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7am update Tuesday 8/4 powered by Reid Surf Boards

Super light NE trades with some variable mix. No High surf advisories for East shores & small craft advisories for island channels, yet. As of 100 am HST, tropical storm Guillermo was about 440 miles east of Hilo. Over the past several hours, Guillermo has been moving toward the northwest between 10 and 15 mph. Intense convection has been persisting near, and north of, the system center.

East swell increasing from Guillermo. Up on a Small SSW. Tropical depression Guillermo surf downgraded and now maxes out Wednesday- Thursday to 3-5' along with wetter weather. Good news: winds out of West for Thursday at peak. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Up and rising now at a tiny wind wrap at Sunset and Rocky Pt. a smooth 0-2' & Rocky Pt, Pipe is up 0-1.5'- Chuns 0-1' & Laniakea 0-2' (higher Wednesday-Friday) with good, smooth AM offshores today; good dives; partly clear.
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West:

Up a hair and Holding the tiny 15 sec SSW up to 0-1' maybe 2' at isolated focal reefs but Makaha is 0-1'. Water's glassy early then mostly offshores; fairly clear and super clean early hours.
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Town:

Up and Holding on a small 15 sec SSW. Surf's 1-2' at Kewalo's-Bowls-Kaisers (channel reefs); good texture with light to moderate AM trades with semi clear skies.
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Diamond Head:

Up and Holding on the 15 sec SSW + 9 sec SSE @ 1-2' maybe a plus set at Right hands/Cliffs/Lite House.Good lines & fairly smooth but increasing side offshores. Fairly cloudy.
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Sandy's:

Up and rising on the new 13 sec ESE Guillermo event and a pinch of 15 sec S-SW+ 11 sec SSE @ 1-2-3' with the highest sets at Full Pt. with some good sandbars & barrels, Smooth with Light and variables at dawn; from Full-Half Pt and Pipe little's; nice day at the beach and semi bumpy.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and Rising straight E trade Guillermo swell at 2-3 maybe occas higher' outside left and toward middle and 1-3' toward Keiki's with smooth water thks to light trades and semi cloudy. Watch for higher sets later.

Weather

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
77°F
max: 91°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 90°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph NE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 92°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph SE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 91°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph E

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
78°F
max: 92°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph ENE

NE
5-15+

W
5-10
veering SW winds from Guillermo
SE
5-15

NE
10-25

E-NE
10-20+

North

Wednesday
08/05
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Thursday
08/06
NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

Friday
08/07
NE
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
Holding
9 sec
Saturday
08/08
NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Dropping
8 sec
Sunday
08/09
NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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West

Wednesday
08/05
SW+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Rising Later

Thursday
08/06
SW+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Rising

Friday
08/07
SW+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Rising

Saturday
08/08
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Holding

Sunday
08/09
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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South

Wednesday
08/05
SW+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
14 sec
Thursday
08/06
SW+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Rising
1.5' 14 sec
Friday
08/07
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Holding

Saturday
08/08
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising

Sunday
08/09
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Holding

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east

Wednesday
08/05
E-SE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Holding

Thursday
08/06
E
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising
Guillermo!
Friday
08/07
E
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

Saturday
08/08
E
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping

Sunday
08/09
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Wednesday   08/05
Primary: Rising  E  3-5' at 13 sec
Secondary: Holding  S-SW  1-2' surf at 14 sec
Third: Dropping  S-SE  0-2' surf
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   08/05
High surf advisories for East to SE shores; small craft adv for channels of Maui and Big Is
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   08/05
Fair as Lite NE in the AM for some spots, good toward midday into this afternoon w/ filling to 10-20 ENE trades
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   08/05
Fair for deep North & for West & poor for East; fair to good for south.

Oahu

SUNSET
Wednesday   08/05
NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades light-moderate
smooth

ROCKY POINT
Wednesday   08/05
NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Pipeline
Wednesday   08/05
NE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades light-moderate
fairly clean

HALEIWA
Wednesday   08/05
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades light-moderate
clean

MAKAHA
Wednesday   08/05
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades light
smooth

ALA MOANA
Wednesday   08/05
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
ENE Trades light
clean

Waikiki
Wednesday   08/05
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
ENE Trades light
smooth

Diamond Head
Wednesday   08/05
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Sandy Beach
Wednesday   08/05
E-SE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Trades light-moderate
smooth
+ S swell
Makapuu
Wednesday   08/05
E
Haw: 3-5 occ +
Face: 5-9 occ +
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Maui

Hookipa
Wednesday   08/05
E-NE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Honolua
Wednesday   08/05
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades light-moderate
smooth

Kihei
Wednesday   08/05
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades light
smooth

Hana
Wednesday   08/05
E
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Lahaina
Wednesday   08/05
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
ENE Trades light
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Wednesday   08/05
ENE Rising
Haw: 1-3+
Face: 2-5+
East Trades light-moderate
good

