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Exclusive Obs: 7am Monday March 2nd, powered by: Surfer, the Bar: Talk Story Wednesday

Clear and cold, brisk NE'erlies. Small craft for fresh NE trades and Hi surf advsry's for North shore.

NS has improved alittle but the 'morning muck' is still on it. It's super clean for all Leeward. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Up and holding on the new moderate 14 second NNW (NW buoy 275 miles NW: 6' 13 sec. Waimea 6' 14 sec) Currently, it's 4-6' at Sunset, while Pipe and Chuns are 3-5' (we might see higher sets through midday). Texture has improved but it's still side off & bumpy & breezy; mostly clear.
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West:

Up and holding on the NNW at 2-4' mostly and a chance of some higher sets'. Super clean offshores with NE'erlies; clear.
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Town:

Holding on a small south swell that pulled a disappearing act; surf is super clean at 0-1- occ 2' at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area is 0-1.5'. Clean and glassy at dawn but mostly offshores today and clear.
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Diamond Head:

Holding on the small south at 0-1-2' with super clean water, soon well see nice offshores; nice weather (see SNN Cam).
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Sandy's:

Down a notch and Holding on the E-NE swell and tiny South at 1-2' out over the reefs and in the shorebreak with NNW-NNE winds and straight offshore and excellent; clear.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding from E-NE trade angle at 1-2'+ on the left to the middle with surf on the right too; choppy with clouds.

Weather

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 84°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph NE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 80°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph NE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
69°F
max: 79°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
28mph NE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
67°F
max: 79°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph NE

NE
10-20

NE
10-25

NE
10-25

NE
10-25

NE
10-25

North

Monday
03/02
N-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Holding
clear, bumpy, improved; 6' 14 sec
Tuesday
03/03
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping
6' 11 sec
Wednesday
03/04
W-NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Rising
4' 15 sec
Thursday
03/05
W-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping
4' 14 sec
Friday
03/06
W-NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping
4' 12 sec
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West

Monday
03/02
N-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Holding
clear, super clean
Tuesday
03/03
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping

Wednesday
03/04
W-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Rising

Thursday
03/05
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping

Friday
03/06
W-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

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South

Monday
03/02
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising Later
super clean, clear
Tuesday
03/03
S-SE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding
2' 16 sec SSE
Wednesday
03/04
S-SE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding
2' 15 sec
Thursday
03/05
S-SE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Friday
03/06
S-SE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

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east

Monday
03/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding
cloudy, choppy
Tuesday
03/03
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Wednesday
03/04
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Thursday
03/05
NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
10' 8 sec
Friday
03/06
NE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping
8' 8 sec
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Current Swells:

Monday   03/02
Primary: Rising  N-NW  4-6+
Secondary: Holding  E-NE  1-2+
Third: Rising  S-SE  1-2' (3' evening)
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   03/02
small craft adv and High surf for NW shores
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Sailing Report:

Monday   03/02
Good with breezy NE'eries
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Diving Report:

Monday   03/02
Good for south and west; poor for east & north shores

Oahu

SUNSET
Monday   03/02
NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
NE Trades light-moderate
fair

ROCKY POINT
Monday   03/02
NW
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
NE Trades light-moderate
fair

Pipeline
Monday   03/02
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
NE Trades light-moderate
Improving

HALEIWA
Monday   03/02
NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
NE Trades light-moderate
fair

MAKAHA
Monday   03/02
NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
NE Trades light-moderate
smooth

ALA MOANA
Monday   03/02
S-SE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades very light
smooth
1.5' 14 sec
Waikiki
Monday   03/02
S-SE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
NE Trades light
smooth

Diamond Head
Monday   03/02
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades very light
smooth

Sandy Beach
Monday   03/02
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NNW winds
smooth

Makapuu
Monday   03/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
North winds
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Monday   03/02
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate
bumpy

Honolua
Monday   03/02
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate
semi-clean

