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7am OBs Tuesday 2/8 powered by Surfer, the Bar

Super clear & dry with cold 60 degress NE Trades early today. Small craft Advsrys and High surf Warnings tonight for NW facing shores.

NW & Hanalei Buoy Popped .5' 25 sec. Lets the build begin. BIG PICTURE UPDATED Monday. N-NW swell tops it today. GIANT NW swell builds fast Wednesday. New SSW. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Way down and dropping on the N-NW at 5' 13 sec 'swell'. Sunset Pt is 4-6' and decent, much improved & Pipe is a clean 3-5'; Chuns is 3-5' but wrong angle; light side offshores and clear skies.
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West:

Way down and dropping on the N-NW with Surf hitting 3-5' on the Bowl and Middle at Makaha super smooth with offshores NE trades and good shape; clear.
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Town:

Up and rising on a new 15 sec SSW from Kaisers to Kewalos 0-1 occ 2' and same for Queens/Canoes with sets per 20-30 minutes; nice smooth conditions and lite offshores; clear.
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Diamond Head:

Up a hair and rising SSW at 0-1.5' occ 2' sets and smooth at Right hands/Cliffs/Lite House with clear skies.
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Sandy's:

Holding mostly small North wrap, barely visible East and South at 1-2 occ 3' for Full Pt-Half and 2' into middles to Chambers and better shape than Makapu'u; smooth offshores and clear.
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East Makapu'u:

Down and Holding at Makapu'u with North wrap at 1-2 maybe higher' toward Keiki's but closing out with light onshores and clear skies.

Weather

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
67°F
max: 85°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph SSW

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 87°F

Clear

Wind:
8mph ENE

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 87°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
71°F
max: 88°F

Clear

Wind:
18mph E

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 87°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph ESE

Range:
5-15mph NE
veering variable/seabrz
Range:
10-20mph E-NE

Range:
5-10mph E-NE
veering variable
Range:
5-10mph Light/Var
afternoon seabrz
Range:
5-15mph E-NE

North

Wednesday
02/10
N-NW
Haw: 15-25
Face: 20-40
Rising
30' plus afternoon: 4' 22 sec 2a, 12' 20 sec 8a, 20' 18 sec 8p
Thursday
02/11
N-NW
Haw: 15-25+
Face: 20-40+
Dropping
16' 16 sec
Friday
02/12
N-NW
Haw: 12-18
Face: 18-30
Dropping
12' 15 sec
Saturday
02/13
N-NW
Haw: 10-12+
Face: 15-20+
Dropping

Sunday
02/14
NW
Haw: 10-12+
Face: 15-20+
Rising
10' 16 sec
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West

Wednesday
02/10
N-NW
Haw: 15-20+
Face: 20-35
Rising
peaking 25' afternoon
Thursday
02/11
N-NW
Haw: 15-20
Face: 20-35
Holding

Friday
02/12
N-NW
Haw: 10-15
Face: 15-25’
Dropping

Saturday
02/13
NW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18
Rising Later

Sunday
02/14
NW
Haw: 8-12
Face: 14-20
Holding

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South

Wednesday
02/10
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding
1.5' 14 sec + 4' WNW wrap later
Thursday
02/11
S-SW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Dropping
1.5' 12 sec + 4' WNW wrap
Friday
02/12
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
.7' 16 sec (trace ground swell); + 3' WNW wrap
Saturday
02/13
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Holding

Sunday
02/14
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Holding

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east

Wednesday
02/10
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising Later
isolatd 5' NNW wrap
Thursday
02/11
ENE+N
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising
isolated 5' N wrap
Friday
02/12
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding
isolated 3' N wrap
Saturday
02/13
ENE+N
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping
isolated N wrap
Sunday
02/14
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Wednesday   02/10
Primary: Rising  NW  15-20+' surf morning to 30' afternoon at 18 sec
Secondary: Holding  ENE+N  2-3' surf at 8 sec
Third: Holding  S-SW  1-2+' surf at 14 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Wednesday   02/10
Small craft Advsrys and High Surf Warnings thru Friday dawn
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Sailing Report:

Wednesday   02/10
Fair with light NE trades and clear
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Diving Report:

Wednesday   02/10
Good-Safe for South; CODE BLACK/Poor for North and West dives; even adjacent shores out poor/dangerous; poor/fair for isolated East shores

Oahu

Makapuu
Wednesday   02/10
N
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
North winds
fair to good
15' toward Kahuku

Maui

Kauai

Big Island

Kohala
Wednesday   02/10
N-NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades light
smooth
Bigger later
Kona
Wednesday   02/10
NNW+SSW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Trades very light
smooth

