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Exclusive Obs: special 1130am update for Wednesday 11/26 powered by the Vans World Cup

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Fairly clear skies. Surf way down with moderate to fresh NE winds. The Target Women's Pro at Honolua Bay is ON currently with clean 3-4+' sets from the NNW. The Vans Triple Crown's 2nd Jewel The Vans World Cup at Sunset is Off as surfs just 3-5' at Sunset but with plenty swell coming.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping from a 12 sec NNW with semi bumpy, wonky surf at 3-4+' at Sunset and Rocky pt., Pipe, Chuns-Ali'i all about 3-4' on the sets. Fairly clear.
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West:

Down and dropping on the NNW @ a clean offshore 2-3' at Makaha with clear weather.
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Town:

Down and Holding tiny 10 second SSW pushing up some offshore 0-1.5' off and on 2' sets at Bowls, Beach Park, Queens. Fairly clear.
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Diamond Head:

Holding background SSE+SSW swells of 1-2', fair smooth side offshores. Partly cloudy,
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Sandy's:

Down and Holding on the N wrap and some ENE swell with semi fair 1-2' occ 2.5' sets from Full Pt,, 1/2 point and a couple peaks into Gas Chambers but still breaking close to shore and slamming; Partly cloudy,
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East Makapu'u:

Down and holding on North and some ENE trade swell with onshore chop @ 1-2-3' mostly on the right side and smaller on the left; cloudy and cold dawn.

Weather

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

North

Wednesday
11/26
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping
5' 12 sec; sideoff
Thursday
11/27
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Rising
6' 14 sec NNE
Friday
11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Rising
6' 14 sec NNE
Saturday
11/29
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Dropping
5' 13 sec
Sunday
11/30
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding
5' 12 sec
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West

Wednesday
11/26
N-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping
clear, clean
Thursday
11/27
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising Later

Friday
11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising

Saturday
11/29
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping

Sunday
11/30
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

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South

Thursday
11/27
SE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Friday
11/28
SE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising

Saturday
11/29
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Sunday
11/30
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Dropping

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east

Wednesday
11/26
ENE+N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding

Thursday
11/27
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising

Friday
11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising

Saturday
11/29
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Holding

Sunday
11/30
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping

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Current Swells:

Wednesday   11/26
Primary: Dropping  N-NW  3-5'
Secondary: Holding  ENE+N  2-3'
Third: Rising Evening  SW+SSW  0-1.5'
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   11/26
small craft for channels
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   11/26
Good with 10-25mph NE
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   11/26
Good for south and good for deeper west, poor for North shore and east dives.

Oahu

SUNSET
Wednesday   11/26
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

ROCKY POINT
Wednesday   11/26
N-NW
Haw: 3-4+
Face: 5-7+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Pipeline
Wednesday   11/26
N-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

HALEIWA
Wednesday   11/26
N-NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

MAKAHA
Wednesday   11/26
N-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

ALA MOANA
Wednesday   11/26
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Waikiki
Wednesday   11/26
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Diamond Head
Wednesday   11/26
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades moderate
good

Sandy Beach
Wednesday   11/26
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Makapuu
Wednesday   11/26
ENE+N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Wednesday   11/26
N-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
NE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Honolua
Wednesday   11/26
N-NW
Haw: 3-4
Face: 5-7
NE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Kihei
Wednesday   11/26
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-strong
sailin' and kitin'

Hana
Wednesday   11/26
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Lahaina
Wednesday   11/26
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades moderate
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Wednesday   11/26
N-NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Majors
Wednesday   11/26
N-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Poipu
Wednesday   11/26
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Kapaa
Wednesday   11/26
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Wednesday   11/26
ENE+N
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kohala
Wednesday   11/26
NNW+NNE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Kona
Wednesday   11/26
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades moderate
good

Hilo
Wednesday   11/26
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kau
Wednesday   11/26
COMBO
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Weather

Nov 26, 2014 3:29 AM HST

Synopsis
Moderate to fresh trade winds and dry conditions will prevail across most of the state today, but lingering low level moisture will continue to generate showers across the windward Big Island. A strong high pressure system will settle north of the islands starting tonight, resulting in breezier trades for the rest of the week and into the weekend. A stable air mass will keep trade showers mostly light and confined to the windward and mauka areas.

Discussion
Clouds have remained abundant across windward sections of the state overnight. The smaller islands have been largely dry, except for some persistent showers along the windward slopes of Haleakala. However the windward Big Island has remained soupy with widespread measurable rainfall continuing. At the surface, a 1022 mb high is centered about 500 miles northwest of Kauai, with a cold front along 30°N separating this high from a larger 1026 mb high about 1250 miles northwest of Kauai. The 12Z Hilo sounding found abundant low level moisture beneath an elevated inversion around 9000 feet. Meanwhile the Lihue sounding shows a strong inversion based around 5500 feet, and a very dry atmosphere with pwat of only 0.77 inches, which is about two standard deviations below normal.

The stubborn low level trough which has lingered near Maui county for the past couple of days should finally wash out later today, allowing for less cloudiness across windward areas. Most of the state will remain dry due to the strong/low inversion and lack of available moisture, but scattered showers will remain across the windward Big Island where deeper moisture is available.

