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Partly clear skies. Surf way down with moderate to fresh to strong ENE Trades. Carissa Moore becomes the first Hawaiian to Win The Target Women's Pro at Honolua Bay allowing Stephanie Gilmore to win her 6th World Title! The Vans Triple Crown's 2nd Jewel The Vans World Cup at Sunset is Off as surfs just 3-4 occas. 5' but wrong angle.

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North Shore:

Down and holding from a 6' NNE 'swell' @ 13 sec with semi bumpy, wonky 'surf' at 2-4+' at Sunset and Rocky pt., 2-3' at Pipe & Chuns & Ali'i. Laniakea is 3-5' handling the angle ok. Fairly clear.
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West:

Holding on the NNE @ a clean offshore 1-2 maybe occ. 3' at Makaha and mostly clear.
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Town:

Down and Holding tiny 10 second SSW pushing up some clean offshore 0-1.5' with off and on 2' sets at Bowls, Beach Park, Queens. Partly clear.
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Diamond Head:

Holding background SSE+SSW swells of 0-1-2', slightly bumpy side offshores. Partly clear.
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Sandy's:

Up and Holding on the NNE wrap and some ENE swell with semi fair 1-3' occ higher' sets from Full Pt,, 1/2 point and a couple smaller peaks into Gas Chambers breaking close to shore and slamming; mostly cloudy,
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East Makapu'u:

Up and holding on NNE and some ENE trade swell with onshore chop @ 2-4' mostly on the right side and smaller on the left; cloudy and cold dawn.

Weather

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 81°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 81°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
28mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 81°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
23mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 81°F

Clear

Wind:
23mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 81°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph ENE

North

Friday
11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-6
Face: 5-10
Holding
6' 13 sec NNE
Saturday
11/29
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Dropping
5' 13 sec
Sunday
11/30
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding
5' 12 sec
Monday
12/01
W-NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Rising Later
5-7' 3pm
Tuesday
12/02
W-NW
Haw: 8-10+
Face: 12-18+
Rising
1-' 15 sec
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West

Friday
11/28
N-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Saturday
11/29
N-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Sunday
11/30
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

Monday
12/01
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising Evening

Tuesday
12/02
W-NW
Haw: 6-8
Face: 10-15
Rising

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South

Friday
11/28
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Dropping

Saturday
11/29
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Rising

Sunday
11/30
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Holding

Monday
12/01
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Tuesday
12/02
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

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east

Friday
11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Holding

Saturday
11/29
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Holding

Sunday
11/30
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping

Monday
12/01
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Tuesday
12/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

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Current Swells:

Friday   11/28
Primary: Dropping  N-NE  2-4'
Secondary: Holding  ENE+NNE  2-4'
Third: Holding  SW+SSW  0-2'
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Marine Warnings:

Friday   11/28
small craft adv for all waters; High surf adv for NE and East shores.
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Sailing Report:

Friday   11/28
Good with 15-30mph ENE
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Diving Report:

Friday   11/28
Good for south and for deeper west, poor to fair for deeper North and East shore dives

Oahu

SUNSET
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy
bigger for isolated reefs
ROCKY POINT
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Pipeline
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
poor to fair
bigger for isolated reefs
HALEIWA
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

MAKAHA
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

ALA MOANA
Friday   11/28
SW+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

Waikiki
Friday   11/28
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fairly clean

Diamond Head
Friday   11/28
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-strong
slightly bumpy

Sandy Beach
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Makapuu
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 3-4+
Face: 5-7+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
bumpy

Honolua
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Kihei
Friday   11/28
S
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-strong
sailin' and kitin'

Hana
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
ENE Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Lahaina
Friday   11/28
SW+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair

Majors
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate-strong
good

Poipu
Friday   11/28
SSE+SSW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Kapaa
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
sloppy and choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Friday   11/28
S+SSW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades very light
rainy, stormy

Kohala
Friday   11/28
NNW+NNE
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
ENE Trades moderate-strong
fair to good

Kona
Friday   11/28
SW+SSW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Hilo
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
sloppy and choppy

Kau
Friday   11/28
ENE+NNE
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
ENE Trades moderate-strong
choppy

Weather

Nov 27, 2014 3:32 AM HST

Synopsis
A rather dry trade wind pattern will prevail across most of the state through the next couple of days, but lingering low level moisture will continue to generate scattered shower activity across windward portions of the Big Island and Maui. Surface high pressure north of the islands will drive strong trade winds across the state through the end of this week and into the weekend. Trades should slacken a bit early next week, with showers remaining focused mainly across windward areas.

