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Exclusive Obs: 7am update Saturday Jan 31, 2015 powered by Hanks Tax 853-1170.

Sunnier today with light AM NE Trades, new NW swell still filling in along with the trades.

High Surf Advsry for a new NW. Tiny for south and east shores.
Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Up and rising on the 13 sec NW: NW buoy is 11' 13 sec.. Sunset is 6-8'+ and Pipe is 5-7' and everywhere is semi clean with light side shore winds; partly sunny.
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West:

Up and rising on the new NW at 4-6+' and mostly smooth offshore conditions; mostly sunny.
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Town:

Holding tiny on the generic background S at 0-1.5' with glassy to offshore N winds at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area at 0-1.5'. mostly sunny.
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Diamond Head:

Holding on the background South at 0-1.5' with smooth offshores; mostly sunny (see SNN Cam).
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Sandy's:

Holding on a combo swell with N and S at 0-1.5' right near shore and out at the Points with light N winds and smooth. Mostly sunny.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on an East and N swell at a smooth 0-1-2' sets off and on and bumpy PM onshores. Partly cloudy.

Weather

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 80°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph NE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 80°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph NE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 81°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph S

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 83°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph WSW

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 82°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph W

NE
10-20
Lite AM winds
NE
10-20

SW
5-10
New front and Konas again
W
5-10
veering round compass
NW
5-7

North

Saturday
01/31
NW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Rising
11' 13 sec;
Sunday
02/01
NW
Haw: 6-8
Face: 10-15
Dropping

Monday
02/02
NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Dropping

Tuesday
02/03
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising Later
6' 14 sec 8pm
Wednesday
02/04
N-NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Dropping

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West

Saturday
01/31
NW
Haw: 5-7 occ +
Face: 8-12 occ +
Rising Early

Sunday
02/01
NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Dropping

Monday
02/02
NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping

Tuesday
02/03
N-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising Later

Wednesday
02/04
N-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Dropping

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South

Saturday
01/31
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Sunday
02/01
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Monday
02/02
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Tuesday
02/03
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Wednesday
02/04
S
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

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east

Saturday
01/31
E-NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

Sunday
02/01
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising

Monday
02/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Tuesday
02/03
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
02/04
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Saturday   01/31
Primary: Rising  NW  8-10+
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  0-2
Third: Holding  S  0-1.5'
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Marine Warnings:

Saturday   01/31
High surf advsry for NW Shores
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Sailing Report:

Saturday   01/31
Good with afternoon NE trades 10-20
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Diving Report:

Saturday   01/31
Great for South and poor for North and West and fair for East

Oahu

SUNSET
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
NE Trades light-moderate
fair to good
8-10+ PM
ROCKY POINT
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
NE Trades light-moderate
fair
rising
Pipeline
Saturday   01/31
NW Rising
Haw: 5-7+
Face: 8-12+
NE Trades light-moderate
fair to good
Volcom Pipe Pro Day 2 ON
HALEIWA
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 5-7+
Face: 8-12+
NE Trades light-moderate
fair
rising
MAKAHA
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
NE Trades light-moderate
clean
rising
ALA MOANA
Saturday   01/31
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light-moderate
smooth

Waikiki
Saturday   01/31
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light-moderate
glassy

Diamond Head
Saturday   01/31
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light-moderate
fair

Sandy Beach
Saturday   01/31
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades light-moderate
smooth

Makapuu
Saturday   01/31
E-NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Maui

Hookipa
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 4-6 occ 8
Face: 6-10 occ 14
NE Trades light-moderate
slightly bumpy

Honolua
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
NE Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Kihei
Saturday   01/31
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades light-moderate
semi-clean

Hana
Saturday   01/31
E-NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades moderate
semi-clean

Lahaina
Saturday   01/31
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Kauai

Hanalei
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 6-8
Face: 10-15
NE Trades light-moderate
fair to good
rising
Majors
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Calm to seabreezes
smooth

Poipu
Saturday   01/31
S
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Calm to trades
smooth

Kapaa
Saturday   01/31
E-NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades light-moderate
fairly clean

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
NE Trades light-moderate
fairly clean

Kohala
Saturday   01/31
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light-moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Saturday   01/31
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Calm to seabreezes
glassy

