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Obs: 3pm Monday 4/20 Powered by: Leahi Health Kailua

Mostly cloudy with 15-30 mph gusty E-NE'erly trades & small craft advsrys & even gales for Alenuihaha channel. High Surf Advsry for Eastern exposures.

Cranking trade wind swell with a building SSW and pulsing small NW. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Up and holding on 12 sec NW. Surf is currently 2-3' at Sunset Pt & at Rocky Pt. Pipe is 2' and breezy/cloudy; Chuns 1-3' and Ali'i; with moderate to fresh ENE trades side offshore; cloudy.
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West:

Up and rising on the new 1-3' SSW and Down and d from the 1-2+' NW at Makaha with moderate+ offshores and cloudy. Longer rides from the NW.
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Town:

Up and rising on the 15 second SW-SSW with some SSE at 1-3 at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area 1-2+' & with brisk offshores & mostly clear. Watch for solid 4' Tuesday.
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Diamond Head:

Up and rising from the SSW plus holding on the SSE at 2-3+' but bumpy, increasing 15-25+ ENE trades and cloudy skies.
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Sandy's:

Up and rising on the trade wind swell wrap at 2-3' occ 4' sets in the shorebreak to Chambers and Full Pt, mixing with a new SSW and decent stiff side offshore ENE; mostly cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and rising on the 9 sec period east trade and some NE swell at 2-4' w/ 5' sets from the outside left to middle and inside mostly with 3+' sets at Keikis and choppy as ENE trades are moderate to fresh+ thru broken clouds.

Weather

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 82°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 86°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph E

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 85°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph E

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph ESE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 87°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph SE

E-NE
15-30

E
15-25+

SE
5-15

E-NE
5-15

E-NE
5-15

North

Monday
04/20
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding
2' 12 sec; offshore, cloudy
Tuesday
04/21
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising
3' 12 sec
Wednesday
04/22
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
3' 11 sec
Thursday
04/23
NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Friday
04/24
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

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West

Monday
04/20
NW SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising
clea, cloudy
Tuesday
04/21
COMBO
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Holding
SW + NW
Wednesday
04/22
COMBO
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding
SSW + NW
Thursday
04/23
COMBO
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping
SSW mostly
Friday
04/24
NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Holding

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South

Monday
04/20
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising
stiff side off; fairly cloudy
Tuesday
04/21
S-SW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Rising
3+' 15 sec
Wednesday
04/22
S-SW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Holding
3+' 14 sec
Thursday
04/23
S-SW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping
3' 14 sec
Friday
04/24
S-SW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping

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east

Monday
04/20
E-NE
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
Holding
choppy, cloudy
Tuesday
04/21
E-NE
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
Dropping

Wednesday
04/22
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding

Thursday
04/23
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Friday
04/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Monday   04/20
Primary: Rising  E-NE  3-5'
Secondary: Rising  S-SW  1-2+
Third: Dropping  NW  1-2'+
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Marine Warnings:

Monday   04/20
High surf advsry for East Shores; small craft advisories for all waters
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Sailing Report:

Monday   04/20
Good with moderate to strong and gusty ENE trades filling in
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Diving Report:

Monday   04/20
Fair for South and fair/good deeper West; fair for deeper North and poor for East

Oahu

SUNSET
Monday   04/20
NW+NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
East Trades moderate-strong
fair

ROCKY POINT
Monday   04/20
NW+NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
East Trades moderate-strong
fair

Pipeline
Monday   04/20
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
East Trades moderate-strong
Offshore

HALEIWA
Monday   04/20
NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
East Trades moderate-strong
fair

MAKAHA
Monday   04/20
NW SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
East Trades moderate
smooth

ALA MOANA
Monday   04/20
SSW+SSE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

Waikiki
Monday   04/20
SSW+SSE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
East Trades moderate-fresh
good

Diamond Head
Monday   04/20
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
East Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Sandy Beach
Monday   04/20
ENE+SSW
Haw: 2-3 occ 4
Face: 3-5 occ 7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

Makapuu
Monday   04/20
E-NE
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Maui

Hookipa
Monday   04/20
NW+NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
East Trades moderate-strong
wind blown conditons
gusty
Honolua
Monday   04/20
NW+NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
ENE Trades moderate-strong
wind blown conditons
windmills higher
Kihei
Monday   04/20
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-strong
diving , paddling and fishin'
sailin
Hana
Monday   04/20
E-NE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
ENE Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Lahaina
Monday   04/20
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades moderate
smooth

