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645am OBS Thursday 9/29 Powered by Surfer, the Bar: Mana Mele Friday nite!

Fair day on the way with scattered clouds leeward, typical cloudy windward and adjacent shores. ENE trades filling to fresh (10-25mph). Small craft advisory for channels east of Moloka'i through Saturday.

BIG PICTURE UPDATED (drop down under Surf Report) . NNE mostly done, average ENE, tiny SSW. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF 7a, 12p, 3p, 5p trend/recap.

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North Shore:

Down & holding a micro 8 sec NNE: Sunset 0-1' to Rocky Pt 1', Pipe 0-inches, Chuns 0-inches', Laniakea 0-1 barely 2', Haleiwa 0-inches'; Light ENE trades early filling to moderate/fresh; broken clouds.
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West:

Down and dropping on micro N wrap and holding the SSW. Makaha is 0 -1' with clean light offshores and mostly clear. Good diving, paddling.
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Town:

Holding a tiny 45 sec SSW. Surf is mostly 0-1.5' (weak 2' sets) from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls, Piles to Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens are 1 occ weak 2'; clean with light ENE trades filling to moderate then fresh late morn' and scattered clouds.
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Diamond Head:

Holding a 14 sec SSW. Surf is 1-2' or waist high max. Light-moderate off to side offshore so it's bumpy again & higher ENE trades by mid-late morning from Right Hands, Cliffs to Lighthouse; broken clouds.
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Sandy's:

Holding the 8 sec ENE trade and trace SSW. Surf is 1-2 occ 3' & side offshores thanks to ENE trades from Full Pt - 1/2 point area & from Pipe-little's to Middle Peaks-into Chambers; ENE trades filling to fresh paces & fairly cloudy.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on the 8 sec ENE trade swell. Surf is 1-2-3' with the biggest sets just outside from the middle to the left & 2.5' surf filling the inside sandbar. Fun and consistent 1-2+' surf for Keiki's. Early light-moderate ENE trades filling to fresh with onshore chop and typical cloudiness.

Weather

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 87°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
23mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 87°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph NE

Saturday
with="64"

Temp
min:
75°F
max: 87°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph ENE

Sunday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 87°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
18mph ENE

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
74°F
max: 87°F

Chance of Rain

Wind:
13mph ENE

Range:
10-25mph E-NE
small craft adv for channels
Range:
10-25mph E-NE
small craft adv for channels
Range:
10-25mph E-NE
small craft adv for channels
Range:
10-20mph E-NE
no advsrys
Range:
5-15mph SE

North

Thursday
09/29
NE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Dropping
4' 8 sec; fairly clean, partly cloudy
Friday
09/30
NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Dropping

Saturday
10/01
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Sunday
10/02
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Monday
10/03
W-NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Rising Later
1' 10 sec
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West

Thursday
09/29
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding
smooth, clear
Friday
09/30
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Saturday
10/01
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Sunday
10/02
COMBO
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Monday
10/03
W-NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Rising Later

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South

Thursday
09/29
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding
1' 14 sec; clean, fairly clear
Friday
09/30
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Rising
1.5', 15 sec
Saturday
10/01
SSE+SSW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Sunday
10/02
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Monday
10/03
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding
.5' 12 sec
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east

Thursday
09/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Holding
6' 9 sec; choppy, mostly cloudy
Friday
09/30
NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Rising Later

Saturday
10/01
NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

Sunday
10/02
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Holding

Monday
10/03
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Dropping

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Current Swells:

Thursday   09/29
Primary: Holding  E-NE  1-3' surf at 8 sec
Secondary: Holding  SSE+SSW  1-2' surf at 14sec
Third: Holding  NE  Almost 2' surf at 9 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Thursday   09/29
Small craft advisory for channels east of Moloka'i
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Sailing Report:

Thursday   09/29
Good for all shores with 10-25 ENE Trades
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Diving Report:

Thursday   09/29
Good for West; good for deeper North, good for South, fair for select East spots

Oahu

SUNSET
Thursday   09/29
NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate
fair to good

ROCKY POINT
Thursday   09/29
NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades moderate
fair to good

Pipeline
Thursday   09/29
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
ENE Trades moderate
smooth

HALEIWA
Thursday   09/29
NE
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades moderate
semi-clean

MAKAHA
Thursday   09/29
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
ENE Trades light-moderate
smooth

ALA MOANA
Thursday   09/29
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
ENE Trades moderate
good

Waikiki
Thursday   09/29
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate
clean

Diamond Head
Thursday   09/29
COMBO
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Sandy Beach
Thursday   09/29
ENE+SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Makapuu
Thursday   09/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
ENE Trades moderate
choppy

Maui

Hookipa
Thursday   09/29
NE
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Honolua
Thursday   09/29
NE
Haw: 0-1/2
Face: 0-1
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
semi-clean

Kihei
Thursday   09/29
S-SW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate
good

Hana
Thursday   09/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Lahaina
Thursday   09/29
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades light-moderate
good

Kauai

Hanalei
Thursday   09/29
NE
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair to good

Majors
Thursday   09/29
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate
good

Poipu
Thursday   09/29
S-SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
ENE Trades moderate
good

Kapaa
Thursday   09/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Thursday   09/29
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
choppy

Kohala
Thursday   09/29
MIX
Haw: 0
Face: 0
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
diving , paddling and fishin'

Kona
Thursday   09/29
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
ENE Trades moderate
smooth

Hilo
Thursday   09/29
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
bumpy

Kau
Thursday   09/29
COMBO
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
ENE Trades moderate-fresh
fair

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

BIG PICTURE Wednesday 9.28.16

La Nina is in force this season as we see below average swell into Oct. At this point we only see a 4’ NW Tuesday 10/4 an even smaller NW Sat. the 8th before we finally get a real NW filling the 10th and peaking near 8’ on Tuesday the 11th. And since that’s 2 weeks out we can’t give it a solid claim.