Hilo
Saturday   01/31
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades light-moderate
fairly clean

Kau
Saturday   01/31
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades light-moderate
semi-clean

Weather

Jan 31, 2015 8:30 PM HST

Synopsis
Trade winds are gradually returning to the aloha state this weekend as a surface ridge builds north of the area. Low clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka sections, but isolated showers may develop over leeward sections each afternoon. Starting late Monday, a front approaching the islands from the northwest will cause gusty southwesterly winds and wet weather to spread across the island chain. After the front passes, the circulation around a broad surface low north of the islands will maintain an extended period of gusty westerly winds and wet weather across most of the state. These unsettled weather conditions may continue through the end of next week.

Discussion
The tail end of a weakening north northeast to south southwest oriented frontal system is evident in the vicinity of the Big Island according to satellite imagery. In addition to the former front, a weak surface ridge is just north of the islands. The close proximity of these synoptic features is keeping winds across the islands light and variable early this morning. In the upper levels above the state, water vapor imagery and the early morning balloon soundings from Hilo and Lihue indicate the upper level flow is nearly zonal. However, a mid-level trough located west of Kauai is propagating slowly toward the islands. This feature is producing some dynamic lift across the region, so the coverage of low clouds and showers has increased during the past few hours across many parts of the island chain compared with earlier tonight. The atmosphere is rather dry near Kauai according to the early morning sounding, with higher moisture values over the eastern islands. As a result, there are low clouds and isolated showers mainly over the eastern half of the state, especially in the vicinity of the windward and southeastern Big Island. Radar reflectivity returns appear to indicate the showers are relatively light.

The forecast models indicate the surface front will continue to dissipate northeast of the Big Island. They also show the surface ridge will continue to build north of the area this weekend. As this occurs, the pressure gradient will increase across the islands, which will allow weak trades to develop this weekend. Relatively dry air will also be over the islands, and the trades will carry some low clouds and light showers mainly into windward and mauka sections of the islands. Some showers may also develop over leeward sections during the afternoon hours.

The forecast guidance shows the brief period of trades will continue into Monday. By late Monday, a front will approach Kauai from the northwest. This front will not only bring wet weather to the islands, but it will increase southwest winds across the state. These strong southwesterly winds ahead of the front may produce locally gusty downslope winds over northeast and east facing slopes of some of the smaller islands through Tuesday.

The GFS and ECMWF models differ on the exact placement of the parent surface low associated with this front. However, both agree that westerly surface winds will dominate our weather after the front passes through late Tuesday. Both models also indicate cloudy and wet weather will continue, especially over the smaller islands. The models appear to bring 1 or 2 additional fronts down across the islands from Wednesday night through early Friday. The GFS model shows an extended period of unusually strong westerly winds across the state as the broad surface low spins north of the area. The ECMWF model shows somewhat weaker westerly winds, so we will need to monitor the future changes in the model output before we can be certain that they have converged on a realistic solution.

With some uncertainty remaining in the model solutions, the current forecast beyond Tuesday is a blend of the models. However, during time periods with significant differences in the guidance, the forecast has been trended towards the GFS solution. Further refinements will be needed as additional model runs become available.

Finally, assuming there is an extended period of westerly winds, this wind direction is very unusual in the islands for more than a day or two. Note that winds from the west may produce local accelerations and strong gusts due to downsloping on the downwind sides of higher terrain, such as the east and northeast facing slopes of the Waianae and Koolau mountain ranges on Oahu. Should these unusually gusty conditions occur over a period of days, there may be potential for some structures and vegetation to be adversely impacted. Localized power outages are also a possibility, especially if the strong gusty winds are accompanied by heavy rain that adds additional stress to weak tree limbs. Anybody living in these potentially vulnerable locations should monitor future forecast updates for the potential of damaging local wind effects developing next week.

Aviation
While VFR conditions are expected at most of the terminals, intermittent MVFR conditions are occurring across northeast-facing slopes of the eastern islands this morning. Cloud cover is sufficient to warrant issuance of airmet sierra for mountain obscuration across all Big Island slopes above 3000 feet and below 7000 feet. This cloud cover is expected to last through the morning.

