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Waves, Winds, Weather by Surfer, the Bar 645am Friday

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Gorgeous day on the way with filling 10-20 ENE trades. Towns dropped, country ramped.

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North Shore:

Up and holding: dawn shows the 13 second NW and a 9 sec North swell mix at 2-3' for most spots at Sunset, Rocky's, Chuns. It's smaller 1-2' at Pipe; about 3' at Laniakea & Ali'i rounds it out at 1-3'. Fair conditions but a little morning sickness/wobble.
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West:

Up and Holding at Makaha at a glassy to lite offshore trades and 1-2' from the new NW+ dying SSW. Slightly bumpy but decent.
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Town:

Down and dropping from yesterdays mysto surge of easy 4' for select spots. Today is just 1-2.5' sets at Ala Moana-Kaisers & Beach Park are seeing the 13 second SSW and they might be left over 3' sets here or there; some morning sickness but still decent offshores.
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Diamond Head:

Down quite a bit and holding the 13 second SSW with sets at 1-2 occ 3' with slightly bumpy side off ENE trades on it.
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Sandy's:

Holding the 2-3' solid SSW and down on the North with w/a mix of 2' trade swell with nice side offshore NE 10-20 trades. Half Pt looking good.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on a North and onshore East swell at semi bumpy 1-2' breakin' inside and at Keiki's.

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 86°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph E

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 86°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 85°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 85°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph ENE

North

Saturday
10/25
NW+N
Haw: 1-3 occ +
Face: 2-5 occ +
Rising Later

Sunday
10/26
NW+N
Haw: 2-4 occ +
Face: 3-7 occ +
Rising
isolated
Monday
10/27
N-NE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Dropping

Tuesday
10/28
NW+NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Wednesday
10/29
N-NW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising Later
4' 9 sec NNW evening
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West

Saturday
10/25
NW SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising Later
+ North
Sunday
10/26
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising
NNE
Monday
10/27
COMBO
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Tuesday
10/28
MIX
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
10/29
NW+S
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

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South

Saturday
10/25
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

Sunday
10/26
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

Monday
10/27
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Tuesday
10/28
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising Later
1' 16 sec
Wednesday
10/29
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

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east

Saturday
10/25
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Sunday
10/26
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Monday
10/27
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Tuesday
10/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
10/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Saturday   10/25
Primary: Rising  NW+N  2-3'
Secondary: Dropping  S-SW  1.5' 12 sec = 1-2.5' surf
Third: Holding  E-NE  1-2'
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Marine Warnings:

Saturday   10/25
None: extreme UV's so pack da Bull Frog
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Sailing Report:

Saturday   10/25
Fair as trades weaken
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Diving Report:

Saturday   10/25

Oahu

SUNSET
Saturday   10/25
NW+N
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

ROCKY POINT
Saturday   10/25
NW+N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Pipeline
Saturday   10/25
NW+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades light-moderate
fair

MAKAHA
Saturday   10/25
S+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light
good

ALA MOANA
Saturday   10/25
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Waikiki
Saturday   10/25
S+SSW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light-moderate
good

Diamond Head
Saturday   10/25
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Sandy Beach
Saturday   10/25
S+SSW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Makapuu
Saturday   10/25
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Maui

Hookipa
Saturday   10/25
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-3 occ +
Face: 2-5 occ +
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Honolua
Saturday   10/25
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light
good

Kihei
Saturday   10/25
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Hana
Saturday   10/25
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Lahaina
Saturday   10/25
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades very light
smooth

Kauai

Hanalei
Saturday   10/25
NW+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades light-moderate
good

Majors
Saturday   10/25
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light-moderate
good

Poipu
Saturday   10/25
S-SW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light-moderate
good

Kapaa
Saturday   10/25
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Saturday   10/25
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Kohala
Saturday   10/25
N-NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades light-moderate
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Saturday   10/25
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light
smooth

Hilo
Saturday   10/25
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light-moderate
bumpy

Kau
Saturday   10/25
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Weather

Oct 22, 2014 3:30 PM HST

Synopsis
Light to moderate easterly southeasterly flow will continue tonight with showers focusing over windward and mauka areas. Clouds and showers from earlier sea breeze convection will linger around leeward and interior areas of the smaller islands through early this evening. A high building far north of the islands will bring moderate trade winds Thursday and Friday with showers focusing over windward and mauka areas. Winds will again weaken and shift to the east southeast over the weekend as a front approaches from the northwest.

Discussion
An e-w oriented sfc ridge remains located far NE of the aloha state, while tropical storm Ana gradually approaches the French Frigate Shoals from the S. This synoptic scenario is keeping a rather light to moderate e/se wind pattern across the island chain through tonight.

A relatively stable but moist airmass along with the SE flow are bringing scattered to numerous passing showers over most of the smaller islands, with pwats hovering between 1.5 and 1.7 inches. Moisture advection from an old boundary just E of the islands will keep feeding windward and mountain showers, while sea breeze circulations bring cloud cover and showers over leeward and interior areas through early this evening.