Kihei
Monday   03/02
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Hana
Monday   03/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
NE Trades moderate
choppy

Lahaina
Monday   03/02
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades moderate
smooth

Kauai

Hanalei
Monday   03/02
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
NE Trades moderate
bumpy
Rising
Majors
Monday   03/02
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate
good

Poipu
Monday   03/02
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades light
smooth

Kapaa
Monday   03/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Monday   03/02
COMBO
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
NE Trades moderate
choppy

Kohala
Monday   03/02
W
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades light-moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Monday   03/02
COMBO
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
NE Trades light
good

Hilo
Monday   03/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
slightly bumpy

Kau
Monday   03/02
COMBO
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
NE Trades moderate
good

Weather

Mar 02, 2015 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Showers over much of the state, and thunderstorms around the Big Island, will diminish slowly through mid-week. A very moist air mass surging from the south, and cool air lingering overhead and to the north, will spread stronger showers over the islands again from Thursday into the weekend. Trade winds will persist over most of the state through the forecast period.

Discussion
Deeply stacked troughing lingered around the Big Island. At the surface, the trough represented the tail end of a mostly dissipated front. Aloft, loose, baggy troughing extended over most of the state from the deeper vortex located mostly over the gulf of Alaska. The most significant dynamics now occurred just to the northeast of the offshore waters, but sharp temperature and humidity gradients kept conditions unstable over northeast through south parts of the offshore waters, and to a lesser extent over Maui and Hawaii counties.

These differences in air mass occurred in two different ways. Vertically, despite its poor dynamics, the shallow mid-level trough overhead included an impressive cold pool. Similarly, though to a lesser extent, the air mass at low levels over the northwest half of the state still retained some of its cool and dry polar character. The extremely moist air mass over the southeast end of the state contrasted sharply with both the air above and to its northwest. Short waves flowing around the edge of the low aloft also contributed to the thunderstorm development over the offshore waters, but simple thermodynamic instability seemed like the most significant ingredient this morning.

That being the case, the convection likely will continue through the early part of the week even if the trough aloft fills considerably as guidance suggested, especially once solar heating becomes important again later this morning. Thunderstorms as such will develop further southeast with time, becoming limited mainly to around the Big Island today, but towering cumuli may continue to produce locally significant showers through the first half of the week.

The Risk of afternoon convection also motivated extending the winter weather advisory over the Big Island summits through this afternoon. With the cold pool firmly in place, any convective showers forming over the Big Island slopes will produce mostly frozen precipitation there.

By Wednesday, guidance predicted the trough aloft to reform and sharpen along a zonal orientation, providing marginally increased dynamic support again. Although consensus was somewhat indifferent, some solutions showed a significant surge of water vapor from the deep tropics as well. The air mass over the northwest end of the state likely will modify by that time, but still should remain substantially cooler and drier than this surge from the south, especially if another weak frontal remnant reaches the state as most solutions showed. Thus, by Thursday, convection, or at least significant shower development, should start spreading north across the state again, even though winds will remain northeasterly.

Depending on how strong the moisture surge from the south turns out to be, increased showers may well continue through the second half of the week and into the weekend. Recent runs of the GFS have predicted the area of maximum pops to retreat to the south again a little more quickly than earlier runs did, so clouds and showers have not been increased for the weekend over earlier thinking. However, further adjustments may be needed with time.

Marine
A trough, the south end of a largely dissipated front, languished near the Big Island, keeping winds light and variable there, but moderate to strong from the northeast around Kauai. More widespread windy conditions are expected by mid-week.

A large north-northwest swell should produce surf above the threshold for a high surf advisory today, so a high surf advisory remained in effect. The swell also built seas to the threshold for a small craft advisory over most of the coastal waters. Smaller north-northwest swells are likely to arrive later in the week.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory until midnight HST tonight for Niihau, Kauai windward, Kauai leeward, Waianae coast, Oahu north shore, Oahu Koolau, olomana, Molokai, Maui windward west, Maui central valley, windward Haleakala.

