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Exclusive Obs: 650am. Thursday March 26, powered by: Surf n Sea's 50 Party

Moderate to fresh NE trades and pretty clear leeward. Small craft for channels. Tides flat.

North shore's new NNW is rising all day but bad winds. Town is fading but still super fun! Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Up and rising on the short period NNW. NW buoy (275 miles away) is 6' 11 sec. Surf is 2-3' + but crappy at Sunset thnks to the NE sideshores; Pipe/OTW up to 3' but poor shape; Rocky's area is 3'; Chuns 1-3' bumpy/broken lines; Watch for a peak of 5' this afternoon; fairly clear.
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West:

Up and rising on the new NNW at 2' and still some 3' sets on the SSW with long waits of nothingness at Makaha. Look for 4' sets this afternoon. Super clean & clear.
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Town:

Down and dropping on the 14 second SSW; surf is clean stiff offshore at 2-3' solid at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area 1-3' with possible plus sets near Diamond Head; clear.
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Diamond Head:

Down and dropping on the SSW at 2-3' on the sets with fair side offshores thnks to NE trades; mostly clear.
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Sandy's:

Down and dropping SSW at 2-3' sets Half and Full Pt. Not much sand bar so 'dumpers' still into Gas Chambers with stiff side offshores; fairly clear.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and rising on the E-NE trade at 1-2' mostly and maybe a plus set later; choppy with waves inside across the bay; fairly cloudy.

Weather

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 82°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 85°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 85°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 85°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 85°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph ENE

E-NE
10-25
small craft all waters
E-NE
10-20+

E-NE
10-20

E-NE
10-20+

E-NE
10-20

North

Friday
03/27
NW+NE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

Saturday
03/28
NW+NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping

Sunday
03/29
W-NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
small early; 2' 16 sec forerunners 8am; 6' surf early evening; 7' 15 sec 8pm
Monday
03/30
W-NW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
Dropping Slowly
7' 14 sec
Tuesday
03/31
W-NW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping
5' 12 sec
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West

Friday
03/27
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Dropping
NW+ SSW
Saturday
03/28
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping
+ SSW
Sunday
03/29
W-NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising
+ SSW; 4' late
Monday
03/30
W-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Dropping Slowly
+ SSW
Tuesday
03/31
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping
+ SSW
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South

Friday
03/27
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising Later
new SSE
Saturday
03/28
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding

Sunday
03/29
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding
.5' 16 sec
Monday
03/30
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Tuesday
03/31
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

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east

Friday
03/27
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Saturday
03/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Sunday
03/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Dropping

Monday
03/30
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Tuesday
03/31
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Friday   03/27
Primary: Dropping  S-SW  1-2' occ 3' surf at 13 sec
Secondary: Dropping  N-NW  2-4' surf with 10 sec
Third: Holding  E-NE  3' surf at 8 sec
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Marine Warnings:

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Sailing Report:

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Diving Report:

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Mar 15, 2015 5:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Trade winds will weaken today, with light and variable winds expected from late tonight through Wednesday. Mostly dry weather will continue through Wednesday, with just a slight chance of light showers. In addition, the air mass will gradually warm, and the recent run of unusually chilly weather will end. Trade winds will increase Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing increased windward showers. A breezy and relatively wet trade wind pattern will then persist into next weekend.

Discussion
High pressure centered about 650 miles NNW of Oahu will migrate steadily eastward over the next 12 to 36 hours, and become established far NE of the islands by Monday. An associated surface ridge extending westward from the high will be several hundred miles N of the islands by this evening, supporting a trade wind flow that will be gradually easing today and tonight. The ridge will move S to a position just N of Kauai by Monday, and a light wind pattern will develop over the islands and surrounding waters. The light winds will allow island-scale land and sea breezes to prevail.

The ridge will be shunted southward as a slow-moving front approaches the area from the NW. The light wind pattern will continue until Wednesday night/thursday, when a new high will build N of the area, bringing stronger trades for the latter half of the week into next weekend. The building high will push moisture associated with the weakening frontal boundary over the islands from the NE. With trade winds blowing, this moisture will favor windward areas, while the strong trades push some showers leeward on the smaller islands. Thus a windier and wetter trade wind pattern is expected from Thursday into next weekend.

In the meantime, the cold air advection of the past couple of days will end, and the air mass will gradually warm and moisten the next couple of days. However, a mid level ridge over the area will keep a strong lid on the island atmosphere, and keep shower chances rather low through Wednesday. With the trades blowing into tonight, a slight chance of night and morning showers will exist for windward areas. As winds weaken, there will be a slight chance of afternoon interior and leeward showers as sea breezes converge over the islands.