Marine
The current northwest swell continues to produce elevated surf along most north and some west facing shores of the smaller Hawaiian islands early this morning. The most recent observations from national data buoy center buoy number 51101 located northwest of Kauai indicates the swell height is 11 to 12 feet with a period of around 14 seconds. Closer to the islands, the Waimea buoy readings were 8 to 9 feet with a period of around 13 seconds. West facing shores of Oahu and Molokai have been added to the high surf advisory. The high surf advisory may need to be extended beyond 6 am HST Sunday morning if buoy readings show the swell remains elevated later tonight. This north northwest swell should start to gradually subside starting Sunday afternoon.

In addition to high surf across parts of the state, the elevated swell has increased seas across portions of the Hawaiian coastal waters to the small craft advisory /sca/ threshold through tonight. Therefore, a SCA remains in effect due to elevated seas for the waters surrounding Kauai, the Oahu windward waters, the Kaiwi Channel and the Maui county windward waters.

Winds are currently forecast to remain below the SCA criteria this weekend. However, as southwest winds ahead of the front begin to increase, winds are forecast to reach the SCA criteria across parts of the western coastal waters starting late Monday. Strong southwest to west winds may continue across most of the coastal waters from Tuesday through the end of the new work week. In addition to the winds, seas will also become elevated again next week, especially starting late Wednesday.




Small craft advisory through 600 pm Thursday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay.
Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

NPAC: 1/27/15
The Jet stream hovers 30-40N latitude (600-1200 miles north of us) and has a decent consolidation from 170E to 150W longitude or 1800 miles West of Hawaii to 600 miles East of us. By Thursday the Jet breaks up with a split off to our West with flows of the trough pointing our way… thus, the front/weather and Konas. By the weekend this feature lifts and NE trades return as the Jet once again begins to extend off Japan and reaching longitudes of Hawaii by Tuesday. This leads to higher chances of storm formation and closer proximity to Hawaii for more wintery WNW-NW surf.

Currently, Surf went fro 2-4’ to 4-6’ and juicy between 7am and 10am. We have a rising WNW building to 10’ by Wednesday from an East bound hurricane force Low last Friday off N. Japan (Hokkaido). The fetch was in the 300-320 band and lifted seas to 25’ tho’ nearly 2000 miles away. It hit the buoys with 20 second forerunners after midnight with the Bay seeing 22 sec. We expect the WNW to take over the recent event with 5-7+’ by the evening session and peak Wednesday at 8-10’ solid at spots like Sunset and Pipe.

Next: the storm weakened as it neared the 180 dateline Sunday the 25th crossing it Monday. Since this portion was closer by 600-800 miles to us we will see significant heights Wed. afternoon maybe over 10’ tho’ with shorter 15 seconds.

Next: A low comes down off the Aleutians on our side of the dateline Thursday-Saturday and hover its fetch for a long lasting NNW swell of 8-12’ for top reefs. It could feather on the 2nd reefs.

Next: by this weekend a large gyre sets up in the Gulf with Lows spinning within for a series of NNW-N swells. The first fetch moves down Sunday and veers East. Surf at 5-7’ from the NNW to N fills late morning Tuesday the 3rd with 14 seconds.

Last: early next week a gyre spins up off Japan with 2 Lows spawning within for a 4-6+ W-WNW swell Friday-Saturday the 6 and 7th of Feb. Shadowing will occur on this up to 295 from Ni’ihau and Kauai.
We may also see some 6’ NNW surf from a nearby source later Saturday the 7th and well keep an eye on this long ranger.

SPAC:
The zonal or west to east flowing Jet in far down off the Ross Ice shelf and tho’ Lows move along its track they’re too distant with fetches too short for anymore than background pulses of 14 seconds. Tho’ we see an equator bound flow Friday 1/30 the Low has marginal winds thus seas are too small to make more than 1’ in Hawaii after 5000 miles. There are a couple Lows early next week from Samoa but they track SE away from us and thus no surf is expected.
One low possibility comes Feb 4th as a storm comes up into NZ but it needs to move farther east if we’re to see surf. We’ll keep an eye out as models can change.

Windward:
Tiny 2’ trade swells into early Feb thanks to all the storm activity in the NPAC weakening and pushing Highs East. We have off and on small NE swell post all these frontal passages.









FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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