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OBS 645am Monday Jan 16th. Powered by Surf n Sea Blow Out

Fairly cloudy early with light Easterly trades (5-10 mph) into variable for Oahu-Kauai with afternoon seabreeze. Trades for Maui-Big I.

Small NW, tiny SSW and ENE. Call the SNN Hotline 596-SURF 7a, 12p, 3p, 5p trend/recap.

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North Shore:

Holding 13 sec NW. Surf is 3-5' well overhead range and perfect conditions. Sunset is 3-5', Pipe is 2-4'; Chuns 3-4', Laniakea 2-4' (clean); Ali'i Beach Park is 2-4' occ.+. Clean early with super light trades and scattered-broken clouds.
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West:

Down on the NW swell. Makaha is 2-3' maybe 4' and inconsistent with most sets in the chest to head-high range. Smooth early with light offshores to onshore seabrz toward late morning and fairly clear.
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Town:

Down and dropping SSW and 14 sec NW mix. Surf is 1-2' with top sets in the waist high range; semi weak broken form from Kewalos to Courts, Bowls to Piles to Kaisers. Threes-Pops-Queens mostly 1-2' with early clean conditions and light off-shores and likely seabrz toward midday; scattered clouds.
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Diamond Head:

Down and dropping SSW + NW combo. Surf is 1-2' with fairly weak, decent but peaky w/ early light trades for clean sets from Lighthouse to Right hands, Cliffs etc; semi cloudy.
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Sandy's:

Down and dropping on the combo of tiny SSW and windswell. Surf is 1-2' with most sets in the waist high range with fairly weak from Full Point through 1/2-point through Middle peaks to Gas Chambers. Slightly bumpy with light trades early and some residual but clearing haze.
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East Makapu'u:

Holding on the small 9 sec ENE and mix of fading N energy. Surf is 1-2' with top sets breaking inside the far left sand bar. Alittle less for Keiki's. Light onshores early with a mix of clouds and mild vog.

Weather

Monday
with="64"

Temp
min:
70°F
max: 88°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
8mph ENE

Tuesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 87°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph NE

Wednesday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 88°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
18mph E

Thursday
with="64"

Temp
min:
73°F
max: 86°F

Overcast

Wind:
13mph ENE

Friday
with="64"

Temp
min:
72°F
max: 86°F

Partly Cloudy

Wind:
13mph NE

Range:
5-15mph E-NE

Range:
5-15+mph E-NE

Range:
5-15mph E-NE

Range:
5-10mph E-NE

Range:
10-25mph NE

North

Tuesday
01/17
W-NW
Haw: 3-4+
Face: 5-7+
Rising Later
4' 12s to 6' later
Wednesday
01/18
W-NW
Haw: 10-15
Face: 15-25’
Rising
12' 16s 8pm w/ 18' surf
Thursday
01/19
W-NW
Haw: 8-12+
Face: 14-20+
Dropping
11' 16s
Friday
01/20
W-NW
Haw: 6-10
Face: 10-18
Dropping

Saturday
01/21
W-NW
Haw: 5-8
Face: 8-14
Rising
7' 14s
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West

Tuesday
01/17
W-NW
Haw: 2-3+
Face: 3-5+
Rising Later

Wednesday
01/18
W-NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Rising
12' later
Thursday
01/19
W-NW
Haw: 8-12
Face: 14-20
Holding

Friday
01/20
W-NW
Haw: 6-8+
Face: 10-15+
Dropping Slowly

Saturday
01/21
W-NW
Haw: 4-6+
Face: 6-10+
Dropping

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South

Tuesday
01/17
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Holding

Wednesday
01/18
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Thursday
01/19
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Friday
01/20
S-SW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Holding

Saturday
01/21
SW
Haw: 1 occ 2
Face: 1-2 occ 3
Rising
1' 18 sec
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east

Tuesday
01/17
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Holding

Wednesday
01/18
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising

Thursday
01/19
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Holding

Friday
01/20
E-NE
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Rising Later

Saturday
01/21
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Rising

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Current Swells:

Tuesday   01/17
Primary: Dropping  NW  4' surf at 12 sec
Secondary: Dropping  S-SW  1.5' surf at 10 sec
Third: Holding  E-NE  2' surf at 8 sec
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Marine Warnings:

Tuesday   01/17
None
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Sailing Report:

Tuesday   01/17
Fair for most shores as light trades return (5-15mph)
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Diving Report:

Tuesday   01/17
Fair for deeper North, good for deeper West facing shores, good for deeper South, good for most East dive spots

Oahu

SUNSET
Tuesday   01/17
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Trades light
good

ROCKY POINT
Tuesday   01/17
NW
Haw: 2-4
Face: 3-7
Trades light
glassy

Pipeline
Tuesday   01/17
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Trades light
good

HALEIWA
Tuesday   01/17
NW
Haw: 2-3
Face: 3-5
Trades light
clean

MAKAHA
Tuesday   01/17
NW SSW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Calm to trades
smooth am...mushy pm

ALA MOANA
Tuesday   01/17
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Trades light
clean

Waikiki
Tuesday   01/17
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades light
clean

Diamond Head
Tuesday   01/17
S-SW
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light
good

Sandy Beach
Tuesday   01/17
S+N
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light
smooth

Makapuu
Tuesday   01/17
E
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light
fairly clean

Maui

Hookipa
Tuesday   01/17
NW
Haw: 1-2 occ 3
Face: 2-4 occ 5
Trades light-moderate
fair to good