Aviation
Expect VFR conditions to prevail across the area thru 160400. Partial clearing expected from this large field of stable stratocu clouds /sc/ now covering the islands. Bases of these clds are btn 045 and 060 feet, well abv MVFR criteria. Also, brief spotty light rain or drizzle expected with tops running around 7k ft. The winds are down so no airmets expected thru at least 04Z.

Marine
The high surf advisory for exposed N and W facing shores has been cancelled, although surf along N facing shores will remain somewhat elevated this morning due to a slowly diminishing N swell. A couple of small WNW swells are possible Monday and Tuesday, with a moderate NNW swell possible from Wednesday into Friday. Resultant surf heights are expected to remain below advisory levels, with surf remaining below advisory levels along all shores through at least mid-week. Strong trade winds may cause wind waves to become large enough to warrant a high surf advisory for E facing shores later in the week.


Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture
3/13/15
NPAC
The Jet stream looks consolidated and zonal (west to east) from off Japan with high 200kt pockets to our NW. The nose of the Jet points down on the longitudes near Hawaii Nei leading to some weather and brisk NE winds. There’s been a large eddy in the Jet level to out NE allowing for ongoing Lows to spin off within it like a conveyor belt. Thus, we see our N swell with this latest being the biggest by far. The large upper air currents will weaken lots by midweek reducing the size probabilities of storms and thus swell.
Recent/Current: Way above seasonal average today with surf up to 18’ on the outer reefs but victory at sea. The Bay is cracking 10-15’ in the bowl but terrible conditions with only solo contenders. This will prevail for this episode thnks to the NNE winds.
Source: Tuesday’s charts showed a SE tracking Low with a 1-2 punch. Seas were over 25’ and by Thursday winds increased as the system neared; left over winds under 300 miles away Friday but not before pushing down some upgraded 10-18’ NNW surf with 15 seconds Friday the 13th… our lucky day. Saturday should still see some 12’ surf from a more northerly angle and winds are expected to be strong NE side onshore.
Next: Thnks to the zonal jet, our storms are moving east fast with no major fetches for us next week. There are a few to keep it ride-able. The first one is from a generic gale zone to our NNW this weekend which may send down some 3-5’ NW surf filling later Tuesday the 17th with light winds too and lasting into Wednesday!
Next: More weak winds off to our NW Tuesday may send down smaller 11 sec NW surf of 2-4’ Friday the 20th and keep it fun all weekend.
Next: A better shot spawns Wed the 18th of the Kurils and we get a partially captured fetch for less than a day as the Low tries for 22’ seas as it crosses the dateline Friday the 20th …Forerunners should hit Sunday the 22nd and the main thrust will be Monday with 5-7’ surf at 14 seconds. It’ll drop fast Tuesday onward.
Last: long ranger GFS output calls for a small 4-6’ NW the 28th but let’s wait and see.
SPAC:
Jetstream has 2 branches with the North having the highest winds and even points NNE this weekend from just under Tahiti.
Recent/Current: We have 2 sources for our small SW swells. A broad fetch in the Taz Thursday March 5th had models claiming a rise Thursday the 12th at 15 seconds. It’ll be a slow rise and inconsistent and only some spots reaching chest high. By Friday the SW was more filled in and esp by Saturday…this is from the highest 50kt phase of the storm in the Taz. Fiji was cranking 8-12’ Monday Tuesday. We’re hoping for a few 3’ sets Friday-Saturday the 13-14th. The other source is Cat 4 Cyclone Pam which is tearing through Vanuatu just west of Fiji with 155kts. http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/cyclone-pam-vanuatu-south-pacific
Pam tracked SSE slowly over 2400 miles away earlier this week and will weaken lots by the time she nears NZ. As for as surf for us the fetch on her west flank was always short but angular spreading could add some energy up to chest high into Tuesday.
Next: Another weaker Low in below the Taz could keep 2’ SW surf coming as background energy into the wkend of the 21st.
Last but not least: Pam ends up spinning off NZ most of the upcoming week as she merges with another system and they occlude Wednesday, stalling and broadening. This should lead to a long lasting above average SSW swell of 15 seconds Monday-Thursday 23-26th.
Windward: It’s all about the 2-4’ N swell wrapping in with the gusty NE winds but by Sunday winds, waves and weather mellow out. Then models reramp the Trades Thursday the 19th thus a fairly typical uptick to 3’…

















FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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