A stronger surface high is then forecast to build slowly eastward to the north of the state between 30°N and 40°N from tonight into the weekend. Breezy conditions will become more widespread over land areas during this time as fresh to strong trade winds prevail. Showers will be mainly confined to windward and mauka areas through the period, and most common during the night and early morning hours. We may see a modest increase in windward showers on Friday, when the remnants of an old frontal boundary reach the state. Blended model data keeps pwats around one inch, which is below the 25th percentile for this time of year, through the next several days. Therefore would expect rainfall amounts to remain mostly on the light side even over windward areas. Long range models do not show any indications of a frontal passage across the main Hawaiian islands through the weekend, with some potential for another weak front to approach the state next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Aviation
With low level winds from the northeast, low clouds, some with accompanying light rain or showers, are mainly concentrated over north clockwise through east sections of the isles. This is where MVFR conditions may be occurring from time to time. On the Big Island, though, MVFR has been more persistent, from Upolu Point to Volcano. Elsewhere, VFR is the rule.

An airmet for mountain obscuration remains in effect for the northeast quadrant of the Big Island. An airmet for low level turbulence, south through west of the mountains, will be posted at 0600 HST as trade winds ramp up.

Marine
Northwest swell has continued to subside overnight at both buoy 51101 and Waimea bay. The high surf advisory for north and west facing shores will be dropped as scheduled with the morning forecast package.

A new NNE swell, generated by a gale low 1400 miles north northeast of Oahu, is due to arrive in the islands starting this afternoon and peaking tonight. This swell combined with building wind waves due to increasing trade winds will cause rough surf to develop on east facing shores, especially those with a northern exposure. Near advisory level surf may occur across some of the east facing shores tonight into early Thursday. Surf will be increasing across north facing shores as well, but is currently expected to remain just below advisory levels there. This swell will also cause a concern for harbor surges into Kahului and Hilo harbors tonight into Thursday.

The overnight ascat pass found substantial areas of 25 knot winds in the Alenuihaha channel and southeast/south of the Big Island, with a small area of near 30 knot winds west of Upolu Point. A small craft advisory /sca/ will remain posted for most of the marine zones due to strong winds in the typically windy areas around Maui county and the Big Island, and a combination of wind waves and nw/n swells pushing combined seas to 10 feet. Sca conditions are likely to remain widespread across the Hawaiian coastal waters from tonight through the remainder of this week as strong trade winds continue.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Thursday for Kauai northwest waters, Kauai windward waters, Kauai channel, Oahu windward waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui county windward waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.





Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

11/18/14 Tuesday
NPAC
The Jet Stream wind current 30,000’ up has a zonal trough off Japan that also tracks quickly east all week. This steers storms fast from west to east as the Jet extends all the way to the west coast. By Saturday there’s a split in the Jet near the dateline with more energy staring off Japan again as the Jet drops in latitude. So we should be looking a little better for the long haul.
Recent- Currently: We have a peaking 8-10’ NNW this afternoon with brisk side shore NE trades. This swell comes from 2 fetches. One was up near the Aleutians last Thur-Friday and though the winds were stronger the Low was more distant than the 2nd source which really kicked up the surf due to close proximity of under 1000 miles and 20’ seas Saturday. It’ll drop fast Tuesday as close-shorter period events often do.
Next: A couple of storms close together race east in the zonal Jet this past weekend. Most the swell is off to our NE but we’ll still get some 2-4+ NW waves Wed. @ 14 seconds.

Next: Storm #2 spawned Sunday with up to 20’ seas but stayed further away. Watch for 3-5+’ NW surf Thursday.

Next: A storm forms near the date racing east building by Thursday to our North. We miss most its power but WW3 projects 7’ swell @ 15 sec Sunday which would refract/shoal on country reefs up 8’ minimum. I believe it’s being overcalled. So go with 50/50 for now.

Next: Friday another fast moving Low pressure area is 1500 miles to our N but the area of storminess is broad. We should see energy added to the prior episode holding waves in the 5-8’ range Monday.

Next: Another Low producing 20’ seas forms west of the dateline this weekend and with a much better SE track moving our way Sat-Sunday. If all goes well it could keep the surf 6-8’ with 14 seconds Tuesday.

Last: yet another eastbound Low is nearing and crossing the dateline Monday the 24th. WW3 hints of 6’ 15 seconds Friday which seems delayed by a day or two. Long range forecasts are subject to greater changes.


SPAC:
The Jet : We’re still getting semi lucky with background swells well past mid Nov. Currently, the winds are broken with no potential for sea surface winds. But by Wed. we get a bend NNE tho’ it hugs NZL’s west coast before heading right over the Islands. We go quite for about 3-4 days. Then day 7 we get a bit of troughing on the East coast of NZL. So what we see happening are plenty 2’ swells from the SW to SSW when it could be flat to one.

Recent-current: tiny tiny the past several days but buoys popped Monday with 1’ 15 seconds on the Taz fetch from last Tuesday the 11th. Surf picked up Monday and will be very inconsistently 2’ for top zones into Thursday. Fiji cranked on this storm but for us there’s too many obstacles in the way (Fiji, Samoa and hey, even NZL).

Next: Another Taz Low Tuesday the 18th slams into NZL and it’s not likely more than thigh surf @ 15 sec will be felt locally Thursday the 25th.

Last: Friday the 21st shows a Low moving East under the southern Tip of NZL. This is so far out its tough to claim but we’ll go ahead with a 2’ SSW Saturday the 29th.

Windward side: Recently we’ve had Small back ground 1-2’ East swell with some 2’ N mixing in from recent country swells. Surf will ramping up Wednesday thanks to the High NNE of us strengthening for a day with winds up to 30mph. Surf should hit 2-3’ and subside into this weekend. The Jet drops this weekend allowing storms to get closer and cut trades down and therefore windswell will be at a minimum.

Tropics: No activity in the Tropics.






FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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