Kauai

Hanalei
Monday   04/20
NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades moderate
fair

Majors
Monday   04/20
NW SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
ENE Trades moderate
good

Poipu
Monday   04/20
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Kapaa
Monday   04/20
E-NE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Monday   04/20
E-NE
Haw: 2-4 occ 5
Face: 3-6 occ 8
ENE Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Kohala
Monday   04/20
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Monday   04/20
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
Offshore

Hilo
Monday   04/20
E-NE
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +
ENE Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Kau
Monday   04/20
COMBO
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Weather

April 3, 2015 5:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Trade wind speeds will ease slightly today, especially across the smaller islands, as a surface trough moves to a position north of Kauai. An increase in showers is expected through Saturday, especially over the windward Big Island, due to an area of enhanced tropical moisture spreading up from the southeast over the eastern end of the main Hawaiian island chain. Breezy trade wind weather is forecast to return later this weekend as a surface high strengthens to the northeast of the islands. Expect a somewhat typical springtime trade wind weather pattern early next week.

Discussion
The pressure gradient southwest of a nearly stationary 1033 mb surface high centered near 37°N 142°W, or more than 1400 miles northeast of Honolulu, is maintaining locally breezy trade winds across the eastern portion of the main Hawaiian island chain early this morning. However, a surface front located about 500 miles northwest of Lihue is moving slowly toward the northeast. The lower pressure associated with this feature is causing the winds over most of the western and central sections of the island chain to gradually weaken and shift to an east southeast direction.

Aloft, a mid-tropospheric trough is evident northwest of Kauai. This feature has caused a slight destabilization of the atmosphere near Kauai. However, moisture profiles from the early morning Lihue sounding and the latest satellite derived estimates of precipitable water /pw/ showed values of only about one inch in the vicinity of the smaller islands. There were scattered to locally broken low clouds and isolated showers mainly occuring over some windward and mauka sections of the smaller islands, while broken to overcast low clouds and scattered showers were near the windward Big Island.

The Hilo sounding showed slightly higher moisture values, with a PW of about 1.2 inches. However, an area of enhanced tropical moisture is currently evident about just south of the Big Island. The forecast models indicate this area will continue to spread up from the southeast over the eastern end of the main Hawaiian island chain today and tonight. Some of this enhanced moisture may also spread up over the smaller islands from later today and tonight into the weekend.

Output from the forecast models indicate the front northwest of Kauai will weaken to a surface trough later today or tonight when it moves to a position north of Kauai. Also, the mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward. The presence of these features will continue to slacken the pressure gradient across the area, leading to weaker east to east southeast flow over most of the smaller islands today. Parts of the Big Island may continue to see locally breezy trades today, with a slight decrease in wind speeds tonight.

The increased moisture combined with a slight destabilization of the atmosphere due to the mid-level trough will likely lead to increased showers especially over the windward Big Island from today into this weekend. The models also indicate there may be a modest increase in showers over portions of the smaller Hawaiian islands at the same time. There is also the potential for snow showers over the Big Island summits tonight and early Saturday morning, due to deeper moisture and the colder temperatures aloft associated with the mid-level trough.

During this weekend, the surface trough, as well as the associated mid-level trough are expected to lift north northeastward away from the islands. This should allow the pressure gradient to become reestablished over the area due to the surface high far northeast of the state becoming the dominate synoptic feature once again. This will lead to an increase of trade winds over the islands from this weekend into early next week. The global forecast models also continue to indicate a slightly drier air mass may spread across the area by early next week. Therefore, expect a somewhat typical springtime trade wind weather pattern across most of the island chain early next week.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture 4/10/15 Friday

NPAC
We now have 2 more tiny pulses of WNW to NW through the middle of April until a downgraded NW fills in Wednesday peaks Thursday the 16th and drops a lot by Friday the 17th. In fact, models started with 13’ 16 seconds open ocean Tuesday the 7th and have now gone to 7.5’ 15 seconds.

The Jet stream has moved far north off Japan with an East or zonal flow below the Aleutians. The highest winds are 140 Friday. There’s a bunch of blue showing the high pressure filling most of the pacific below the jet. By this Sunday the 12th she’s broken but has some amplified trough to our NW and off the Kurils. Then Monday a pulse of 160kt winds point ESE from off the Kurils. WW3 points to a nice Low developing here for sizable NNW surf filling Wed-Thursday.