Majors
Wednesday   08/05
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades light
good
winds veering
Poipu
Wednesday   08/05
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Kapaa
Wednesday   08/05
E
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
ENE Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Wednesday   08/05
E
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
ENE Trades moderate
semi-clean

Kohala
Wednesday   08/05
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades light-moderate
semi-clean

Kona
Wednesday   08/05
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Trades light
good

Hilo
Wednesday   08/05
E
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Trades light-moderate
semi-clean

Kau
Wednesday   08/05
E
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
ENE Trades moderate
good

Weather

Jul 18, 2015 10:00 AM HST
As of 800 am, tropical storm Guillermo was about 610 miles east southeast of Hilo. Over the past several hours Guillermo has been moving toward the northwest near 10 mph. The system has weakened over the past several hours.

Synopsis
A surface high far northeast of the islands will bring trade winds to the area through midweek. The high will be replaced during the middle of the week, which will cause the winds to gradually subside. Look for winds to strengthen again during the latter part of the week. Through the week, showers will be focused over the windward areas, with some afternoon showers over leeward and interior areas when the trades weaken.

Discussion
In general good agreement between the models with the forecast for the week. High pressure far to the northeast of the islands will be replaced by a new high mid week. During that transition, trade winds will weaken, which will allow for some localized land and sea breezes. The resultant ridge remains north of the islands through the transition, but during the second half of the week, the high shifts to be more north of the islands. By the end of the week the trade wind speeds should rebound to more moderate levels.

There is good agreement with the development of a 500 mb low to the northeast of the islands overnight and move to the west. The general path brings the center of the low north of Kauai Monday night. The 500 mb temperatures over the islands with this system remain within normal for this time of year, but it is possible that this system could destabilize the atmosphere again. Earlier forecast update put the slight chance of thunderstorms into the forecast for the Kona slopes tomorrow afternoon. Have left those in place but altered the associated pops.

The global models are in good agreement with a slug of drier air moving over the islands Monday night and Tuesday, which would put some limits on the amount of shower activity. Have made some modifications to the pops through this time period. As the upper low moves west of the islands, the models show an increase in low level moisture moving towards the islands from the southeast, which could increase the shower activity. During this time mid week, winds will be lighter so the showers could form over leeward and interior areas.

More moderate trades are expected to end the week, with showers focused over the windward and mountain areas.

Aviation
Vfr conditions prevail at all taf sites and these conditions are expected to continue through tonight. There may be some local MVFR conditions over windward slopes due to low clouds and SHRA. No airmets are currently in effect.

Marine
A small craft advisory /sca/ is in effect for the typical windier locations near the Big Island and Maui county. Ascat pass last night showed 20 kts, which matched well with hi-res models like the arw and the nmm, which showed a brief uptick expected in the winds today. The SCA goes through 6 am Sunday, but the main focus will be this afternoon. The winds will drop below SCA levels then through mid week, with the next chance for SCA winds coming later in the week.

Surf along east facing shores will be near advisory levels through the next several days due to a number of swells. Current buoy reports match well with the wave watch data and the current forecast so not expecting any changes with that in the short term.

An anticipated intensifying storm system in the south Pacific just east of New Zealand in the next couple of days, will be generating a nice size swell towards Hawaii with the arrival time of Friday night. Please refer to the surf discussion /srdhfo/ discussion for more details.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small craft advisory for waters around Maui including Maalaea Bay and waters south of the Big Island until 6 am HST Sunday.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Quik Big Picture Monday 8/3

NPAC

Recent and current: It's been tiny. But the main deal is the ESE to East to NE swell coming. He's on the buoys 13-15 sec and the swells are rising all day. You can see em along the windward side especially. As of 8am, tropical storm Guillermo was about 600 miles east southeast of Hilo. Over the past several hours Guillermo has been moving toward the northwest near 10 mph. The system has weakened over the past several hours. And it'll cruze NE of the state this week. Surf should ramp Tuesday to 3 or 4' for select reefs along the NS esp. toward Kahuku and 'round the corner. Peaks will be over double overhead for the Windward side with long 13-15 sec periods. 20-40 mph N winds could hit Thursday ruining the conditions. Watch for the surf to drop fast by Friday and esp. Saturday. No other significant swells are showing on the models.


SPAC:

Recent and current: Just background fading SSW and a pinch of SSE. Nothing over 2' and that's occasional. Some support comes in to hold us at 2' this Tuesday from the SW from a Taz source a week ago. There's nothing on the models to get ready for. August has busted the trend...in a bad way. But it's still early. And SSW swells can and do crank into Oct. It's El Nino' so lets stay positive.


Windward: It's all about the G storm all week. Waves are ramping as we write. See above.
Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda Ignacio Jimena Kevin Linda
Marty Nora Olaf Patricia Rick Sandra
Terry Vivian Waldo Xina York Zelda









FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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