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Exclusive Obs: 640am Friday Feb 27, powered by: Cholos Happy Hour

Light/variables with an expected NW flow as an area of low pressure (trough) hangs over us all weekend. Wet weather coming into this weekend. 0.2' low at 8am.

Tiny NW and South and medium East. Next 8' NNW is Monday. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Down and dropping on the 10 sec NW (NW buoy 275 miles NW: 6' 10 sec, Waimea 3' 10 sec). Currently, it's a lully 1occ 2' at Sunset Pt, 1 maybe 2' at Pipe and Chuns, 0-2' for Haleiwa with smooth glass to lite offshores; mostly cloudy.
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West:

Down and dropping on the NW at 0-1'. Glassy dawn to Lite onshores later; partly clear.
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Town:

Rising on a small new 13 sec SW; surf is clean at 0-1.5' mostly with the occ weak 2' set at Bowls, Kaisers, the Beach Park. Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area is 0-1.5'. Super lite NE trades to onshores later and partly clear.
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Diamond Head:

Rising on a SSW + holding the small SE 0-1-2' & super clean with NE tilted trades; decent weather (see SNN Cam).
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Sandy's:

Up and Holding on the East swell and tiny SSW at 1-2' occ 3' out at Full Point and in the shorebreak with lite NE trades and smooth ; mostly cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Up and Holding from East trade angle at 2-3' on the left to the middle with surf on the right too. real decent and clean thanks to light winds with the usual clouds.

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 84°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
8mph N

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NNE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 84°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph NE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 84°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
28mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 82°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
28mph ENE

NE
10-25

NE
10-20

NE
10-20

NE
5-15

N-NE
10-20+

North

Saturday
02/28
NW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Sunday
03/01
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Monday
03/02
NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Rising
7' 14 sec
Tuesday
03/03
NW
Haw: 3-5+
Face: 5-9+
Dropping
6' 11 sec
Wednesday
03/04
W-NW
Haw: 4-6
Face: 6-10
Rising
4' 15 sec
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West

Saturday
02/28
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Sunday
03/01
NW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Monday
03/02
NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Rising

Tuesday
03/03
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

Wednesday
03/04
W-NW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Rising

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South

Saturday
02/28
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
1.5' 14 sec
Sunday
03/01
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping
1.5' 13 sec
Monday
03/02
SSE+SSW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Rising
1' 18 sec SSE
Tuesday
03/03
S-SE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Holding
2' 16 sec SSE
Wednesday
03/04
S-SE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Holding
2' 15 sec
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east

Saturday
02/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Dropping

Sunday
03/01
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Monday
03/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Tuesday
03/03
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
03/04
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

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Marine Warnings:

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Sailing Report:

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Diving Report:

Oahu

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Weather

Feb 26, 2015 3:43 AM HST

Synopsis
Winds will become light and variable over the smaller islands today, with southeast winds around the Big Island, as a surface trough settles over the state. The trough will remain near Kauai and Oahu tonight and Friday before drifting east during the weekend. The nearby trough will act to focus clouds and showers over the islands, and locally heavy rain will be possible from Friday night into the weekend as the atmosphere becomes increasingly moist and unstable. A rather unsettled wet trade wind pattern appears likely to continue from the weekend into next week.

Discussion
Shower activity has increased southeast of the Big Island and over the windward sections and adjacent waters of the smaller islands during the night. Rain gauge data show scattered mostly light amounts thus far, with a few gauges on Maui approaching a half inch of rain. Surface analysis depicts a weak trough near Maui, high pressure centered over the northeast Pacific, about 1700 miles NE of the state, and a stationary front about 300 miles NW of Kauai. The high to our northeast has been supporting trade winds across the state, but these are currently being disrupted by the local trough. Aloft, the region lies near a col point between ridges to the northeast and south, and troughs to the southeast and northwest. The 12Z Hilo sounding depicts increased moisture and an eroding inversion, with pwat up to 1.27 inches. The 12Z Lihue sounding remained drier and more stable, with an inversion based near 6000 feet and pwat of 1.14 inches.

A generally wet and unsettled pattern is shaping up across the state through the next several days, with a complex evolution of features occurring both at the surface and aloft. The surface trough will settle over the western half of the state today and tonight, with the remnants of the frontal band to our west drifting eastward and merging with the trough. This will greatly weaken trade winds across the state, with seabreezes likely developing across many areas this afternoon. The mid/upper level trough over the central Pacific will also drift slowly eastward during this time, with associated cooling aloft resulting in gradual destabilization over the islands. Ample moisture and instability will be in place, but with no apparent strong forcing and only weak low level convergence along the trough it is difficult to predict just how widespread shower activity will be. For now the existing forecast of generally scattered showers with highest rain chances windward and mauka seems reasonable.

The low level trough will drift slowly back eastward Friday through Saturday, with stronger northeast winds and a drier airmass edging into far western parts of the state. Cold temperatures aloft (ranging from -11C to -14C) should provide ample instability, which combined with plentiful moisture across most areas will yield an enhanced potential for some locally heavy downpours. Have added mention of locally heavy rains to the forecast for all areas except Kauai Friday night and Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but confidence remains too low to include in the forecast at this time.

