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Obs: 615am Sunday 5/24 Powered by: The Local Motion Surf into Summer

Mostly cloudy dawn with light-moderate NE Trades.

Three SSW swells overlap; N-NNW holding and East is holding. Local Swell Tracker updated. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF.

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North Shore:

Holding on the 9 sec N swell (NW buoy: 5' 10 sec N). Surf is currently 2-3+' average at Sunset Pt. and Rocky Pt. while Pipe is a funky 2-3' but poor/closing, to Chuns is 2-3+' but we already have sideshore bump from the NE trades on it; mostly cloudy.
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West:

Up and slowly rising on the next new SW-SSW at 1-2' with 3' sets and some 3' combo NNW for Makaha & lite offshores; waves are deep on the reef and some NNW down the middle; clean & cloudy.
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Town:

Up on combo SW-SSW swells. Down on the 1st 13 sec SSW, Holding on the 2nd 16 sec SSW and rising on the 20 sec SW, plus, there's a 10 sec SSE in the water. Surf's 2-3 maybe an odd plus' set later at Bowls, Kaisers. Long fat lines with good shape. We have up to 2-3' mostly along the Beach Park (waist/chest/head high) same for Waikiki, Queens/Canoes area with real nice smooth offshores; mostly cloudy.
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Diamond Head:

Up and slowly rising; there's 4 swells out there: 13-20 sec SSW's with some added SSE mixing at 2-3' maybe plus a with good shape,long lines and nice smooth texture; crowded and cloudy.
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Sandy's:

Up and holding on the multiple SSW's and holding on the ENE trade wind swell @ 2-3' occ 4' sets; some hollow ones at Half Point and half; Pipelittles; generals cracking every so often and good from from middle peaks to Chambers with super clean light offshores; mostly cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on the E trade and up on the small N swell and currently at 0-1 maybe barely 2' and no outside sets; left to middle to left at Keikis; lite-moderate NE onshores and cloudy.

Weather

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
67°F
max: 81°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph NNE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
69°F
max: 83°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph NE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
68°F
max: 81°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
3mph NNE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
69°F
max: 84°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph E

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 85°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph ENE

NE
10-20

NE
5-15

N-NE
5-15+

Light/Var
5-10
seabreezes
NE
5-15

North

Sunday
05/24
N
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Dropping
6' 9 sec; cloudy, funky sideshore
Monday
05/25
COMBO
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising
N+Former Typhoon Dolphin
Tuesday
05/26
W-NW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding
2' 13 sec
Wednesday
05/27
W-NW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Dropping

Thursday
05/28
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

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West

Sunday
05/24
COMBO
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising
3' NNW + 3' SSW; clean, cloudy
Monday
05/25
NW SSW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising
New WNW
Tuesday
05/26
NW SSW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
added SSW
Wednesday
05/27
NW SSW
Haw: 2-4+
Face: 3-7+
Holding
mostly SSW
Thursday
05/28
NW SSW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Dropping

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South

Sunday
05/24
SSW+SSE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising
2' 13 sec + 2' 16 + 1' 20 sec; clean, cloudy
Monday
05/25
S-SW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
3' 16 sec
Tuesday
05/26
S-SW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising
4' 15 sec
Wednesday
05/27
S-SW
Haw: 3-5
Face: 5-9
Rising
4' 14 sec + 1' 18 sec
Thursday
05/28
S-SW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Rising
3.5' 12 sec + 2' 16 sec SW
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east

Sunday
05/24
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Rising
fairly clean lite onshore; cloudy
Monday
05/25
ENE+NNE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Tuesday
05/26
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
05/27
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Thursday
05/28
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

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Current Swells:

Sunday   05/24
Primary: Rising  S-SW  2-3' surf at 2' 13 sec + 2' 16 sec + 1' 20 seconds +
Secondary: Holding  N  2-3+ surf at 10 sec
Third: Holding  E-NE  1-2' surf at 8 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Sunday   05/24
none
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Sailing Report:

Sunday   05/24
Fair to Good later with 10-20 mph NE
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Diving Report:

Sunday   05/24
Fair for deeper north and West. Fair for deeper south shores but SW swell, fair for east

Oahu

SUNSET
Sunday   05/24
N
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades light-moderate
Sideshore

ROCKY POINT
Sunday   05/24
N-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades light-moderate
fair

Pipeline
Sunday   05/24
N-NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades light-moderate
bumpy
funky
HALEIWA
Sunday   05/24
N-NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
NE Trades light-moderate
bumpy

MAKAHA
Sunday   05/24
NW SSW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades light-moderate
good to excellent