Discussion
Breezy and rather dry conditions have continued across most of the state overnight. Some areas on the windward Big Island and on the windward slopes of Haleakala continue to receive measurable rainfall amounts, with trace amounts being recorded at some of the windward stations on Molokai and Oahu. Surface analysis depicts a 1028 mb high centered 1200 miles NNW of Kauai, with fresh to locally strong trade wind flow prevailing over the main Hawaiian islands. The 12Z Lihue sounding found a dry and very stable profile, with a strong inversion based near 5000 feet and pwat of only 0.76 inches. The 12Z Hilo sounding reflected the slightly deeper moisture lingering near the Big Island, with an inversion based around 6500 feet and pwat of 1.10 inches. Mimic- tpw satellite imagery depicts a dry atmosphere around and north of the islands, with deeper tropical moisture confined well to the south of the Big Island.

A breezy, stable and mainly dry trade wind pattern will prevail through the next several days. The surface high initially to our NNW is forecast to build slowly eastward to the north of the state between 30°N and 40°N through the rest of this week and into the weekend. Breezy conditions will be widespread over land areas during this time as fresh to strong trade winds prevail. The high resolution uh-wrf model is depicting sustained winds of 25 knots or greater across parts of the Big Island today, and recent obs show winds already near advisory criteria at times on Lanai. A wind advisory has been issued for parts of Maui county and the Big Island through 6 pm today. If winds verify today as models indicate, this advisory would likely need to be extended through at least Friday.

Otherwise, showers will be mainly confined to windward and mauka areas through the weekend, with the best rain chances remaining across the windward Big Island. Blended model data keeps pwats near or below one inch (below the 25th percentile for this time of year). Therefore would expect rainfall amounts to remain mostly on the light side.

Trade winds should slacken a bit early next week, as the surface high to our north weakens. A modest increase in low level moisture may take place, and a very weak front or shear line may pass through the state around next Wednesday. With the added moisture windward/mauka showers could increase somewhat, but overall do not expect any major changes to the weather pattern.

Aviation
Fresh and gusty trade winds will continue for the next several periods. Wind speeds in some areas are likely to exceed 20 to 25 kt with higher gusts, especially over mountain ridges and through valleys. Airmet tango for low level turb is expected to remain posted during this time.

Early morning soundings show a strong low level inversion between 5 and 6 kft. Precipitable water amounts range from 0.76 inches in Lihue to 1.1 inches in Hilo. Windward showers overnight have been slightly more active over the eastern islands, but all in all have remained fairly shallow. Conditions should remain similar, with VFR throughout Thanksgiving day.

Marine
North-northeast swell appears to have peaked at the Waimea bay and Pauwela cdip buoys, but continues to run above wavewatch guidance. This swell is forecast to gradually subside through today, but given observation trends will maintain the existing high surf advisory for north and east facing shores through 6 pm. The large NNE swell may also cause harbor surges within Kahului and Hilo harbors through today, and a marine weather statement has been issued.

A combination of lingering moderate NNE swell and short period wind waves driven by strong trades will maintain elevated surf across north and east facing shores from Friday through the weekend. There is a strong possibility that the high surf advisory will need to be extended for east facing shores beyond today.

The overnight ascat pass missed the Hawaiian coastal waters, but did find large areas of 25 knot winds well west and southwest of Kauai. The Wednesday morning ascat pass found 25 knot winds in the Alenuihaha channel and south of the Big Island, with winds near 20 knots in the kaiwi and Kauai channels. Trades have increased further since then with high pressure building north of the state, and the combination of wind waves and large NNE swell is still generating combined seas of 10 feet or higher across many areas. A small craft advisory /sca/ remains posted for all of the Hawaiian coastal waters. Sca conditions will likely continue for most of the waters through the rest of this week.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High surf advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for all north and east facing shores except for Lanai and Kahoolawe.