Winter weather advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for Big Island summits.

Small craft advisory until midnight HST tonight for Kauai northwest waters, Kauai windward waters, Kauai leeward waters, Kauai channel, Oahu windward waters, Oahu leeward waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui county windward waters, Maui county leeward waters, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island windward waters.





Broken clouds are clouds which cover between 6/10 and 9/10 of the sky while scattered clouds is a sky condition when between 1/10 and 5/10 of clouds are covered.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture
2/28/15
NPAC
The Jet stream is not looking anything like earlier this month. In fact, there are 2 high pressure zones, one to our NE moving south and one to our NW moving SE. The later is blocking the Jet and thus the Lows are staying far way. Say good bye for now to the long pattern of big waves from nearby big storms cutting off the trades. All the way through the 7 day forecast highs dominate and even send the Jet flow above the Aleutians. The Jet trough gets deeper toward next weekend to our East which only helps in bringing weather not NW waves.
Recent/Current: The NW shores have gone from extreme WNW swells from close Lows and light konas to N swells and cold NE trades, total opposites. This weekend its 3’ side-shores and cold.
Next: A compact 35-45kt storm spawned just our side of the dateline Friday and moved SE toward HI with a captured fetch (adjacent winds ‘follow’ the Lows center aiming at its target). The nose reaches to about 800 miles to our NNW Saturday thus less open ocean swell decay time. We’ll go ahead and claim solid Advsry level 6-8’ NNW surf Monday. This episode will drop fast to 5’ Tuesday plus NE side off shores will not be optimal.
Next: A Low formed off the Kuirls Friday and is moving ENE with a broad apparent fetch in the 310-330 band. The winds don’t get under 1800 miles away so plenty swell decay will reduce this WNW to 3-5’ Wednesday-Thursday. Periods will be 13-15 seconds. Side off shores will persist.
Last: We may see a small 4’ N to NNE swell fill Sunday the 8th from a small Low to our NNE Friday. The storm builds and broadens into Sunday so we may see some extra size Monday of 4-6’ from the N at 12 seconds.

SPAC:
Not looking good for surface low enhancement until this Friday when a fat deep trough points up into the Taz. Models say ‘no swell production’ from this forecast as the Low stays too zonal and breaks up.
Recent/Current: we’ve had plenty small but fun/doable ‘background’ SSE to SSW over the past week or two; add in the West wraps and Town side has been above seasonal. Plus, the entire Leeward side likes the NE tilt to the trade pattern we’re now in.
Next: A big Low 1000 miles South of Tahiti tracked east beyond our optimal window by Tuesday the 24th. But it was a powerful storm and should send up some 18 sec forerunners Monday with slowly building inconsistent SSE surf of 3’ by late in the day peaking Tuesday-Wednesday. Some reefs like Tennis Courts and Kaisers could see some sets a foot overhead. Other SSW sucking spots will hit shoulder high.
Next: a small chance of small 2’ SSW surf at 14 seconds could fill late Thursday the 5th from a marginal east bond Low far to the SE of NZ end of Feb.
Long ranger fantasy: Tons of storminess moves east from under Australia into the Taz mid week Wednesday but the fetch is not right. WW3 is getting excited tho’ and hinting of some 18 sec forerunners around Wed the 11th with 3’ SSW surf Thur-Saturday the 12-14th. We need to get closer to claim.
Windward: The Low that started off Japan and gave us our Wester ended up near to HI and produced 20-30kt winds on her NW side allowing for some isolated 1-3’ N wind swell this past week. In addition, we had some solid 3’ East swell produced by the pressure gradient between the persistent NE High and the Trough to our ENE. All fades from Sunday from these 2 sources. However, thanks to the fresh NE trades we’ll add back some 1-3’ NE surf into Monday and ‘maybe’ even Tuesday.

















FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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