere will remain strongly capped at 6 to 8 thousand feet, a couple of weak frontal cloud bands moving over the islands will bring areas of clouds and showers into Friday. This relatively shallow moisture will linger over the area into next week, as the low level flow will remain light. The potential for heavier showers increases next week as westerly winds carry what are expected to be somewhat stronger fronts over the islands.

Currently, what had been a pair of slow-moving ne-sw oriented cloud bands just NW of Kauai Wednesday evening is now a solid mass of broken to overcast stable and showery low clouds that extend for several hundred miles NW of Kauai. Gravity waves propagating through this cloud field have made the identification of a surface frontal boundary near impossible. The islands lie on the southern periphery of a large gyre of low pressure that fills the N Pacific between Hawaii and Alaska. The presence of this gyre has led to a southward suppression of a surface ridge that extends over the area from the NE, with the ridge now analyzed near the Big Island. This has resulted in weak S to SW flow over islands NW of the Big Island, with clouds and showers moving over Kauai and Oahu in weakly convergent SW flow.

With the surface ridge near the Big Island, clear skies and dry weather over Maui county and the Big Island this morning will give way to a few clouds and isolated showers over the slopes this afternoon. For Kauai and Oahu, weak low level convergence and generally westerly flow will lead to clouds and a few showers, with radar currently detecting small showers moving toward and over Kauai and Oahu from the SW.

As low pressure systems rotate around in the gyre to the N, weak fronts extending southward will move over the islands from the NW. The first weak and difficult to analyze frontal cloud band is currently leading to increased clouds and a few showers near Kauai and Oahu, and this moisture is expected to spread to Maui county through tonight as another weak frontal impulse passes just N of Kauai. With the low level flow favoring a westerly direction, showers will favor the normally drier leeward sides of the islands. Also vog is expected to muddle skies from Oahu to the Big Island today before diminishing on Friday, when winds shift to the NW and N.

Moisture associated with the stalling weak front is expected to linger over the central part of the chain on Friday, as weak convergence SE of the front brings an increase in clouds and a few showers to the Big Island. The shift to northerly winds will be due to a weak ridge passing N of the area, with this ridge supporting light trade winds Saturday through Monday. With trade winds blowing, the lingering moisture will fuel clouds and a few showers over windward areas. This return to a weak trade flow will develop as the large gyre shifts northward.

As a new large scale gyre develops NW of the islands early next week, winds will weaken and shift to the s/se again as a surface ridge moves over the islands. On tuesday/wednesday, the ridge will slide far S of the islands, leading to prevailing westerly winds for most of the chain. These west winds will usher a couple of fronts over the islands, as the parent lows pass N of the islands. One front is slated to arrive around Tuesday, with another by Thursday, with these boundaries expected to contain a little greater moisture depth and dynamic support. Winds over the Big Island summits are also expected to increase around this time. Worth noting that global models still differ as to the timing and strength of these fronts, thus the longer range forecast will potentially be subject to large changes. The current long range forecast represents a blend of recent model guidance.

Aviation
A weak front NW of Kauai will push toward the western islands today. Ahead of this front, a convergence band is bringing showers and cloudy conditions to Oahu and parts of Kauai and Molokai. Radar shows some quick northeasterly moving showers, with cloud tops between 8 and 13 kft over western Oahu and the Kauai channel. The showers are embedded with periods of MVFR cigs and vis. There is potential for mountain obscuration this morning, mainly along the southwestern slopes of the Waianae range in Oahu, if showers and lower clouds continue to stream in. The approaching front is fairly shallow and weak, and is expected to bring mainly VFR with isol MVFR cigs and vis with minimal shower activity.

The other islands remain fairly quiet this morning and expect VFR conditions to prevail.

Marine
A moderate NW swell will gradually diminish through tonight, based on guidance and observations at buoy 51101 NW of Kauai. Recently observed swell heights of 5 to 6 feet at the Waimea buoy support the cancellation of the current high surf advisory for exposed N and W shores. However, reinforcing swells from the NW and NNW will arrive Friday and Saturday respectively, leading to elevated surf along N facing shores, and less so along W facing shores, especially as the swell turns toward the N on Saturday. Both swells will produce surf near advisory levels, with surf remaining elevated through Sunday before gradually diminishing Monday and Tuesday. The Oahu surf discussion /srdhfo/ was updated Wednesday and contains detailed insight on the source of the swells.

While winds are expected to remain below small craft advisory /sca/ criteria through at least the weekend, combined seas may top out near 10 feet on Saturday in marine zones exposed to the NNW swell.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.







Small craft advisory through 600 pm Thursday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay.
Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

NPAC: 1/27/15
The Jet stream hovers 30-40N latitude (600-1200 miles north of us) and has a decent consolidation from 170E to 150W longitude or 1800 miles West of Hawaii to 600 miles East of us. By Thursday the Jet breaks up with a split off to our West with flows of the trough pointing our way… thus, the front/weather and Konas. By the weekend this feature lifts and NE trades return as the Jet once again begins to extend off Japan and reaching longitudes of Hawaii by Tuesday. This leads to higher chances of storm formation and closer proximity to Hawaii for more wintery WNW-NW surf.

Currently, Surf went fro 2-4’ to 4-6’ and juicy between 7am and 10am. We have a rising WNW building to 10’ by Wednesday from an East bound hurricane force Low last Friday off N. Japan (Hokkaido). The fetch was in the 300-320 band and lifted seas to 25’ tho’ nearly 2000 miles away. It hit the buoys with 20 second forerunners after midnight with the Bay seeing 22 sec. We expect the WNW to take over the recent event with 5-7+’ by the evening session and peak Wednesday at 8-10’ solid at spots like Sunset and Pipe.

Next: the storm weakened as it neared the 180 dateline Sunday the 25th crossing it Monday. Since this portion was closer by 600-800 miles to us we will see significant heights Wed. afternoon maybe over 10’ tho’ with shorter 15 seconds.

Next: A low comes down off the Aleutians on our side of the dateline Thursday-Saturday and hover its fetch for a long lasting NNW swell of 8-12’ for top reefs. It could feather on the 2nd reefs.

Next: by this weekend a large gyre sets up in the Gulf with Lows spinning within for a series of NNW-N swells. The first fetch moves down Sunday and veers East. Surf at 5-7’ from the NNW to N fills late morning Tuesday the 3rd with 14 seconds.

Last: early next week a gyre spins up off Japan with 2 Lows spawning within for a 4-6+ W-WNW swell Friday-Saturday the 6 and 7th of Feb. Shadowing will occur on this up to 295 from Ni’ihau and Kauai.
We may also see some 6’ NNW surf from a nearby source later Saturday the 7th and well keep an eye on this long ranger.

SPAC:
The zonal or west to east flowing Jet in far down off the Ross Ice shelf and tho’ Lows move along its track they’re too distant with fetches too short for anymore than background pulses of 14 seconds. Tho’ we see an equator bound flow Friday 1/30 the Low has marginal winds thus seas are too small to make more than 1’ in Hawaii after 5000 miles. There are a couple Lows early next week from Samoa but they track SE away from us and thus no surf is expected.
One low possibility comes Feb 4th as a storm comes up into NZ but it needs to move farther east if we’re to see surf. We’ll keep an eye out as models can change.

Windward:
Tiny 2’ trade swells into early Feb thanks to all the storm activity in the NPAC weakening and pushing Highs East. We have off and on small NE swell post all these frontal passages.









FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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