NPAC
The Jet has been split with one branch in the Bering sea and on under the Aleutians with weak winds. A typical La Nina set up as the cooler ocean temps ‘steal’ energy from these large upper air currents 30,000 feet up. This week we see a bit more promise as the southern branch begins to consolidate off Japan and nose past the dateline. Wind speeds are still relatively weak so not much support for surface gale low development. High Pressures still exert more force against the Lows than visa versa.
#1 What we saw Tuesday from the N to NNW was a head high (3’ local) 9 sec warm up/get in shape session. It came from a High pressure to our NW last weekend tracking east about 1200 N or 40N lat. A fetch on the east flank nosed to about 600 miles. The event should be more and more NNE as it fades later Wednesday onward.
#2 A Low is on the charts today on the dateline about 1200 miles NW but the fetch is very weak. If we’re lucky we might see a couple 2’ NW sets at 10 sec. this Friday. But even this is generous.
#3 A Low comes down ESE off the Kuril Is. Thursday 29th and then veers east Friday 30th across the dateline centered 1500 mi NW. Its near gale fetch on the west flank won’t push out much more than a waist/chest high event at 11 sec filling Tuesday 4th and fading the 5th.
#4 Getting a little better: Wed the 5th a Low comes off the Kurils again tracking east and spreading to off Kamchatka and not only passing the 180 dateline Wednesday it noses to the 170 longitude 600 miles closer. This means less time for swell decay on the 20’ seas from the 35kt winds. WW3 hints for a small NW filling to 2’ Saturday the 8th and peaking near 4’ Sunday.
#5 In one day the models completely downgrade this 5th event. Yesterday we saw our first early gender bender (warm to cold core low) give us momentary adrenaline of 8’ surf. Models now are calling for a weak storm NE of the Philippines Oct 1st. The track starts NW then is N as it touches the southern tip of Japan by Oct 3rd Then it crawls up the coast thru Tuesday the 4th when it’s track veers NE then East by the 5th but it’s not longer the hefty winter caliber cold core Low but barely a gale. WW3 first fantasy was 20 sec forerunners Monday the 10th and 8’ surf Tuesday 11th. Now it will barely be 2’. What a difference a day makes. As I said “These storms are even trickier to call than regular Lows so don’t get hopes high just keep heads up”. Now our heads are down in sorrow.

SPAC

Right now it’s tiny with two swells, one a 13 sec SSW and one a 15 sec SSE. But barely 2’…all background level stuff with just 1’ swell.
We can’t say that it hasn’t been consistent & rideable for town but we’ve never made it to epic. We’re in for more of the same into October. Currently the southern Jet where we get our swell from is embarrassingly weak with the Northern branch dominant and zonal. High pressures have a solid hold off the east coast of NZL right where we get our typical SSW’s.
Then by Sunday the 2nd a nice ENE Jet flow with 140kts is in place. By Monday it hits 160kts with a NE tilt under and pointing to Tahiti; its greatest strength between the dateline and 600 east of there or 160W longitude. There’s one more deepening of the Jet further to the east for a day before the Jet completely breaks down by Wed. the 5th.
So the surf we have currently came from negligible sources early to mid last week from the Taz to East of Hawaii. The SSE came from a Low just outside of our window so we have sideband SSE swell.
#1 A soft Low tracking NE up off the Ice shelf thru Thursday may send up some 1’ 15 sec SSW next Thursday the 6th. This equates to 2’ local or waist high. More of the same.
#2 A slightly stronger system comes up the same way and could give us 1.5’ swell at 14 sec Friday the 7th. So, chance of chest high.
#3 A good size Low is on the chart Sunday Monday Tuesday off the Ice shelf below Tahiti with w NE track sending most its swell off to our east. We could get some 16 sec SSE surf up to waist high Monday the 10th.
#4 Models hint a powerful Taz storm coming in Thursday Oct 8th….heads up only for a SW 16 sec background boost to waist high Thursday the 13th. Same ole same ole.


Tropics and Trade Swell

The new High is planning to stick around NE of us keeping fresh 10-25mph trades and 3’ trade swell. We could see longer fetches from upstream trades (and Ulika) allowing the surf to thicken this weekend as the trades back to moderate 10-20. So there are minor variations on the trade swells from near and far.

The Tropics have Ulika weakening to a T storm then depression as it tracks North then West toward us this week. Luckily it’s not going to cause issues but a little more moisture this Sunday is possible. Surf should reach 3’ maybe 4’ Sunday. Then go back to ‘normal’ next week.








Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4+ local) 15 Feet (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)

Surfer's Wall Photos

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