ALA MOANA
Sunday   05/24
SSW+SSE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades light
good to excellent

Waikiki
Sunday   05/24
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades light
good to excellent

Diamond Head
Sunday   05/24
SSW+SSE
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades light-moderate
good

Sandy Beach
Sunday   05/24
ENE+SSW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades light
good to excellent

Makapuu
Sunday   05/24
ENE+N
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
NE Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Maui

Hookipa
Sunday   05/24
COMBO
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
NE Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Honolua
Sunday   05/24
N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades light
fair to good

Kihei
Sunday   05/24
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
NE Trades light
diving , paddling and fishin'

Hana
Sunday   05/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades light-moderate
fair

Lahaina
Sunday   05/24
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades light
good to excellent

Kauai

Hanalei
Sunday   05/24
N-NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades light
fair

Majors
Sunday   05/24
NW SSW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
NE Trades light-moderate
good

Poipu
Sunday   05/24
S-SW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
NE Trades light
good

Kapaa
Sunday   05/24
ENE+N
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
NE Trades light-moderate
slightly bumpy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Sunday   05/24
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
NE Trades light-moderate
fair

Kohala
Sunday   05/24
N-NE
Haw: 0
Face: 0
NE Trades light
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Sunday   05/24
S-SW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
NE Trades light
good

Hilo
Sunday   05/24
ENE+N
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
NE Trades light-moderate
slightly bumpy

Kau
Sunday   05/24
COMBO
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
NE Trades light-moderate
smooth

Weather

May 19, 2015 4:00 AM HST

Synopsis
Another day or two of trade winds before they take a breather as a front approaches the main Hawaiian islands from the northwest. With the light and variable winds, mugginess will settle in for about two days before the cooling moderate trades return for the weekend. The front is expected to reach Kauai Friday evening, then dissipate as it moves down the island chain. Remnant moisture from this front is expected to get hung up over the windward coast of the Big Island over the weekend. Leeward Big Island will have some afternoon showers each afternoon.

Discussion
Relatively dry condition prevails across the main island Hawaiian islands for the exception of windward Big Island where passing showers persisted. Only within an hour, have these trade showers increased affecting the windward and mauka sections of the smaller islands. Models are showing an elongated east to west band of clouds aimed at the Big Island for the next couple of days.

So far the forecast is on track for diminishing trades and muggier conditions for the second half of the work week. The weakening trades is being brought upon by an approaching front from the northwest. This front is currently nearing Midway atoll which is located 1170 miles west northwest of Kauai. More info is available about this front in our high seas marine bulletin for the north Pacific. Once the light and variable winds settles in, daytime heating coupled with onshore sea breezes will result in locally cloudy skies over interior and leeward areas of the smaller islands. These clouds are slated to be heavier Friday afternoon for all islands with scattered showers, accentuated by a passing mid/upper level trough. The ECMWF is a bit more vigorous with this trough than the GFS, showing a cool pool of minus 9 c temp skirting the islands. The GFS has a much smaller area of cool air, staying well away from the islands.

A few hours later, early Friday evening, the front reaches Kauai, and then gradually falls apart thereafter as it works eastward. Upper level support for the front will have wane on Saturday as it out runs the front. Remnant moisture from it is expect to reach the Big Island Saturday evening. And there the moisture stays trapped until Monday as a shallow northeast wind flow keeps the moisture from going anywhere else. As the low level winds veers more easterly Monday, clearing skies will come to the windward coast of the Big Island.

The northeast winds following the front will usher in a slightly cooler air mass. Also, the strength of the northeast trades will be tempered with moderate speeds at best. This is due to a blocking, high amplitude high sitting off the west coast which will prevent the next high from approaching the main Hawaiian islands too fast.

The layer of high cirrus clouds will gradually thin out through this afternoon.

Aviation
Easterly trade flow will dominate through today, providing clouds and mainly light showers mostly the windward and mauka areas. The winds have diminished enough, allowing the cancellation of airmet tango. No airmets are in effect. Mvfr conditions may occasionally occur across windward sections, but VFR will dominate across the terminals today.

Marine
Small craft advisory /sca/ remains for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui. The SCA is set to expire at 6 am Wednesday.

A series of south swell will be reaching the islands through this weekend. The first of two is set to arrive this Thursday. The buoy down at american samoa started picking up on this swell Sunday and has remained steady at 6 to 7 feet and 13 seconds since. The second swell from the south is due in on Sunday. Surf from both these swells will be below advisory level for the south facing shores. A series of small NW swell will continue across the north facing shores the rest of this week. A moderate wind-driven short period swell along east facing shores will continue through today, then decline Wednesday through Friday as trades weaken. Please refer to the collaborative nearshore swell and wind forecast /srdhfo/ for more details.

Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small craft advisory until 6 am HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo and Alenuihaha channels, waters south of the Big Island.


Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Big Picture

Big Picture 5/20/15 Wednesday

NPAC
Surf synopsis: the above seasonal 13 sec NW filled Tuesday to solid 3’ and is down and fading today, but there’s more for the weekend. There’s tons of SW-SSW later Wednesday into next Wednesday. Trades finally take a break Thursday for a few days thanks to a front nearing and it’s already quite cloudy.

The Jet is doing well for the calendar/season. High pressures dominate off to our NE but we have enough troughing in the Jet to our NE to keep us going into next week. There’s a Jet dip off to our NE near the dateline steering one gale system across the dateline for Tuesday-Wednesday’s 3’ NW. The Jet helps a Front reach us Thursday cutting off the trades with some SE to Variables; this means a seabreeze pattern into Saturday when NE trades slowly return.
Along with this weather/wind regime change is a NNW swell with short 10 second surf hitting 2-4’ Saturday. All thanks to the Jet dipping NNE nosing 900 miles from us and amplifying a trough Wed-Thursday about 1200 miles away. By this weekend the Jet is zonal with troughing to our NW. The Jet stays below the Aleautians into next week as it weakens. Still, we may expect more tiny NW swell and even some WNW swell from Typhoon Dolphin (see below).

Recent/Current: We still have fun 2+’ NW waves that reached easy 3’ late Tuesday into Wednesday dawn but is down now to mostly 2’ from the above mentioned Low last weekend.

Next: A bigger 4’ NNW peaks Saturday set up from a storm near the dateline Monday-Wednesday. It’s a short period 10 sec and won’t give much power but it should be consistently overhead.

Also, an ENE tracking 30 kt Low to our NNE spawns Thursday nosing to within 600 miles thus pushing down some 2-3’ N to NNE swell Saturday dawn into Sunday.

Next: Super Typhoon Dolphin (last weekend) is weakening and staying off the coasts but hit Guam and nearby Islands as a weaker storm. It’s recurving this week into an extra tropical system (cold core) and sending off some small long period WNW to Hawaii. Some of it will be shadowed as its 270-290 (shadow is clear past 294). Still models claim some 1’ 18 sec WNW forerunners Sunday with some long lasting 2 maybe 3’ surf getting in Monday to Thursday at 14 sec average as it fades from there.

Last: Models have already downgraded a new Low forming off Japan Tuesday the 26th tracing East with an intial ‘hot’ forecast of 8’ 15 sec. It is now hinting of 6’ 14 sec which is still real good for May. The swell peaks later on Saturday the 30th to hts of 5-7’ and down to 4-6’ Sunday. IF all goes well with the model fantasy. By Thursday May 28th the system broadens and stalls near the dateline up near the Aleutians before taking a ESE track bring the fetch closer. This will likely need more shaving over time. But we’ll keep watching.

SPAC:
Surf synopsis: We’re heading into a super active phase from down-under leading to days and days of multiple SSW swells well into June. The first kicks in slowly Wednesday with overlapping events Saturday into Memorial Day and beyond. There are 6 total pulses.

The Jet has most the power in the Northern branch with some weak NE flow SE of NZ. It helps to feed the winds. Plus, the High to the East of the Low increases the pressure gradient between them setting up a nice fetch ‘conveyor belt’. Even this Thursday a fetch sets up under French Polynesia Tahiti. By Saturday the 23rd a meridional or NNE tilted (equator bound) jet moves into the East coast of NZ. Lotsa Lows begin in this area with the best Low pushing 30-40’ seas tracking NE from under NZ Sat-Monday 5/23-5/25 for big surf end of May and into June. There’s more reinforcing fetch Tuesday and thus a long lasting run of SSW swell is running up our way.

Recent/Current: Forerunners hit Wednesday at 18 sec and will back down to 15 sec as the swell hts ramp Thursday. We had Background surf of 2’ tops into the first half of Wednesday but the new lines are felt even with the fat high tides late in the day.

Next: The Taz storm filled the sea about a week ago 12-13th. She marched past the tip of NZ thus increasing our chances of SW surf. Normally this surf generation zone is even harder to predict thanks to NZ and Fiji shaving away the fetch and decreasing potential. We’re claiming solid 3’ sets Thursday into Friday with some overhead for top zones/tides. Plus, long lulls esp Wednesday evening and early Thursday. Winds will be sketchy after the dawn sessions with a sea breeze pattern until NE trades re-groom the leeward coast over the Holiday weekend esp by Sunday.