Recent/Current: it’s been small but rideable. Then, a nice surprise with some 4’ sets Wed. eve at 14 sec at Sunset/Boneyards while plenty spots hitting 3’. The source was a fast paced storm tracking east off Kamchatka last Friday the 3rd up by the West Aleutians.

Next: Just back ground 2’ NW for Sunday then a 3’ push from the NNW peaking Monday.

Next: a broad area of weak 25kt winds near the dateline track east end of this week into the weekend. Models hint at a 3’ 12 sec NW filling late Tuesday the 14th. Surf should reach at least 3’ on Tax deadline day.

Next: Another downgrade on the initial models (Tuesday) as they now show a 5 feet smaller (Friday). A Low spawns Sunday far off the Kurils crossing the dateline Monday the 13th. It grows fast as it tracks fast east. WW3 now has seas up to 25’ (vs. 40') plus further away (1800 miles) than the first output (1000 miles) to our NNW. WW3 now give open swell of 7.5’ at 16 seconds which would still refract enough for 5-7’ surf Wednesday eve on top reefs and 6-8+ Thursday the 16th dropping to 6’ Friday at 15 seconds. Like we said Tuesday, “this outlook is still in the model fantasy stage so don’t give it full confidence yet”. Thus, as does occur more in Spring, models ran hot from first readings. Still, this episode is well above seasonal averages of maybe 3-5’.
Last: There’s a Low at the dateline with an East south-easterly track Thursday the 16th. By Friday she’s to our NNW so we can expect the same angle as the last event only smaller. Ww3 guestimates 6’ 15 seconds of swell Saturday the 18th which could mean some near 8’ surf at Sunset ‘if’ the reading hold. I’m going to guess this one may be downgraded but not to quite the degree as the prior storm.

SPAC:
The Jet down under looks lame for any real ground swell production. All in all it’s been zonal thus the long periods but small swell heights.There are a couple meridional flows but weak winds thus less support for surface lows.
Then late Saturday and esp Sunday the 12th there’s a rare deep long N trough in the Jet right up the Taz a couple day creating tons of fetch and surf for Fiji and finally us. More below.

The south shores got another mediocre pulse of 2’ SSW Wednesday-Friday with smaller 2’ swell Sunday-Tuesday. Then we lay low until the 16th when we may see chest high surf filling Thursday the 16th.
A huge Taz sea storm rounds out the long range picture starting late on Sunday the 19th and should last past Wednesday with a peak of 3’ maybe 4' from the SW to start and SSW to end. There’s some support from the straight south around the 20th. Here’s the details...

Recent/Current: tiny 2’ stuff from distant sources Tuesday to the SE of NZ. Some reefs refract and shoal long periods better than others.
Adding in with the tiny SSW will be some waist/chest SSE from a spinner under Tahiti a week ago.

Next: a broader but weaker fetch set up Friday 3rd Far East of NZ from the prior Low and will keep 2’ background S to SSW surf this weekend.

Next: The prior fetch moved east and intensified for a better fetch set up since it spun in place under Tahiti last weekend. A better chance of some near 2.5’ South at peak reefs later this weekend.

Next: Thursday the 9th models a small Low 900 miles off NZ with an ENE track. We can expect some surf up to chest high with 15 seconds filling Thursday the 16th.

Next A huge powerful Low tracks right up the Taz this weekend into Monday with near 35’ seas and 10-15’ maybe 18’ surf for Fiji Thursday the 16th. We’ll get a small fraction thanks to the cheese grating S Pac Islands. The storm reforms east of NZ Monday the 13th and spins off some swell trains from the SSW. Thus, a long lasting SW veering SSW with 16 seconds with surf filling Monday the 20th to easy 3' and surf peaking at near 4’ Tuesday, Wednesday 21-22nd. Forerunners hit late Sunday the 19th building into Monday and even Tuesday.
Last: Models longing out long show a storm to the SE of NZ Friday the 17th. So add 6-7 days and we should see forerunners late Thursday the 23rd peaking Friday-Saturday at 3’ or head high with 14-15 sec.

Windward: A new strong High is NNW spawned Wednesday so Thursday we saw a short lived burst of 15-30 trades thus wind swell ramped to 3’ solid but periods will be short thus not near as high or powerful as the recent event the weekend prior.
The long haul sees smaller typical waist high chop from this weekend onward.


















FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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