Wind advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for Lanai, Kahoolawe, Maui central valley, south Big Island, Big Island north and east, Kohala.

Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Saturday for Kauai northwest waters, Oahu leeward waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo channel, Alenuihaha channel, Big Island leeward waters, Big Island southeast waters.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm HST this evening for Kauai windward waters, Kauai leeward waters, Kauai channel, Oahu windward waters, Maui county windward waters, Maui county leeward waters, Big Island windward waters.





Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

11/18/14 Tuesday
NPAC
The Jet Stream wind current 30,000’ up has a zonal trough off Japan that also tracks quickly east all week. This steers storms fast from west to east as the Jet extends all the way to the west coast. By Saturday there’s a split in the Jet near the dateline with more energy staring off Japan again as the Jet drops in latitude. So we should be looking a little better for the long haul.
Recent- Currently: We have a peaking 8-10’ NNW this afternoon with brisk side shore NE trades. This swell comes from 2 fetches. One was up near the Aleutians last Thur-Friday and though the winds were stronger the Low was more distant than the 2nd source which really kicked up the surf due to close proximity of under 1000 miles and 20’ seas Saturday. It’ll drop fast Tuesday as close-shorter period events often do.
Next: A couple of storms close together race east in the zonal Jet this past weekend. Most the swell is off to our NE but we’ll still get some 2-4+ NW waves Wed. @ 14 seconds.

Next: Storm #2 spawned Sunday with up to 20’ seas but stayed further away. Watch for 3-5+’ NW surf Thursday.

Next: A storm forms near the date racing east building by Thursday to our North. We miss most its power but WW3 projects 7’ swell @ 15 sec Sunday which would refract/shoal on country reefs up 8’ minimum. I believe it’s being overcalled. So go with 50/50 for now.

Next: Friday another fast moving Low pressure area is 1500 miles to our N but the area of storminess is broad. We should see energy added to the prior episode holding waves in the 5-8’ range Monday.

Next: Another Low producing 20’ seas forms west of the dateline this weekend and with a much better SE track moving our way Sat-Sunday. If all goes well it could keep the surf 6-8’ with 14 seconds Tuesday.

Last: yet another eastbound Low is nearing and crossing the dateline Monday the 24th. WW3 hints of 6’ 15 seconds Friday which seems delayed by a day or two. Long range forecasts are subject to greater changes.


SPAC:
The Jet : We’re still getting semi lucky with background swells well past mid Nov. Currently, the winds are broken with no potential for sea surface winds. But by Wed. we get a bend NNE tho’ it hugs NZL’s west coast before heading right over the Islands. We go quite for about 3-4 days. Then day 7 we get a bit of troughing on the East coast of NZL. So what we see happening are plenty 2’ swells from the SW to SSW when it could be flat to one.

Recent-current: tiny tiny the past several days but buoys popped Monday with 1’ 15 seconds on the Taz fetch from last Tuesday the 11th. Surf picked up Monday and will be very inconsistently 2’ for top zones into Thursday. Fiji cranked on this storm but for us there’s too many obstacles in the way (Fiji, Samoa and hey, even NZL).

Next: Another Taz Low Tuesday the 18th slams into NZL and it’s not likely more than thigh surf @ 15 sec will be felt locally Thursday the 25th.

Last: Friday the 21st shows a Low moving East under the southern Tip of NZL. This is so far out its tough to claim but we’ll go ahead with a 2’ SSW Saturday the 29th.

Windward side: Recently we’ve had Small back ground 1-2’ East swell with some 2’ N mixing in from recent country swells. Surf will ramping up Wednesday thanks to the High NNE of us strengthening for a day with winds up to 30mph. Surf should hit 2-3’ and subside into this weekend. The Jet drops this weekend allowing storms to get closer and cut trades down and therefore windswell will be at a minimum.

Tropics: No activity in the Tropics.






FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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