Hilo
Wednesday   02/10
ENE+N
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades light
good

Kau
Wednesday   02/10
COMBO
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Trades light
good

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

Big Picture

Monday 2/8/16

NPAC:
The El Nino jetstream has been producing. It’s low and consolidated off Japan from 25-40 N lat (normally sitting over 600 miles N). Pockets of 200+ kts and flows beyond longitudes of Hawaii with a break near the end of this 7 day forecast period It’s been supporting the growth of solid surface Lows and steering them close to us for about 9 classic big swells for El Nino. Over this past weekend the jet takes a new shape with an NE tilt up from Japan to a Dip down right toward Hawaii by Sunday 2/7 leading to a frontal passage and N wind pattern change. It won’t last long.

Recent and current: The next fetch popped up to close our N late Friday and it’s smaller than first model output. It’s a compact Low centered just 1200 miles to our N and racing ENE Saturday out of our window for a still sizeable, short interval NNW-N. WW3 downgraded to 8’ 11 sec swells equaling 6-8’ NNW for midday Sunday the 7th. North Winds won’t be good at all. This will be storm surf thanks to a frontal passage.

Next: there’s a ‘Child’ low within the above complex parent that merged tracking SE towards us this weekend with a partially captured fetch pulsing a new 14 sec NNW approx 6-8+’ Monday eve into Tuesday.


Next: The BIG ONE. Though Models backed down on the GIANT NW-NNW slated for Wed-Friday that’s Ok it’s still going to be HUGE. The Low pressure deepened fast this past weekend; it began formation nearing the dateline this Sunday and intensifying with 40-50’ seas by Monday as it now tracks more East at first then ESE (earlier runs had a better captured fetch). By Tuesday ‘current’ model have this BIG storm broadening and nosing to within 900 miles thru Wednesday as the storm weakens and tracks out of our window Thursday. This one’s about 500 miles further away than the last GIANT WNW. So, swell decay/dispersion will be greater. Original models fantasy had 20-23’ swells at 18-20sec; now it’s peaking at 18-20’ at 16-18 sec but it will still be another GIANT level but from a NNW vs WNW. Some of this Low’s energy is off to our NE if you can imagine that.


Wednesday will rise rapidly with very long 22 sec periods in the predawn. 14’ 18 sec at 8am will mean solid 20’ in the first dawn hours. WW3 has it peak at 20’ 18 sec at 2pm which means by late morning we should have some 25’ sets and then 30’ sets solid in the afternoon into the nite. The fetch was long so it will be a slow decline Thursday in the 15-20’ occ left over higher. The Bay should reach its max size with faces reaching 40’. And Peahi could hit 55’ faces. Eddie Will GO. Eddie Will Score.

Last: A big Low tracks E to ESE off the Kuril Islands Thursday the 11th reaching the dateline Friday with 30’ seas. Over the weekend of the 13th the storm is nosing to 5-600 miles to the NW. Plus, there’s some follow up Low’s within the complex parent low adding some support as the 2 areas split. This will lead to warning level WNW to NW surf Sunday for Valentines and lasting thru Tuesday which is rare. It’ll drop to 8-12’ by Wed the 17th.

SPAC:
The Jet down under is actually conducive to some SSW swell development. The Flow is ENE all week and almost N pointing by week’s end. The southern branch goes zonal by Friday. It really weakens after that with little to no surface low potential.

Recent and current: It’s been tiny with mostly NW wrap trying to occas. give what’s been missing. Trace background thigh high surf is all we’ve had with a few exceptional 2’ sets.

Next: A low moves ENE within the Jet flow mentioned Tues 2/2-Thurs as it veers east out of our window. So we can only expect 2’ maybe 2.5’ surf from the SSW-S around Tuesday-Thursday at 14 seconds.

Next: a fairly big Low comes out from under NZL Friday the 5th and doesn’t have much of an extended fetch so we’ll only see 1’ of SSW swell at 16 seconds Friday the 12th or 2’ surf.

Long Range: That’s about it for now. Occasional lows moving within the off and on zonal jet through the period.


Windward: Tiny trade swells under 2’ with N wrap over riding all other sources.

Tropics: Nothing.




















Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4+ local) 15 Feet (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)


Please visit the Central Pacific Hurricane Center website at www.weather.gov/cphc for the most recent bulletins.

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Dolores Enrique Felicia
Guillermo Hilda Ignacio Jimena Kevin Linda
Marty Nora Olaf Patricia Rick Sandra
Terry Vivian Waldo Xina York Zelda

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