The low level trough should edge to the east of the Big Island Saturday night or Sunday, allowing a wet trade wind pattern to develop over the state and persist into early next week. Continued troughing aloft over the central Pacific will maintain unusually cold mid level temperatures, suppressing the typical trade wind inversion. With model consensus maintaining above normal moisture over the state, locally heavy downpours and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible during this time. Have not added such wording to the forecast for the later periods beyond Saturday yet, but later shifts will need to consider doing so if current model trends persist. Highest rain chances should focus over windward areas, but with deeper than usual moisture in place would expect some showers to spill into leeward areas as well.

Aviation
Moist east to southeast flow will keep scattered SHRA moving across the islands over the next 24 hours. Predominantly VFR conditions are expected, but periods of MVFR cigs will be possible in -shra.

Airmet sierra is in effect for mtn obsc across Oahu, Molokai and Maui, with conditions likely to continue through mid to late morning. Airmets for mtn obsc may also be needed across some of the other islands later this morning.

Marine
Westerly swell continues to run around 6 feet and 14 seconds at Barbers Point buoy, and has been slow to subside during the night. We still expect this swell to decrease later on today, but high surf will remain possible across the west facing shores of the Big Island this morning, and have extended the high surf advisory for that area through noon. Elsewhere, short-period wind waves at windward buoys such as Pauwela north of Maui have increased during the past 24 hours in response to increased trade winds over and east of the islands. Although local winds will be diminishing today, the lingering fetch of E winds upstream of the islands will maintain elevated, but just below advisory- level, surf along E facing shores through Friday. Not much surf is expected through the weekend. A NNW swell is expected to arrive late Sunday, peak on Monday, and lower on Tuesday, with peak surf heights just below advisory levels along N facing shores. The latest Oahu surf discussion /srdhfo/ contains details on the sources of the swells.

The overnight ascat pass found winds of 15 to 20 kt across the coastal waters. With seas below 10 feet across the area, and winds expected to drop further today, the small craft advisory has been discontinued for all waters. Lighter winds will prevail today through Friday as a surface trough lingers over the islands. Trade winds should build back in across the state during the weekend into early next week, with some chance that winds may approach advisory levels across the windier zones.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory until noon HST today for west facing shores of the Big Island.



Broken clouds are clouds which cover between 6/10 and 9/10 of the sky while scattered clouds is a sky condition when between 1/10 and 5/10 of clouds are covered.
Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture
2/14/15
NPAC
The Jet stream is in full winter mode through next weekend the 21st. There are pockets of 200+ winds and the troughs are deep and past our longitude steering the storms right on top of us. Thus, we see the westerly and SW kona pattern most this month with nearby fetches from the Lows and the frontal winds. Though the large upper air currents weakened by midweek, the flow is still consolidated from Japan to Hawaii. There are Hints of a weaker pattern off Japan by Sunday the 22nd.
Recent/current: declining storm surf from the NW with 13 seconds with 6’ surf will be replaced by a very different event Sunday onward.
Next: A large ESE tracking Low Friday the 13th to our NNW gets a captured fetch and gets very close to us; this will pump up some 12-18’ ‘above’ warning level NNW surf Sunday peaking in the afternoon with light NE Trades. On Sunday the system weakens and tracks fast out of our window and thus the swell will drop fast Monday-Tuesday.
Next: A more normal pattern sets up for the next swell hitting Wednesday-Friday. The Low comes ESE off Japan Sunday and surf is generated from further away on the west side of the dateline; this allows for more manageable swell as the swell trains have time to ‘sort’ themselves out. The 1st phase is WNW as the Low keeps over 1500 miles away leading to some small 290-310 WNW of 3-5’ midday Wednesday.
Next: Then the same Low pushes East and hits the dateline late Tuesday getting up to 55kts, passes to our North and weakens Thursday about 600 miles away. WW3 hints at 8-10’ WNW Thursday with 15 seconds. It could build higher in the afternoon to 12’ and even 15’ possibly on Friday the 20th.
Last: no significant swell out through the end of Feb but we do see a 6’ WNW for Saturday the 28th.

SPAC:
The Jet has had an out of season Flow up toward Hawaii and there’s more Monday the 16th thru Wednesday. The Jet weakens after this with weak winds till Sunday the 22nd.
Recent/current: the West wrap last week hit easy 4’ and was better than expected. Then we have stormy kona wind swell from the fronts that have been passing through at up to 2 per week! Saturday see both the wind swell of 3’ and a SSW from NZ. No matter as the conditions are as bad they get. There are wave out there trying to reach 4’ but they’re broken to pieces.
Next: As the front passes the winds switch NE cleaning up waves for Sunday-Monday. The SSW will then be doable at 2-3’ Sunday and fade Monday on.
Next: a weak Low tracks up within the Jet early this coming week. Models hint that we’ll get another 3’ SSW Tuesday the 24th with 16 sec forerunners Monday. The swell should last into Thursday as it drops.
Next: Another storm with a ENE track up from NZ this Wed the 18th could push up some 3’ surf at 15 seconds Thursday-Friday the last week of Feb
Last: hints of more 3’ SSW surf early March.

Windward: The trades have only made brief weak appearances thanks to the regular Large and in charge Low’s near the Islands. So Trade swell has been tiny. No change is expected. The Wrap from the WNW-NNW swells has been far more significant.




















FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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