On Oahu, showers and the heaviest rain focused over the Koolau range, the area of Manoa valley, the Honolulu metro area and Pearl City during the afternoon hours. On Maui county, the heaviest showers were affecting W Molokai, windward Maui and E Lanai. Rainfall accumulations remain generally light to moderate, but isolated higher amounts are possible with the heaviest showers.

The Big Island will keep providing some blocking of the prevailing SE flow tonight with stronger flow over the NE and SE Big Island areas, and lighter winds around the smaller islands.

For the rest of the work week, models remain in good agreement in depicting a gradual strengthening of the aforementioned sfc ridge far NE of the aloha state, bringing a stronger trade wind regime Thu and Fri. This will shift shower activity back to mainly windward and mauka areas, and drier conditions over leeward areas. But this solution will be short-lived as a frontal boundary approaches the area from the NW, weakening the ridge and pushing it further to the S. This will bring back the lighter SE flow across the islands with another round of stronger sea breezes and afternoon showers favoring leeward and interior areas during the upcoming weekend.

Aviation
An area of enhanced moisture moving across the state this afternoon and tonight will continue to produce widespread cloudiness and above normal shower activity. Periods of MVFR conditions and mountain obscuration will be likely across many areas of the smaller islands as well as on the windward Big Island, and airmet sierra is in effect. Trade winds along with a drier airmass will return to the state on Thursday, with VFR conditions prevailing.

Marine
The north swell will continue to decrease through tonight. Then two other small north northwest swells are expected to arrive on Thursday and Saturday respectively. Surf from these swells should remain below the advisory levels at north and west facing shores. Only small surf is expected at south and east facing shores.

Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels through the forecast period.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
None.

All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

BIG SURF PICTURE
10/23/14 Wednesday

NPAC
The Jet stream will be missing all the right ingredients for swell enhancement and ‘proper pointing’ over the next week leading to below average surf production so no big surf until Nov 2nd. Today the trough is off to the NE and zonal pointing to the west coast and a new high pressure to our NW off Japan is blocking & pushing the Jet NE up along the Kurils into the Bering Sea. By Saturday it looks like summer with winds under 100mph. We don’t see any troughs until Tuesday the 28th off Japan. But the Highs are still firmly slotted making the now 160kt jet point N again and loop east above the Aleutians.
Recent- Currently: The long spell of big 9’ NW from last weekend to 8’ NNW this earlier this week is now is in its final stages as a 3’ N swell…and only for Laniakea and select other N refracting reefs. This whole sequence is on the local swell tracker video from Monday. Check it out. The source was Vongfong (former typhoon) merging with a Low in the NW then tracking East into the Gulf from Wed the 15th through Sunday the 19th: A good run.
Next: some fetch moved up along the Aleutians last weekend into Tuesday sending us ‘sideband’ swell and most its size NE of us. WW3 shows a small 13-15 second NNW filling Thursday with surf reaching 2-4’ in the afternoon. And fading Friday from 2-4’ to 3’ later and veering North.
Next: A fetch of winds coming SE from above the eastern Aleutians will add some 2-3+’ support Saturday from the N at 14 seconds. Sunday, this source gets some higher winds and gets nearer tho’ sill point off to the NE. Watch for some 3-5’ NNE Sunday for select spots. Trades will be east and light = good texture. This drops off to 2-4’ max Monday.
Next: A storm spins up just east of the dateline tues-Thur but the winds are light and short lived. There’s also ANA out there. We may see some 2’ WNW with just 11 seconds this weekend adding feebly to the NNE.
Next: mostly just weak and way below seasonals…a NNE swell toward the end of Oct. This is from Ana retracing to the N and small storms in the gulf.
Last: We’re hoping the WW3 fantasy of some good size NW surf 11/2 come true. A low centered in the Okhotsk sea (east of Kamchatka and the Bering sea) hints of a fetch coming into the scene Oct 28th in the 300-320 band. It’s too early to claim. Only a heads up but for sure can claim that the HIC Pro will take this one no matter what at Sunset Beach.

SPAC:
The Jet down under has 2 branches with the one above NZL strongest but we don’t get Low pressures from here. The South branch is weak and zonal today but it has had some luck with a few tilts NE allowing us to keep riding into winter…in town. One small flow occurs from Friday. Another occurs this Monday. Then it goes quite.
Recent-current: Above seasonal. It’s 1-2.5’ and clean good fun with lite trades. She came from a Low to the far east of NZL the 14th
Next: A fetch to the SE of NZL shows up today nosing to the top of NZL and should allow us more town fun from the SSW filling Wed the 29th peaking 2.5’ Thursday or chest high.
Last: Yet another fetch of 20-30kts flows up the east coast tracking east Oct 27-28th. On Saturday Nov 2nd we could see more chest high sets for a day from the SSW with 14 seconds.
Windward side: tiny 1-2+’ back ground Trade swell mixing with tiny North wrap; minor variations over the coming 7 days.
Tropics: No storms of interest.


FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

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