Honolua
Tuesday   01/17
NW
Haw: 0-1
Face: 0-1.5
Trades light-moderate
good

Kihei
Tuesday   01/17
NW
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades light
smooth

Hana
Tuesday   01/17
E-NE
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Calm to light
bumpy

Lahaina
Tuesday   01/17
S-SW
Haw: 0-2
Face: 0-3
Calm to trades
smooth

Kauai

Hanalei
Tuesday   01/17
NW
Haw: 1-3
Face: 2-5
Trades light
glassy

Majors
Tuesday   01/17
NW
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Calm to trades
smooth am...mushy pm

Poipu
Tuesday   01/17
S-SW
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Calm to trades
smooth

Kapaa
Tuesday   01/17
E-NE
Haw: 1-2
Face: 1-3
Trades light
semi-clean

Big Island

Hamakua Coast
Tuesday   01/17
COMBO
Haw: 1-2+
Face: 1-3+
Trades moderate
bumpy

Kohala
Tuesday   01/17
COMBO
Haw: 0
Face: 0
Trades light
good

Kona
Tuesday   01/17
COMBO
Haw: 0-1.5
Face: 0-2
Trades light
good

Hilo
Tuesday   01/17
E-NE
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Trades light
slightly bumpy

Kau
Tuesday   01/17
COMBO
Haw: 1-2 occ +
Face: 1-3 occ +
Trades moderate
fair

Weather

Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is.- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
South-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4'+ local) 15 Feet (8' local)

Big Picture

BIG PICTURE Friday 1/13/17

NPAC

The Jet is long low and consolidated off Japan and ends up reaching all the way to the west coast over the next week. Thus, plenty BIG surf in the forecast.

Recent: The gorgeous 15 sec NW on Thursday up to near 10’ at Sunset and 8’ at Pipe from a compact ENE tracking Low on the dateline last Monday-Tuesday. It had 40-50kt pockets and 20+ seas. We ramped first 4 hours as dawn was considerably smaller. Conditions were epic with variables to SE. Some seabreeze did kick in but Da Hui Shootout still scored.

#2 A much bigger WNW (290-310) is building all day Friday peaking near 20’ around 8pm after dark. A Low off Japan was spawning Sunday the 6th and really grew by Monday-Tuesday with some 55-65kts and 30’ seas nearly 2500 miles out. The center tracked ENE for a spell but it produced a broad fetch. As the system elongated there was some captured fetch into Wednesday that nosed closer to us tho’ winds were weaker. 22 sec forerunners ‘popped’ on Waimea around 5pm. With more 20 sec reading in the morning about 8am. Around noonish surf should really ramp dangerously fast with 18 sec of 6+’ swell building to over 12’ ‘swell’ after dark. Surf could crack outer reefs by noon pending shadowing. A 6’ 18 sec open ocean swell can easily refract and shoal 10’ even 12’ surf at Sunset and Pipe. Lotsa water will be spilling over, outracing Thursdays declining episode. The limiting and confounding factor will be the degree of shadowing from Ni’ihau and Kauai which block from up to 294 degrees. Best to error on the overcall since danger is higher on swells of this magnitude. The long fetch means we’ll have a longer than normal event with surf cranking 15+’ Saturday dawn. Wrap should make it to town’s select reefs.

#3 This Sunday the 15th yet another ‘large and in charge’ storm moves east off Japan in the same region as the prior fatty. It’s another Super west with near hurricance force and 30+ seas moving our way. It’s spreads in wings about 1000 miles around reaching the dateline Monday. Tuesday it tightens up as it reaches 170 longitude or under 1200 away. The track is fast and by Thursday its half way to the NW coast. Still, WW3 predicts a building warning level WNW Wed the 18th into Thursday in the 12-18’ range again. Its early for confidence but not too early for a big heads up. None of these 2 WNW swells are near big enough nor peaking properly for the Eddie Aikau.

SPAC
The Jet down under has been useful as of the last couple weeks, troughs pointing our way for out of season SSW’s. The last one reached 4’ solid. The Taz sea has seen the most energy in the Jet but some flow has been getting out beyond. In fact, the next ‘meridional’ flow (opposite of zonal or west to east) happens Friday the 13th for a short time.

Recently (1&2): what a fun out of season run of SW to SSW events…esp with the light winds (not including seabreezes). The recent above average run came from 2 sources. One was south of us early January and the other was off the east coast of NZL for a SSW. We still had solid 3’ Thursday even plus’ but both is fading. Surf goes into hiding next week until a large but zonal Low is moving fast across the Taz this weekend into Monday. Don’t expect much as the track is not good. The storm was large and powerful so we can look for 1’ open swell at 18 sec the weekend of the 21-22nd. This means 2’ surf for us.

Trade Swell
Wind swell has been minimal or 2’ average from upstream trades. Local Trades won’t be back till Tuesday and for sure by Wednesday we’ll be back to the usual 10-20+.

The Tropics
So far they’re nothing forecasted on Hawaii for the next week or so.



Surf Advisory and Warning Criteria
Location/shoreline Advisory Warning
North-Facing Shores- 15 Feet faces (8' Local) 25 Feet faces (15' local)
West-Facing Shores - 12 Feet (7' local) 20 Feet (12' local)
West-Facing- Big Is. - 8 Feet (4'+ local) 12 Feet (7' local)
East-Facing Shores- 8 Feet (4+ local) 15 Feet (8’ local)

Tropical Storm - winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)
Category 1 - winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)
Category 2 - winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)
Category 3 - winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt)
Category 4 - winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt)
Category 5 - winds 156 mph and up (135+ kt)

Surfer's Wall Photos

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