Next: A small gale far SSE of us last week should add 2.5’ SSE surf to the mix Wed into the weekend.

Next: The Taz Low above tracked east of NZ last Friday-Sunday 15-17th with a wide gale fetch to within 3000 miles and thus we can expect 2-4’ SSW surf with forerunners Saturday into Sunday when a bigger longer period episode builds to overhead as well.

Next: A big powerful 55kt 30-40’ Low pulls into position SE of NZ by Friday the 15th reaching south of Tahiti by Sunday the 17th. 18-20 sec forerunners hit Saturday with just 1.5’ of swell. But it will add to the preceding SSW. Late Saturday we should see some overhead sets esp the reefs that refract long periods. By Sunday it should level off to 3’ 16 sec. with surf hitting 4’ for top sets. Trades will be back and the Local Motion SIS will being scoring nicely.

Next: Another powerful 45-65kt Low tracks same as the preceding one with seas up to 40’ last Sunday the 17th. 22-24 second forerunners pop Saturday nite and surf should reach about 2-4’ late Sunday from this source. Again, we’ll have long lulls and tops 4’ only for deep water reefs into Memorial Day. Models suggest that Tuesday could see a peak of 3-5’ surf at 15 seconds. Solid 4’ maybe even 5’ could be still had as late as Wednesday the 27th.

Last: More storms SE of NZ this Friday the 22nd could bring up back to back swells with some 3’ SSW filling Thursday the 28th and 4’ SSW surf Friday the 29th and 4’ Saturday from storm #1. But if long range models pan out we’ll get a better shot of 5’ SSW surf Sunday into Tuesday (5/31-6/2).
Summers here already; no need wait for the 6/21 summer solstice.

Windward: We’ve had an unreal long run of brisk trades and east swell for about 2 months with minor variation. Look for this to change up esp Thursday-Saturday with a front disrupting the brisk trades. Surf will drop to 2’ then…things return to typical 1-2’ ENE trade swell from 10-20 Trades Sunday however, look for weaker trades to prevail all next week due to weaker than usual Highs moving into the area along with an unusually ‘low and deeper’ Jet for this time of year.

Tropics: Typhoon Dolphin will recurve and turn into a regular winter low this week bring small background WNW surf late this Monday-Thursday.
Tuesday: While a Category 1 equivalent typhoon, Dolphin passed about 80 miles west of Iwo To, Japan, known in the United States as Iwo Jima on May 19. A peak wind gust was clocked at 114 mph at 5:37 p.m. local time.
Western Pacific tropical cyclones, known as "typhoons" when reaching hurricane-equivalent status, can form any time of year, even in the heart of the northern hemisphere's winter. Super typhoons are cyclones that reach maximum sustained winds of 130 knots (150 mph) or greater.
Owing partially to this year-round calendar of potential development, roughly one-third of all the Earth's tropical cyclones form in the western Pacific Basin. On average, 25 tropical cyclones form each year in the western Pacific Basin, with 15-16 of those strengthening to Category 1 equivalent typhoons.

















FETCH: Often called the fetch length, is a term for the length of water or distance over which a given wind direction has blown. Fetch length along with the wind speed (or strength) determines the size of waves produced. The longer the fetch length and the faster the wind speed, the larger and stronger the wave will be and vice versa.
CAPTURED or FOLLOWING FETCH: Not only does the fetch length determine the power and energy of the wave. Additionally, if the winds/fetch are blowing in the same direction as during the wave's or storm's lifetime, the wave will in turn be even stronger. The fetch is related to the orbit of the wave and track of the storm.The longer the wind drags along the sea the more energy the wave will have. This can be seen not just in vertical height measurement but in wave period (the measurement of waves through time).
WAVES PERIOD:Time, in seconds, between the passage of consecutive wave crests past a fixed point. In general the longer the period the bigger the wave. Windswell or 'close interval' swells are under 10 seconds. Big 'ground swells' are 17-20+ seconds (note: a 20+ second swell needs storm force 50+kt winds blowing over a 1500 mile fetch to be fully developed' into 20-25' beasts; these 20 second waves can be felt 1000 feet down!). This is why they jack so much more, pulling large amounts of H2O off the outer reefs.

More generic marine definitions click this link http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marinedef.php

....All surf height observations and forecasts are for the full face surf height, from the trough to the crest of the wave.

Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores 15 Feet (8') 25 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Big Island 8 Feet (4'+) 12 Feet
West-Facing Shores - Remaining Islands 12 Feet (7') 20 Feet
South-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet
East-Facing Shores 8 Feet (4'+) 15 Feet

Surfer's Wall Photos

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